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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?


mappy
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6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why do you say? That's not at least progress?

It is. But we are under 5 days now. If the gfs is going to score a coup we need a bigger jump imo. 

Someone else said it, end result probably going to be up in-between the 2 like a CMC/ICON blend.

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13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It is. But we are under 5 days now. If the gfs is going to score a coup we need a bigger jump imo. 

Someone else said it, end result probably going to be up in-between the 2 like a CMC/ICON blend.

Dude we seen models jump massively at this range sometimes 

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38 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I mean, yeah, you're right...we aren't in fantasy land with this one anymore...it's literally like 4.5 days away?   Right now, the only take away is that PHL northward are favored for the extreme amounts and we're gonna get in on it, but prob not as much?  And I'm OK with that tbh.  If we can pull off a foot, I don't give a shit what anybody outside of this forum gets.  I just want my tribe (Mid Atlantic)  to get ours and if it's "only" a foot, ok then.

We got a ways to go and the drama of the model runs is exciting.   If the Euro joins the party within the next 24 hours, the honking will begin.    

IF it does pan out, and that's a huge if, It's almost a nerfed version of Feb 2010, and a buffed version of Jan 2024.

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I mean, yeah, you're right...we aren't in fantasy land with this one anymore...it's literally like 4.5 days away?   Right now, the only take away is that PHL northward are favored for the extreme amounts and we're gonna get in on it, but prob not as much?  And I'm OK with that tbh.  If we can pull off a foot, I don't give a shit what anybody outside of this forum gets.  I just want my tribe (Mid Atlantic)  to get ours and if it's "only" a foot, ok then.
We got a ways to go and the drama of the model runs is exciting.   If the Euro joins the party within the next 24 hours, the honking will begin.    

Agreed. NYC *should* see more than us yearly, so if they get a HECS and we end up with a significant to major storm, so be it. That being said… that euro cluster waaay down in the Carolinas tells me the envelope is still wide open. Could be a monster for dc to BOS, could be offshore and a beach scraper, could be for us and miss them… can’t really discount any solution at this point, especially since the Euro and Canadian ensembles are a decent amount flatter than the gfs. Next 48 hours should be interesting to say the least.
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6 minutes ago, jayyy said:


Agreed. NYC *should* see more than us yearly, so if they get a HECS and we end up with a significant to major storm, so be it. That being said… that euro cluster waaay down in the Carolinas tells me the envelope is still wide open. Could be a monster for dc to BOS, could be offshore and a beach scraper, could be for us and miss them… can’t really discount any solution at this point, especially since the Euro and Canadian ensembles are a decent amount flatter than the gfs. Next 48 hours should be interesting to say the least.

I think we will have a really good idea by 12z tomorrow

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10 minutes ago, jayyy said:


Agreed. NYC *should* see more than us yearly, so if they get a HECS and we end up with a significant to major storm, so be it. That being said… that euro cluster waaay down in the Carolinas tells me the envelope is still wide open. Could be a monster for dc to BOS, could be offshore and a beach scraper, could be for us and miss them… can’t really discount any solution at this point, especially since the Euro and Canadian ensembles are a decent amount flatter than the gfs. Next 48 hours should be interesting to say the least.

Based on the ensemble trends (thanks @brooklynwx99), It looks to me that a storm will strengthen and ride up underneath the block.  The question now is whether or not it can gets its act together before it passes us.  

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I was looking at the models
When out the corner of my eye
I saw a pretty little gfs run approaching me
I said, I've never seen a model
Who looks so all alone
Uh, could you use a euro little company?  

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Well...yeah..it's the 84 hour NAM, but it looks like....the 18z Euro tbh.   Let's see what the rest of the 0z suite says.

Looks like a phase to me, but who knows if it would deliver or not. Big boys on deck anyway. 

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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Don't laugh at the map, but it shows a picture very similar to Gfs with the elongated 5H trough.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500th&rh=2025010700&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Here's the 18z Gfs version same time as Nam

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500th&rh=2025010700&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

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