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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?


mappy
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Just now, stormtracker said:

It's definitely not as good/wet as 12z.   Low just seemed like it couldn't get going good.  Even up north in PHL-BOS it's less than 12z.  At any rate, none of us would kick this out of bed

Yeah definitely.  Like I said above a little earlier, not expecting a HECS per se (but would take one!).  But I have to like how things look to be shaping up in terms of chances for a pretty decent event next weekend, in a broad sense.

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4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

It's a folks for some. It's an interesting run, nice to see the phase still there. Actually runs the low inland over Dover at 120 (as a 988). I'm sure E PA and NY get demolished next frame.

It's a folks for me. 

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Just now, wxmeddler said:

It's a tad bit more progressive than 12z but it still is a major hit.

Interestingly it looked like it had the opportunity to be a cleaner phase at around h84-90, but the SLP just took a bit longer to go given the slightly more pos tilt. The trick is to have the euro and others move again in this direction. That really all comes down to the northern energy. 

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I’m in the 6-8 inch range and putting that ontop of what we have now. I’ll be good for the rest of the year. It’ll be interesting to see where the models progress tomorrow. 

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I actually love this run for one reason - it's sloppier and still get's the job done with the phase and popping the sfc low in a decent spot along the coast. It shows that there is *some* room for error here with a win still possible board-wide. 

Regardless, 0Z will be telling on whether the GFS is making up for it's horrendous h5 forecasting for this previous storm or if it's still out to lunch. 

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