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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?


mappy
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If temps are this warm during our super-awesome upper latitude cold pattern now, imagine how warm they will be when the pattern lifts out next week.. that's all I'm saying, analysis says it's probably a 34F storm for DC. High pressure in the Pacific also means that it could come in flatter or be closer to a nonstorm.. not having that +PNA piece is big for this one I feel, any which way it trends. 

DDp-Yk-URje-19.png

Don't kill the messenger.. I'm just offering my analysis is all.. I feel our chances for this next one to be a big snowstorm is probably at 10-15% for DC and Balt, with the H5 having to trend a certain way from here for it to be snow. 

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Will be interesting to see how this plays out. As others have said - it's not like it's a day 10 threat or anything. The players that make differences for this are "on the field" and in range inside of 72 hours. 

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3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If temps are this warm during our super-awesome upper latitude cold pattern now, imagine how warm they will be when the pattern lifts out next week.. that's all I'm saying, analysis says it's probably a 34F storm for DC. High pressure in the Pacific also means that it could come in flatter or be closer to a nonstorm.. not having that +PNA piece is big for this one I feel, any which way it trends. 

DDp-Yk-URje-19.png

Don't kill the messenger.. I'm just offering my analysis is all.. I feel our chances for this next one to be a big snowstorm is probably at 10-15% for DC and Balt, with the H5 having to trend a certain way for it to be snow. 

Do I nee to tap the sign?  Don't make me tap the sign Chuck.

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If temps are this warm during our super-awesome upper latitude cold pattern now, imagine how warm they will be when the pattern lifts out next week.. that's all I'm saying, analysis says it's probably a 34F storm for DC. High pressure in the Pacific also means that it could come in flatter or be closer to a nonstorm.. not having that +PNA piece is big for this one I feel, any which way it trends. 
DDp-Yk-URje-19.png
Don't kill the messenger.. I'm just offering my analysis is all.. I feel our chances for this next one to be a big snowstorm is probably at 10-15% for DC and Balt, with the H5 having to trend a certain way from here for it to be snow. 

Pretty sure you also said today’s storm wouldn’t pan out at first either. Let’s go day by day shall we
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I think all of the models are going to have various issues and solutions with the timing.  Probably all the way up to like Wed and--

Wait a minute, what the fuck is wrong with us?  We're about to get snow that could approach double digits and we're really looking at the next thing?   We're just a weird bunch of people.

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:


Pretty sure you also said today’s storm wouldn’t pan out at first either. Let’s go day by day shall we

Actually I was all over todays storm, from when models were showing a cutter and rain. I said "It's not going to cut with such a strong -NAO and favorable Pacific pattern". I also noted that the 50/50 low was perfect for this storm.. was one of the first to call it with Ji lol

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Euro keeps doing it's thing where it has the southwest vort dig SW for oil.   No-phase lookin ass

It’s the N branch that trended worse this run. Compare 96 to 18z 102 and look at the northern shortwave. That is the shortwave that drops in on GFS and late on the cmc run. Can be corrected next run hopefully


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Yeah the NS is pretty clearly different on the more favorable runs versus the bad runs. Not sweating it at all while we have glorious snow falling outside. We'll make sense of next weekend as we bask in our snow out the window tomorrow/Wed and beyond. 

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7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I think all of the models are going to have various issues and solutions with the timing.  Probably all the way up to like Wed and--

Wait a minute, what the fuck is wrong with us?  We're about to get snow that could approach double digits and we're really looking at the next thing?   We're just a weird bunch of people.

Bro I've been trying to steady my brain on this very thing--there's about to be snow outside of my dang window and I'm up here thinking about a dang model run for 6 days from now...stay in the moment, dang it!!!

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Bro I've been trying to steady my brain on this very thing--there's about to be snow outside of my dang window and I'm up here thinking about a dang model run for 6 days from now...stay in the moment, dang it!!!

Everyone got burned too many times over the past 9 years.

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