Alfoman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 6:38 PM, brooklynwx99 said: here are the three major ensembles. none of them are really THAT different, they just have different degrees of phasing... and I couldn't tell you which is correct. just going to have to get things sorted over the next few days Expand I do like the fact that the GEPS shifted towards the GEFS by a larger degree, making Euro the standout between the big three. Gives some potential credence to the GFS progression over the last 24 hours. That northern stream shortwave digging and phasing at different points/strengths really is the only crazy difference I see between the solutions. Can't say the Euro baja energy bias is really at play here when they all generally agree on placement of the phasing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 EPS low pressures GEFS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 6:49 PM, Alfoman said: I do like the fact that the GEPS shifted towards the GEFS by a larger degree, making Euro the standout between the big three. Gives some potential credence to the GFS progression over the last 24 hours. That northern stream shortwave digging and phasing at different points/strengths really is the only crazy difference I see between the solutions. Can't say the Euro baja energy bias is really at play here when they all generally agree on placement of the phasing. Yep, great post, this event relies on the piece you circled. Have we been surprised before? Of course, but more times than not the GFS caves to other guidance. It feels annual that we get a fantasy event where the GFS does this. It’ll probably cave at 18z. I really, really hope I’m wrong . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 7:28 PM, Heisy said: Yep, great post, this event relies on the piece you circled. Have we been surprised before? Of course, but more times than not the GFS caves to other guidance. It feels annual that we get a fantasy event where the GFS does this. It’ll probably cave at 18z. I really, really hope I’m wrong . Expand Sad, but true. Even when it caves at 18z, it'll probably come back at 0z. The individual EPS members aren't all that far off with SLP positioning either, but without a cleaner phase of the northern piece, it has a much lesser mechanism to climb the coast and stays too pos tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Me after looking at the Euro: 1 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 7:28 PM, Heisy said: Yep, great post, this event relies on the piece you circled. Have we been surprised before? Of course, but more times than not the GFS caves to other guidance. It feels annual that we get a fantasy event where the GFS does this. It’ll probably cave at 18z. I really, really hope I’m wrong Expand Ukie was a little closer today at 12z than at 00z last night, and while the Euro wasn't that great I thought it was also somewhat closer. We know there's a load of potential and there's reason to have a little optimism. We just need to see the Europeans move towards the North American crew by 12z tomorrow and we can feel even better. That all said, I think we should be confident in our chances of seeing some accumulating snow this weekend! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 7:33 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Me after looking at the Euro: Expand legit lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Is there a chance this could be a one and done season and today’s snow is all there will be? 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 7:55 PM, JenkinsJinkies said: Is there a chance this could be a one and done season and today’s snow is all there will be? Expand Of course there's a chance. Just like every winter there's a chance we get nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 7:55 PM, JenkinsJinkies said: Is there a chance this could be a one and done season and today’s snow is all there will be? Expand Yep. Go enjoy it while you can! That would suck and is unlikely...but never say never around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 7:55 PM, JenkinsJinkies said: Is there a chance this could be a one and done season and today’s snow is all there will be? Expand Do your thoughts automatically go to the most depressing thing? My goodness lady...there's always a chance of anything in weather. But it's just better not to go there enjoy what we have. To my amateur eyes...and going off of what the knowledgeable posters have said, there look to be more opportunities this year (already tracking one this weekend...still way WAY up in the air, but ya know) 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 8:01 PM, Kmlwx said: Of course there's a chance. Just like every winter there's a chance we get nothing. Expand I love how we basically Ninja'd each other, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 8:03 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Do your thoughts automatically go to the most depressing thing? My goodness lady...there's always a chance of anything in weather. But it's just better not to go there enjoy what we have. To my amateur eyes...and going off of what the knowledgeable posters have said, there look to be more opportunities this year (already tracking one this weekend...still way WAY up in the air, but ya know) Expand I mean it is looking like we could go into the “warm wet cold dry” MO we’ve been in for the post 2016 winters. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 8:03 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Do your thoughts automatically go to the most depressing thing? My goodness lady...there's always a chance of anything in weather. But it's just better not to go there enjoy what we have. To my amateur eyes...and going off of what the knowledgeable posters have said, there look to be more opportunities this year (already tracking one this weekend...still way WAY up in the air, but ya know) Expand Enjoy this one and focus on the next. its a long winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Looking at the Friday night model runs of the 3 major globals the Canadian did best, with the GFS being to far north w the best snow and the Euro doing ok in northern VA but was to snowy down towards Richmond 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 7:55 PM, JenkinsJinkies said: Is there a chance this could be a one and done season and today’s snow is all there will be? Expand Wayne Dyer says no way, we got more coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Anyone else extrapolating the NAM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Euro Weeklies look decent imo through the end of the month and we warm up but don't torch into February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 7:55 PM, JenkinsJinkies said: Is there a chance this could be a one and done season and today’s snow is all there will be? Expand Well if this is one and done I stop at 4.68” for the year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 7:55 PM, JenkinsJinkies said: Is there a chance this could be a one and done season and today’s snow is all there will be? Expand Always a chance, but no big warm up coming over the next couple of weeks, so statistically should be at least another chance or two while it’s cold at least 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 8:25 PM, Paleocene said: Anyone else extrapolating the NAM Expand Yes...it seems like it's in between the Euro and GFS at the end of its run. I dunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 9:07 PM, stormtracker said: Yes...it seems like it's in between the Euro and GFS at the end of its run. I dunno Expand I will take a warning level event. I could maybe handle it not being a 12-18 inch storm like 12z GFS showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 9:07 PM, stormtracker said: Yes...it seems like it's in between the Euro and GFS at the end of its run. I dunno Expand 84 hour NAM so this is likely pointless but the southern energy was held back more compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Beginning 72 hrs out from start time, I don't think the Nam did that bad with today's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 9:14 PM, mitchnick said: Beginning 72 hrs out from start time, I don't think the Nam did that bad with today's event. Expand I beg to differ...it was too wet up this way. Some dang 9 inches...didn't even get half of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Icon promising at 102hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 9:11 PM, Paleocene said: 84 hour NAM so this is likely pointless but the southern energy was held back more compared to the GFS. Expand I can't tell whether that's actually what we'd like or not. I mean, it the NS moving faster than the SS the reason the Euro looks the way it does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 9:15 PM, Maestrobjwa said: I beg to differ...it was too wet up this way. Some dang 9 inches...didn't even get half of that. Expand None of the models were perfect and they never will be. The vaunted Euro had me at 6" on last night's 0z run and I got 3". So a forecast from 3 days vs 12 hrs with same degree of error is better. Plus, Nam did better in other areas, so you can't judge it from yby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 114hrs Icon looks real good 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Kicker on the Icon will be a thorn in future runs I bet. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500h_anom&rh=2025010618&fh=114&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts