JenkinsJinkies Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, EstorilM said: Kinda bizarre to hear the usually-conservative WTOP and other mets actually mentioning this storm so "far out" when nothing impressive has really been shown on the models yet. Even more bizarre that no one in here is posting maps, AND there isn't a thread for the potential event. Wait for the current system to end first. Plus it’s still too far out, wait until Wednesday at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 5 minutes ago, jayyy said: Did you scroll up? GFS showed 12+” last night lol And 43" on the run before that. If only lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The lead 500mb wave seems to be killing our chances on overnight runs. It helps keep the troff positively tilted too long, so the coastal bombs well offshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12Z ICON with a similar evolution to the previous two runs - sheared and much too positively tilted to round the bend in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 9 minutes ago, Amped said: The lead 500mb wave seems to be killing our chances on overnight runs. It helps keep the troff positively tilted too long, so the coastal bombs well offshore. The initial phase and transfer of energy on Friday (Hour 96-ish) is what determines our fate here - especially with that lead wave. Difference between the GFS bomb runs and 0z/6z is a stronger lead SW, allowing the baja energy to stay further back southwest for longer before completing the phase with the northern stream. This results in too positive of a tilt and would likely yield a low well off-shore by the time it reaches us. Yesterday's good run had that NS shortwave leading the phase process and ending up more neutral before it hits the EC. Such a delicate dance of energies involved here...this is going to be tough to bring home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, Alfoman said: The initial phase and transfer of energy on Friday (Hour 96-ish) is what determines our fate here - especially with that lead wave. Difference between the GFS bomb runs and 0z/6z is a stronger lead SW, allowing the baja energy to stay further back southwest for longer before completing the phase with the northern stream. This results in too positive of a tilt and would likely yield a low well off-shore by the time it reaches us. Yesterday's good run had that NS shortwave leading the phase process and ending up more neutral before it hits the EC. Such a delicate dance of energies involved here...this is going to be tough to bring home. 5H at 60 hours on the GFS looks very similar to 18z yesterday (in terms of that shortwave in the Southwest). Just sayin' without sayin' anything. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, mattie g said: 5H at 60 hours on the GFS looks very similar to 18z yesterday. Just sayin' without sayin' anything. Not terribly different, but baja s/w is held back a bit more. Worth staying tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, mattie g said: 5H at 60 hours on the GFS looks very similar to 18z yesterday. Just sayin' without sayin' anything. I am trying to be less bad at this but the western ridge looks better so far. I'm hopeful. But mostly have no idea what I'm doing other than many hours spent looking at 500mb plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Alright...watching the GFS...H5 is different...looks more put together than 6z...lets see if it produces 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, DDweatherman said: Not terribly different, but baja s/w is held back a bit more. Worth staying tuned. I'm wondering if we need that piece to slow down a bit...I mean the NS is moving faster, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Alright...watching the GFS...H5 is different...looks more put together than 6z...lets see if it produces Compare it to 18z yesterday and it's almost a carbon copy at 66. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 H5 IS different...looks like it's better so far, not trying to get ahead of myself. SFC reflection is better and more organized. The watch and wait is for the nrn stream to dive in. There is more southwestern vort that came out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 57 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Wait for the current system to end first. Plus it’s still too far out, wait until Wednesday at the earliest. Haha I remember the old days on the Accu forums (probably joined there 15+yr ago) where a storm like this (to be fair, I think everyone reacted the same way on these forums) would be a HOT thread. Heck probably even 300+ hours out. Saturday precip onset would only be like ~144hr out, that's easily mid-range IMO, definitely worth a thread. I mean yeah, wait for the downstream stuff to clear out and things to settle, next piece of energy to come onshore, etc etc. but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Yeah, it's markedly better so far. I need to see a few more panels. Not going to try to predict what it's gonna do, but it's going to be a better run in terms of a storm...not saying it's gonna be a hit 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, EstorilM said: Haha I remember the old days on the Accu forums (probably joined there 15+yr ago) where a storm like this (to be fair, I think everyone reacted the same way on these forums) would be a HOT thread. Heck probably even 300+ hours out. Saturday precip onset would only be like ~144hr out, that's easily mid-range IMO, definitely worth a thread. I mean yeah, wait for the downstream stuff to clear out and things to settle, next piece of energy to come onshore, etc etc. but still. This subforum has a nasty relationship with threads. NYC will start them 3 weeks in advance for a storm that misses them. Here 3 days out is about right lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I'm liking this latest gfs run. Troff is sharper and less positive tilt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, it's markedly better so far. I need to see a few more panels. Not going to try to predict what it's gonna do, but it's going to be a better run in terms of a storm...not saying it's gonna be a hit 100% - honestly pretty similar evolution so far compared to 18Z yesterday (not identical). Could confidently say it's a less messy solution so far though day h5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Amped said: I'm liking this latest gfs run. Troff is sharper and less positive tilt. Same, hr 90 is a nice look. Much less of a disorganized mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Alfoman said: 100% - honestly pretty similar evolution so far compared to 18Z yesterday (not identical). Could confidently say it's a less messy solution so far though day h5... I was talking 6z vs now. My bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Snowing around 9z Saturday...waiting to see if it climbs the coast or slides S and E out to sea 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Moderate snow at 15z Saturday...still waiting to see for sure what it's gonna do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 So...yeah...much better run. F word worthy...honestly. STILL not sure. DOn't wanna be premature FOLKS-elation. Terrible 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Comparing the H5 vorticity to past runs, very similar to 18z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 FOLKS 15 2 1 3 1 1 3 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Looks good although we get close to mix line in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 This looks pretty good/close. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Similar to the good run yesterday. Fucking annihilates Jersey north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 993 off VA Beach is nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 PHL-NYC crushed. Crazy 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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