WesternFringe Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, weathercoins said: Lmao at them Tweeting this. Insane thing to write outside of this message board. https://x.com/fox5dc/status/1876422265123860495?s=46 One model had one run that said so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: One model had one run that said so The Make A Wish Model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: anybody notice a trend? They are all trending in the right direction! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I mean, yeah, you're right...we aren't in fantasy land with this one anymore...it's literally like 4.5 days away? Right now, the only take away is that PHL northward are favored for the extreme amounts and we're gonna get in on it, but prob not as much? And I'm OK with that tbh. If we can pull off a foot, I don't give a shit what anybody outside of this forum gets. I just want my tribe (Mid Atlantic) to get ours and if it's "only" a foot, ok then. We got a ways to go and the drama of the model runs is exciting. If the Euro joins the party within the next 24 hours, the honking will begin. Agreed. NYC *should* see more than us yearly, so if they get a HECS and we end up with a significant to major storm, so be it. That being said… that euro cluster waaay down in the Carolinas tells me the envelope is still wide open. Could be a monster for dc to BOS, could be offshore and a beach scraper, could be for us and miss them… can’t really discount any solution at this point, especially since the Euro and Canadian ensembles are a decent amount flatter than the gfs. Next 48 hours should be interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, jayyy said: Agreed. NYC *should* see more than us yearly, so if they get a HECS and we end up with a significant to major storm, so be it. That being said… that euro cluster waaay down in the Carolinas tells me the envelope is still wide open. Could be a monster for dc to BOS, could be offshore and a beach scraper, could be for us and miss them… can’t really discount any solution at this point, especially since the Euro and Canadian ensembles are a decent amount flatter than the gfs. Next 48 hours should be interesting to say the least. I think we will have a really good idea by 12z tomorrow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 10 minutes ago, jayyy said: Agreed. NYC *should* see more than us yearly, so if they get a HECS and we end up with a significant to major storm, so be it. That being said… that euro cluster waaay down in the Carolinas tells me the envelope is still wide open. Could be a monster for dc to BOS, could be offshore and a beach scraper, could be for us and miss them… can’t really discount any solution at this point, especially since the Euro and Canadian ensembles are a decent amount flatter than the gfs. Next 48 hours should be interesting to say the least. Based on the ensemble trends (thanks @brooklynwx99), It looks to me that a storm will strengthen and ride up underneath the block. The question now is whether or not it can gets its act together before it passes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 When the NYC weenies are already talking p-type along the coast and how much they are going to get. Makes for good entertainment in between runs 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I was looking at the models When out the corner of my eye I saw a pretty little gfs run approaching me I said, I've never seen a model Who looks so all alone Uh, could you use a euro little company? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Well...yeah..it's the 84 hour NAM, but it looks like....the 18z Euro tbh. Let's see what the rest of the 0z suite says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Nam looks pretty good if I must say so, and I must. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Well...yeah..it's the 84 hour NAM, but it looks like....the 18z Euro tbh. Let's see what the rest of the 0z suite says. Looks like a phase to me, but who knows if it would deliver or not. Big boys on deck anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, mitchnick said: Looks like a phase to me, but who knows if it would deliver or not. Big boys on deck anyway. I'm just comparing H5 looks. It's not exact, but it looks more like the Euro than GFS. But...it's the NAM. At 84 hours. So, there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Well...yeah..it's the 84 hour NAM, but it looks like....the 18z Euro tbh. Let's see what the rest of the 0z suite says.Like euro or gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Ji said: Like euro or gfs? Gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Don't laugh at the map, but it shows a picture very similar to Gfs with the elongated 5H trough. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500th&rh=2025010700&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Don't laugh at the map, but it shows a picture very similar to Gfs with the elongated 5H trough. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500th&rh=2025010700&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Here's the 18z Gfs version same time as Nam https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500th&rh=2025010700&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I'm in the "00Z NAM at f84 looks closer to the 18Z Euro at f90" camp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 A VERY good thread by Tomer: https://x.com/burgwx/status/1876446981427695730?t=a-tQxsazuaFUp2e8YcRQpw&s=19 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 You know people are bored when they’re debating the hour 84 NAM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, high risk said: I'm in the "00Z NAM at f84 looks closer to the 18Z Euro at f90" camp. NE folks like it a lot and believe it a phase as well, but it doesn't really matter for more than 6 hours anyway. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: A VERY good thread by Tomer: https://x.com/burgwx/status/1876446981427695730?t=a-tQxsazuaFUp2e8YcRQpw&s=19 Yea, let's reel this one in for everyone. Classic RIC -> BOS event. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 14 minutes ago, high risk said: I'm in the "00Z NAM at f84 looks closer to the 18Z Euro at f90" camp. Whew. Feel better with Super backup. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 37 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nam looks pretty good if I must say so, and I must. I don’t think it would have got it done. The NS is not digging behind and getting out in front. That elongates the trough and won’t allow it to amplify and go negative which is what we need. The gfs so far is the only model really diving that NS Sw down behind the STJ wave. Others are close but once they miss that connection around hour 72 it’s over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 To clarify a minor to moderate event could be possible without that NS SW phasing in. But it wouldn’t have the GFS upside 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, psuhoffman said: To clarify a minor to moderate event could be possible without that NS SW phasing in. But it wouldn’t have the GFS upside If this goes that way how much do you think the region would get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: To clarify a minor to moderate event could be possible without that NS SW phasing in. But it wouldn’t have the GFS upside I'll shoot squirrel. I don't need a elk! Consequential measurable snowfall works for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Icon will probably work for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: If this goes that way how much do you think the region would get? It isn't worth speculating on that, we haven't even figured out which scenario we're looking at yet. There are several possible paths...I will say that if we don't get the full phase between the STJ and the two NS waves the next best possible solutions would be for the NS to amplify on its own (but it might be difficult to get it to track far enough south, or to get the STJ wave to track far enough NW without the NW interference (a sloppy partial phase might just shunt it south and stall its development until too late). But both of those have more limited upside than the full phased bomb GFS solutions of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'll shoot squirrel. I don't need a elk! Consequential measurable snowfall works for me. Fair enough I was just comparing the NAM to the GFS like solutions...a more modest event is still possible from where the NAM left off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It isn't worth speculating on that, we haven't even figured out which scenario we're looking at yet. There are several possible paths...I will say that if we don't get the full phase between the STJ and the two NS waves the next best possible solutions would be for the NS to amplify on its own (but it might be difficult to get it to track far enough south, or to get the STJ wave to track far enough NW without the NW interference (a sloppy partial phase might just shunt it south and stall its development until too late). But both of those have more limited upside than the full phased bomb GFS solutions of course. I imagine there will be a better picture sometime on Wednesday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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