January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Random Chaos]

Comparing the H5 vorticity to past runs, very similar to 18z yesterday.

[stormtracker]

FOLKS

[rjvanals]

Looks good although we get close to mix line in DC 

[Paleocene]

This looks pretty good/close.

[Alfoman]

[stormtracker]

Similar to the good run yesterday.   Fucking annihilates Jersey north

[rjvanals]

993 off VA Beach is nice 

[stormtracker]

PHL-NYC crushed.   Crazy

[Paleocene]

Stronger HP/good CAD (snowpack??!) and we will get smoked by this. But we play the track gamble game along 95.

[LordBaltimore]

Has anyone here looked at verification scores for the GFS vs 6 hour lagged Euro. Clearly the Euro is a better model but hopefully the 12z GFS has the advantage of additional obs. Please, it's critical for my happiness over the next 90ish or so minutes and I'm too sleep deprived to do it myself. We need this one

[rjvanals]

Looks like 10-15 inches South to North across the forum I’d sign up for that 

[stormtracker]

Our areas is like 10-15...more as you go from SW to NE...bmore does better than DC.   Philly is just beatdown

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Our areas is like 10-15...more as you go from SW to NE...bmore does better than DC.   Philly is just beatdown

Awesome, still plenty of time to have this get us better. Best part is that the GFS still has the storm

[stormtracker]

Now if only we could get some consistency and something other than the GFS showing this...

[rjvanals]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Awesome, still plenty of time to have this get us better. Best part is that the GFS still has the storm

Not sure we should be punting 10-15 inches since Philly would get 30 

[JenkinsJinkies]

14 minutes ago, EstorilM said:

Haha I remember the old days on the Accu forums (probably joined there 15+yr ago) where a storm like this (to be fair, I think everyone reacted the same way on these forums) would be a HOT thread. Heck probably even 300+ hours out. 

Saturday precip onset would only be like ~144hr out, that's easily mid-range IMO, definitely worth a thread.  I mean yeah, wait for the downstream stuff to clear out and things to settle, next piece of energy to come onshore, etc etc. but still.

Once within 72 hrs rugpull chances start to diminish if it hasn’t been significantly walked back yet. After the last 9 years you’d think more people would’ve learned that lesson.

[rjvanals]

Let’s see what the Canadian shows 

[deer]

964 low at 138hr my god

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

PHL-NYC crushed.   Crazy

Crazy delicate and complicated all-or-nothing setup. Won't take much to turn this threat back into a HECS (gfs op is still kind of alone) or a slider off HSE and glancing blow.

[NorthArlington101]

This covers our portion of the storm. 

 

[LeesburgWx]

4 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Not sure we should be punting 10-15 inches since Philly would get 30 

I only have 4 inches right now ... I need more. And I hate seeing Philly to BOS getting clobbered.

And 964 mb off NYC is just wow

[Mikeymac5306]

12Z 

 

[stormtracker]

CMC has a good look at H5 so far.  I don't get it faster like the other models, so we'll all see in real time

[DDweatherman]

How about another model show this other than the JV GFS? 

[deer]

Kinda crazy this is only like 5 days away and not really showing up on the other globals

 

Edit: may have spoke too soon?

[WxWatcher007]

Seriously, get the energy to fuse at the right time and it’s a nuclear detonation right off the coast. Everyone cashes in.

[NorthArlington101]

I got the CMC to 120 - looked well put together. Not sure if it’s a folks or will slide away, but definitely looks markedly improved. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

How about another model show this other than the JV GFS? 

From what I recall the GFS did well with today’s storm, in all fairness. 

[stormtracker]

Not sure how it looked at 0z.  But anyway I would think this run will end up good/improved

[LeesburgWx]

GFS 10:1 from the NYC Thread