Paleocene Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 So if we average the GFS and CMC, we get nuked. Right? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Areas out near @CAPEand the beaches are 6-8 and similar to last nights run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Love to see that improvement from the Canadian. GFS is capable of sniffing something out, but definitely need support, especially since this is only at d5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Slightly improved evolution compared to 0Z run - bit stronger as the troff goes negative strengthens off shore. GFS is definitely more juiced with a better progression at h5 but there is support here. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Love to see that improvement from the Canadian. GFS is capable of sniffing something out, but definitely need support, especially since this is only at d5. Kinda crazy how we've got two camps of light and absolutely nuked, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Kinda crazy how we've got two camps of light and absolutely nuclear, lol God I don't know whether to look forward or be terrified of the model play-by-plays this week. Not gonna be for the faint hearted 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The best long-range model tracking days are when it's snowing! #traintracks #snowtown 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, Alfoman said: I don't know whether to look forward or be terrified of the model play-by-plays this week. Not gonna be for the faint hearted Well...we're at d5. With large detail like this phasing being the key, you'd HOPE we'd know something by Wednesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Should be an interesting Euro run coming up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Scraff said: Should be an interesting Euro run coming up. There's a reason they call it Dr. No 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 We've got the Ukie to bring us down to Earth first... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 It's a crazy delicate setup. It's looks like the NAO block/ridge is partly what forces that energy to dive S and phase it on the gfs op. Ridge out in the Pac NW also ot as quick to break down/rollover whereas the models that aren't phasing have a weaker NAO look or degrading faster and also the Pac NW ridge essentially progresses and rolls over. The latter scenarios allow for more of a kicker to nudge development too late. Said it earlier, even tho the GFS op is wx porn, there isn't much wrt realistic pattern progression that would support such a scenario. Still feel this setup favors you guys in the Mid Atl for a light-moderate glancing hit while the storm get nudged ENE while developing. Dont see the KU DC-NYC with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 32 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Now if only we could get some consistency and something other than the GFS showing this... I think the GFS has been pretty consistence for this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 22 minutes ago, feloniousq said: For that statement to be true I need about 5 more inches of snow this afternoon. Yeah, I was a bit surprised this morning as well. Even LWX was saying 5-10 eventually - though in all fairness, if I pick up another 2.5" this afternoon, I'll probably be at 6-7". I suppose they hit lol. Areas to the south really did perform better - I don't know if it was the dry air (LWX got that wrong, onset was about 2-3hr later than expected for me) for areas north, or what.. either way, it seems to jive better with what the Euro was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Im not sure, other than phasing earlier and a less positively tilted trof, what mechanism is in place to bring this N. This setup is another that favors DelMarVa and points S. So some of you folks will find yourselves in a good spot again. Has some potential down that way. However, I do not see Chuck's warm forecast for Jan 11 and rain playing out. Most times I agree with him even tho I dislike non-cold and non-snow, but this time he's off yea I don't know what he is on about right now... his intricacies aside he is usually really good at pattern recognition but right now he seems keyed on one specific thing and not factoring in the whole pattern. Maybe because recently that one thing, specifically the N Pacific around Alaska has been driving the bus...but in this case I don't think so. That trough under it is very different and creates a different downstream reaction. The pattern all around it is very different, and a full high latitude ridge bring that ends up extending into the north pacific is not the same as the -PDO driven pattern we've been in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 GEFS certainly improved 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS certainly improved BTW, I will take that 979 East of Assateague ftw. I know @CAPE wants that 974 a bit East of there tho. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS certainly improved Without question. Many clustered West versus earlier far offshore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 UKIE attempting something CMC-like, not sure if it will turn the corner at all. Some snow for southern VA 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, frd said: Without question. Many clustered West versus earlier far offshore. It's the GFS's world and we're just livin in it 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, Alfoman said: It's the GFS's world and we're just livin in it Tucked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, Paleocene said: UKIE attempting something CMC-like, not sure if it will turn the corner at all. Energy gets buried in the Southwest. The northern stream energy races out in front and leaves the southern energy behind. We need that phase to happen for it to turn the corner. That said, this is a little better than 00z, so there's that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 GEFS for the period 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 30 minutes ago, Alfoman said: God I don't know whether to look forward or be terrified of the model play-by-plays this week. Not gonna be for the faint hearted Don't worry, I'll be consistently terrible. So there's that. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 If I were a betting man, I'd say the Euro will still be on some shit 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS for the period That's actually pretty damn good. My guess is that there are nukes and whiffs that cancel each other out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, mattie g said: That's actually pretty damn good. My guess is that there are nukes and whiffs that cancel each other out. Good trend by the GEFS the last few runs. Will have to see if Euro/EPS follows. It did better the current event than the GFS as far as pinpointing the max snowfall stripe south of us imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Good trend by the GEFS the last few runs. Will have to see if Euro/EPS follows. It did better the current event than the GFS as far as pinpointing the max snowfall stripe south of us imho I’m guessing GEFS is playing follow the leader so I’d like to see EPS play ball 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I like where we are for this one, always prefer misses to the south at this range than miller B bombs that only hit New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 So doing a run to run comparison 12z GFS vs 12z Euro, they look fairly similar at H5 thru 42...doesn't mean much yet tho...just callin shot rn 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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