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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?


mappy
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2 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

I actually love this run for one reason - it's sloppier and still get's the job done with the phase and popping the sfc low in a decent spot along the coast. It shows that there is *some* room for error here with a win still possible board-wide. 

Regardless, 0Z will be telling on whether the GFS is making up for it's horrendous h5 forecasting for this previous storm or if it's still out to lunch. 

Me too, and I love that the low is actually "west-er" because it starts to set up a middle ground of SLP tracks that still work well. 

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Just now, Amped said:

Not saying the track is correct, but if it is, the jackpot should be Deep Creek Lake to Mount Washington.

Definitely did think with that track MBY would be in the meat of it, but I won't scrutinize too closely at d5, especially until the GFS has company in its camp. 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Not mad at it.   We know we have potential for way better.  Or we "settle" for this.   I'll take half a loaf over none.

Ya it’s not the euro so there that. I’d be buying this right now if I could. I’m sure I’ll get two flakes instead though. 

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You live in the hills and 10-12" is HECS like?  Hey, I respect it.  We all have our criteria.    

Like I said, somebody will have the pretty maps soon.  SV sucks ass and the snowfall could be more impressive than I see

Today was underwhelming up here today. 

Hoping Saturday is better.

We shall see.

Glad DC got the goods today! 

You all were due .

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

MECS/HECS level.  But if yall want me to lower the criteria, I can.   Again, listen...8-12 is fucking great.     I save the key work for 12 or more.  But that's just me.

Let the man break out "folks" whenever the hell he damn well pleases! Ha

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Just now, Dendrimer77 said:

Let the man break out "folks" whenever the hell he damn well pleases! Ha

Ha, it's all good.  I'm not mad about it.  I just like when we all bond and have a good time.  That's why I made that our war/rally cry.  I'm open to a consensus on what it should mean.   I might just shut up and just throw up accumulation numbers.   

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Rant:: Let's do 10:1 posts for snow maps. If you want to do Kuchera.. Fine.. I like Kuchera when we are borderline and it cuts down totals because 10:1 is unlikely, but it seems always overdone and it is annoying to keep seeing them. Do 10:1 maps and then we will let mets to do analysis on dendrites when we get close. 

 

 

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Just now, Chris78 said:

Today was underwhelming up here today. 

Hoping Saturday is better.

We shall see.

Glad DC got the goods today! 

You all were due .

My location as well, forecast was 6 to 8. Total here was 3.5 inches. 

Saturday has potential, might even trend colder. 

Mount Holly states -    

It will still take several model
runs to get a handle on this system. For now, will follow NBM PoPs
and carry slight chance-chance PoPs over the area Friday night
through Saturday, and even though forecast high temperatures are
above freezing on Saturday, based on wet-bulb temperatures, the
dominant p-type would be snow.

High pressure returns on Sunday and Monday.
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1 minute ago, frd said:

My location as well, forecast was 6 to 8. Total here was 3.5 inches. 

Saturday has potential, might even trend colder. 

Mount Holly states -    

It will still take several model
runs to get a handle on this system. For now, will follow NBM PoPs
and carry slight chance-chance PoPs over the area Friday night
through Saturday, and even though forecast high temperatures are
above freezing on Saturday, based on wet-bulb temperatures, the
dominant p-type would be snow.

High pressure returns on Sunday and Monday.

Unfortunately you and I have to hope for different things since we're about 4 hours apart in location 

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ok here.  I made a scale.   Tell me if yall agree

3-6 yo!

4-10 guys

10+ FOLKS

better?  I dunno. lol. maybe 12+?   This is a democracy.  

With how shitty winter have been lately I’d take a folks for 6”+ haha 

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ok here.  I made a scale.   Tell me if yall agree

3-6 yo!

4-10 guys

10+ FOLKS

better?  I dunno. lol. maybe 12+?   This is a democracy.  

1-3... "hmm" or "hey"
Otherwise this is solid. 10+ for FOLKS seems like a decent threshold.

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What’s “folks” HECS?  A 8-12” snow is a once every 4-5 years event lol 

Remind what you said a few days ago about the accuracy of the GFS versus the ECM in Canada with the Northern jet in various regimes, PNA/EPO?  

 

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7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya it’s not the euro so there that. I’d be buying this right now if I could. I’m sure I’ll get two flakes instead though. 

You mean the Euro that gave us 5.5-6" in its last run before the flakes started to fly? Lol

snku_acc-imp.us_state_de_md (18).png

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Just now, mitchnick said:

You mean the Euro that gave us 5.5-6" in its last run before the flakes started to fly? Lol

snku_acc-imp.us_state_de_md (18).png

Well there’s a difference in a 50 mile band miss and a actually storm forming hahah. Not like euro has a coastal showing 10-20 east of us and we hope it shifts west. It’s a whole different look at h5

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