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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?


mappy
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Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

I imagine there will be a better picture sometime on Wednesday?

Maybe sooner, the divergence that leads to the different paths happens at only about 72 hours...so its possible the models latch onto a singular evolution soon, maybe even tonight. 

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Everyone wants a big snowstorm, but we have a long stretch of cold coming...I'm ok with building a snowpack also!

We also haven’t had anything worthy in years when the nao block breaks. Thinking that heather is becoming a myth
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Just now, Ji said:


We also haven’t had anything worthy in years when the nao block breaks. Thinking that heather is becoming a myth

We had a very close miss with the storm Jan 31-Feb2 2021.  DC-Baltimore area got 3-6" but just north got 12" plus starting with my area.  Another storm threat in that window got suppressed.  Bad luck.  We did get a nice hit at the end of a blocking period in March 2018 which would have been a 20" storm had it happened just a few weeks earlier. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

ICON was half way between the NAM/Euro look at 84 hours and the GFS and we got a close miss on a major storm, and a minor snowfall. 

Rgem looked pretty good at the end. We're seeing a positive trend at least, whether modest or strong, it's positive. 

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We had a very close miss with the storm Jan 31-Feb2 2021.  DC-Baltimore area got 3-6" but just north got 12" plus starting with my area.  Another storm threat in that window got suppressed.  Bad luck.  We did get a nice hit at the end of a blocking period in March 2018 which would have been a 20" storm had it happened just a few weeks earlier. 

Was that the storm that gave us 7 inches in 2 days….the one where the rgem gave us 40 inches?
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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Rgem looked pretty good at the end. We're seeing a positive trend at least, whether modest or strong, it's positive. 

The threat is legit, just wish the Euro and GFS were on opposite sides right now lol

ETA:  its complicated though with multiple SWs having to play nice and phase, which does lower the odds it pulls it off, but also increases the chances the best model might miss it and you get a scenario like when the JMA schooled everyone in 2006.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:


She got rich of dumb moronic guys. The only
Thing keeping our economy going is only
Fans and hawk tua

My daughter was talking about why the vampire in her cartoon is blue, and my 10 year old son said..."it doesn't matter Vampires aren't real" and when she questioned how he knows said "because people are so stupid if they were real we would all be dead by now"

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

My daughter was talking about why the vampire in her cartoon is blue, and my 10 year old son said..."it doesn't matter Vampires aren't real" and when she questioned how he knows said "because people are so stupid if they were real we would all be dead by now"

smart kid

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Everyone wants a big snowstorm, but we have a long stretch of cold coming...I'm ok with building a snowpack also!

Hopefully some can come west to the mountains.

I’m not sure how Blacksburg Averages 24.7” of snow, but I’ve only been here a year and a half. Interesting to see there were 71.9” in 1996…

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