Kevin Reilly Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Several members in the mid 950s are it approaches New England Wind machine! Is this coastal any relation to the absolute monster right now up in the Gulf of Alaska heading north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 47 minutes ago, stormtracker said: MECS/HECS level. But if yall want me to lower the criteria, I can. Again, listen...8-12 is fucking great. I save the key work for 12 or more. But that's just me. I was just asking. I think it’s fair to be selective. 12”+ is fine, that’s actually only slightly more rare than 8” events since many of those go on to reach 12” also. We’re kinda a boom or bust snow climo here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I would go with 12+ for the folks. 18+ is HOLY FOLKS. So...Papal approval then! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 39 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: People were saying the northern folks are due in actuality, give the snow to @North Balti Zen now! Approved 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 This is almost under 120 hours we should start to see one model cave soon…. I thought the gfs was weaker with the N lobe so I’m shocked it tucked even more…Interesting storm to track, euro shortly.. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 31 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Are we getting into Folks, Jaws, @Bob Chill OMG surprise face territory? I'm not sure about this one. I do like my location this time. Overrunning precip zips north and I have room to spare in the mids/surface... for now... lol. Things are tricky as that slug comes up. I'd like to think I get a 2-4 deal before things fall apart if thats how it breaks. I prob won't get any extra effects from rapid deepening. That's likely well north of me. But I'm in an OK spot for a cohesive storm too. Short story is its becoming likely another winter wx make is coming for both our yards. Impacts TBD. I think I stand a better chance for accum snow than you guys with a weaker/messier upper level system. You guys would smoke me with a bomb but that's what I'm rooting for no matter what. 18z gefs likes the more bomby idea but the gefs is a cult of the op at this range lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Several members in the mid 950s are it approaches New England Nice wrap around for Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Bob Chill said: I'm not sure about this one. I do like my location this time. Overrunning precip zips north and I have room to spare in the mids/surface... for now... lol. Things are tricky as that slug comes up. I'd like to think I get a 2-4 deal before things fall apart if thats how it breaks. I prob won't get any extra effects from rapid deepening. That's likely well north of me. But I'm in an OK spot for a cohesive storm too. Short story is its becoming likely another winter wx make is coming for both our yards. Impacts TBD. I think I stand a better chance for accum snow than you guys with a weaker/messier upper level system. You guys would smoke me with a bomb but that's what I'm rooting for no matter what. 18z gefs likes the more bomby idea but the gefs is a cult of the op at this range lol Always good to hear from you, Bob! I hope the new digs are working out well...those photos you've sent over the past few months are amazing! Agree...another winter weather event is likely going to affect us this upcoming weekend. Details, as you say, TBD (as always!). I feel reasonably confident or at least hopeful that a decent event for many of us is a good possibility. Doesn't even have to be a bomb, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 39 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: You're right. But nobody is paying for WB so those Kuchie works of art can stay hidden I think Kuchara gets a bad rap. Often when snowfall is low it’s due to a miss on meso banding and qpf was low. In this case the best lift missing the DGX also hurt ratios and kuchera was a bit high. But I’ve seen kuchera be more accurate than 10-1 maps more often than not. I’d never use Kuchera if I was in the UHI or near water. You have to know climo. But 10-1 are way too low up here most of the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 7 minutes ago, Heisy said: This is almost under 120 hours we should start to see one model cave soon…. I thought the gfs was weaker with the N lobe so I’m shocked it tucked even more… Interesting storm to track, euro shortly.. . Here you go Heisey. 12z Gem at 90hrs top and 18z Gem at 84hrs along with a link for all 18z Gem if you're looking for something to do. Lol https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=cmc_gdps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 55 minutes ago, Amped said: Not saying the track is correct, but if it is, the jackpot should be Deep Creek Lake to Mount Washington. Depends on the phase. This is a miller b hybrid not a pure miller A. That’s ok we get crushed on miller b hybrids that have a STJ component sometimes. Its pure NS miller Bs that always fail for us. But these phase bombing lows often have a very tight wound CCB as they get going and the snow ends up closer to the SLP track than you would see in a mature miller a gulf low crawling up the coast. Sometimes the rain snow line collapses in close to the MSLP in these. 47 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The problem is we might flirt with danger with a wetter storm. As always...thread the needle shit down our way Unfortunately we have to flirt with disaster to get the win due to what I said above. It’s not a pure mature miller a that will have an expansive CCB precip field. The NS wave on top will prevent that until it phases and starts to bomb. It’s another delicate situation but sometimes these work out. Not everything can be Feb 2010 or Jan 2016 where some split flow STJ wave can be seen a week out workout much doubt. Wish it was that easy more often. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 18z Euro...Meh. Not budging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: agree. So you use 10:1 and make adjustments. or start at 12:1 and make adjustments. I'd rather just know the amount of QPF a model is spitting out and figure it out from there. Homey don't need an algo. Oh I think that’s how it should be done to make an actual forecast. But if we’re posting a map either will have errors. 10-1 will be too high near the R/S line or in places stuck between bands and too low in jack zones. Kuchera the reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Euro still much different with N branch, one model is going to cave soon, icon/cmc is a decent compromise I guess. Should be a really interesting 00z suite . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: Euro still much different with N branch, one model is going to cave soon, icon/cmc is a decent compromise I guess. Should be a really interesting 00z suite . Is euro still holding energy back in the southwest or just not timing the phasing to our advantage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 the 18z GFS brings back the cold at the end of the run, with snow to New Orleans at 384, yeah, that's happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 13 minutes ago, Heisy said: Euro still much different with N branch, one model is going to cave soon, icon/cmc is a decent compromise I guess. Should be a really interesting 00z suite . Does the euro show any accumulation? Or is it just a complete miss? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I would take my chances with the CMC as well https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Does the euro show any accumulation? Or is it just a complete miss? Maybe some light snow verbatim but no accumulation worth taking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 It’s so rare we get the euro and gfs to both have a storm. And it’s usually the euro doesn’t have it while the gfs does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Ok here. I made a scale. Tell me if yall agree 3-6 yo! 4-10 guys 10+ FOLKS better? I dunno. lol. maybe 12+? This is a democracy. Your play by play is one of the highlights of this forum! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 18z run comparison of Euro, Gfs, and Ukie at 66hrs since that's as far out as Ukie run goes on Pivotal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Twilly05 said: Your play by play is one of the highlights of this forum! I like doing it a lot. I'm legit terrible at it, but at the same time I can get the gist of what's going on. With big events I try to be as conservative as possible and not throw out false hope. I keep saying it, but I'd rather be right than first or premature. But sometimes you get that H5 look early on where you know. Like you can see it coming from like 8 panels away. Haven't been that confident in a look yet, but I reckon we'll get a good run like that this year. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z run comparison of Euro, Gfs, and Ukie at 66hrs since that's as far out as Ukie run goes on Pivotal. Hard to have too many opinions judging from that comparison. UK seems more GFS like than Euro but that’s a WHAG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I like doing it a lot. I'm legit terrible at it, but at the same time I can get the gist of what's going on. With big events I try to be as conservative as possible and not throw out false hope. I keep saying it, but I'd rather be right than first or premature. But sometimes you get that H5 look early on where you know. Like you can see it coming from like 8 panels away. Haven't been that confident in a look yet, but I reckon we'll get a good run like that this year. Sad that we’ll prob get it on a storm 200 hrs out and that’ll be the peak of the tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I like doing it a lot. I'm legit terrible at it, but at the same time I can get the gist of what's going on. With big events I try to be as conservative as possible and not throw out false hope. I keep saying it, but I'd rather be right than first or premature. But sometimes you get that H5 look early on where you know. Like you can see it coming from like 8 panels away. Haven't been that confident in a look yet, but I reckon we'll get a good run like that this year. That's what makes you the best at it. We had someone similar in the SE forum when I lived down there (h/t @burgertime) before he moved off to Europe. His go-to was "BOOM!" I'll gladly take either a "BOOM!" or a "FOLKS." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 18z Euro Ensemble has some members with a tucked in surface low close to the coast at h120. Waiting on graphics. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, wxmeddler said: 18z Euro Ensemble has some members with a tucked in surface low close to the coast at h120. Waiting on graphics. Get as graphical as you can. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 5 days is a long way out, but it’s also kind of not. We’re about 48 hours from having a general idea about the evolution at h5 going into this thing. Awesome that we have something to track again so soon. I think many are expecting a NYC - BOS special but I wouldnt be so sure about that. The overall pattern - kind of a Nina hybrid - does tend to favor coastal locations further south. Last night’s Delmarva special depiction is certainly within the realm of possibilities. Going to take a pretty negative trof to bring this big storm all the way up the coast to New England. TBH, I like our chances better than theirs. Just a hunch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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