ravensrule Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Looks like it is slowly going towards the middle ground models ie icon/cmc. I expect euro eventually heads that way too. I’ll take my 2” and be happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Looks like it is slowly going towards the middle ground models ie icon/cmc. I expect euro eventually heads that way too. We can still get a win that way, but it might involve rooting for the NS to just GTF out of the way enough instead of a sloppy phase 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, ravensrule said: I’ll take my 2” and be happy. Ditto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 The death knell. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I mean look...is it the moisture bomb we're looking for? No...it looks to be a 4-7 thang...and I mean...are we really gonna complain if that's our floor? 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 If it makes you feel better, NYC went from 20" to 2". 4 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, stormtracker said: If it makes you feel better, NYC went from 20" to 2". I can get on board with this any day of the week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, stormtracker said: If it makes you feel better, NYC went from 20" to 2". Now I’m ecstatic. Yea baby. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: If it makes you feel better, NYC went from 20" to 2". It does make me feel better 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We can still get a win that way, but it might involve rooting for the NS to just GTF out of the way enough instead of a sloppy phase The last time you said that that GL low screwed us over in March 2018 and in fact did NOT get out of the way...I remember that post distinctly for some reason, lol I'd rather not have to root for that...because that seems to be a chaotic needle thread that we don't do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If it makes you feel better, NYC went from 20" to 2". That's what happens when you lock in a hecs thread 6 days out. That's karma. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I mean look...is it the moisture bomb we're looking for? No...it looks to be a 4-7 thang...and I mean...are we really gonna complain if that's our floor? Nah I'd take that. Ya just hope it's not gonna get worse from here and go to a Euro solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 At least this GFS run knows where its supposed to put the death band damnit 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: The last time you said that that GL low screwed us over in March 2018 and in fact did NOT get out of the way. I remember that post distinctly for some reason, lol I'd rather not have to root for that...because that seems to be a chaotic needle thread that we don't do well. it is what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I mean look...is it the moisture bomb we're looking for? No...it looks to be a 4-7 thang...and I mean...are we really gonna complain if that's our floor? Since I got three whole inches today…no, no I would not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Is that a clipper on the gfs behind the weekend storm? That can't be?! Talk about a unicorn. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 One thing for sure though...to my amateur eyes the next couple weeks look cold and active on these models with the gulf looking open for business. Me thinks we'll have other chances even if this one doesn't work out...what say you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If it makes you feel better, NYC went from 20" to 2". worth it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 This is probably what the potential is with the scenario where the initial NS SW does not phase in and we need the STJ to go it mostly alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But Chuck said it was gonna rain so the huge snowstorm for the TN Valley into the Carolinas can't be right I said the Pacific pattern doesn't look anything like our snowstorm composite.. that could mean anything from the storm being more positive tilted, not happening, to rain, etc. It wasn't a good upper latitude H5. I'm going to get this one right.. we might get some light snow on the front end when -NAO is still in place, but the upper latitude pattern changes too quickly and the core is probably too warm or misses us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 This is probably what the potential is with the scenario where the initial NS SW does not phase in and we need the STJ to go it mostly aloneThis is pretty much an El Niño storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 GFS is weak sauce with the clipper at range no surprise, but wants to drop the hammer next week. PV is wobbling around the GL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I said the Pacific pattern doesn't look anything like our snowstorm composite.. that could mean anything from the storm being more positive tilted, not happening, to rain, etc. It wasn't a good upper latitude H5. I'm going to get this one right.. we might get some light snow on the front end when -NAO is still in place, but the upper latitude pattern changes too quickly and the core is probably too warm or misses us. but if the GFS is right, it'll be "suppressed" (good for me), not flip to rain, which is what you said if I recall correctly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Canada looked promising but it got shredded like the eagles defense against Jayden 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said: but if the GFS is right, it'll be "suppressed" (good for me), not flip to rain, which is what you said if I recall correctly I predict 0" from this storm in DC and Baltimore, maybe a dusting on the front end. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Sign me up 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I said the Pacific pattern doesn't look anything like our snowstorm composite.. that could mean anything from the storm being more positive tilted, not happening, to rain, etc. It wasn't a good upper latitude H5. I'm going to get this one right.. we might get some light snow on the front end when -NAO is still in place, but the upper latitude pattern changes too quickly and the core is probably too warm or misses us. That composite is skewed by a LOT of nino storms...its not as far off if you only look at cold enso non nino snowstorms. The fact we are not in a nino lowers our chances of a major snowstorm significantly, but often when we do get the fluke cold enso snowstorm they do not match the larger composite. Also, there is a huge difference IMO between the -PDO regime we've been in recently and the coming look with a full ridge bridge from the NAO all the way into the north pacific, and a trough underneith it towards Hawaii. It's not nearly as hostile and those other factors around it matter just as much. It's not our BEST snowstorm look but we've had snows in worse looks than that. Its maybe a 7/10 look imo. I don't think the HECS is likely but I think we have a legit threat at something like the ICON or tonights GFS run spit out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Canada looked promising but it got shredded like the eagles defense against Jayden wasn't that what the GFS was doing to this weekend's storm at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 17 minutes ago, andyhb said: The death knell. They really should be embarrassed. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts