stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Stuck at hour 18. They know. They know wtf they are doing. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, stormtracker said: Stuck at hour 18. They know. They know wtf they are doing. Torturing people who are already tortured? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Maybe take the cartridge out and blow on it? *waits* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, diatae said: Maybe take the cartridge out and blow on it? *waits* No comment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, ravensrule said: No comment. Moth. Flame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalker03 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 You all have been on fire in this thread all day -- I've legit lol'ed so many times. Let's bring this next one home (I say as I watch the snow fall tonight). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I heard severe fail for next weekend Dr no is back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Ji said: I heard severe fail Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, Ji said: I heard severe fail for next weekend Dr no is back Dr no froze to death in our new climo. Snow town, BABY! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Huh? He's trolling. It's still stuck at 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 They probably had to load a new color scale for the 48”+ contour 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, stormtracker said: He's trolling. It's still stuck at 18 I just saw someone on Twitter using SV and they posted this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Ah..ok..yeah, that h5 map sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 and just like that, it's rolling. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Yeah...can confirm..that's a real map. Can't see precip maps..but does have a diffuse low that moves along some positively titled pos. Don't know if it got any precip back to us. Doesn't seem like it. Oh well....only 1800 more runs to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 If temps are this warm during our super-awesome upper latitude cold pattern now, imagine how warm they will be when the pattern lifts out next week.. that's all I'm saying, analysis says it's probably a 34F storm for DC. High pressure in the Pacific also means that it could come in flatter or be closer to a nonstorm.. not having that +PNA piece is big for this one I feel, any which way it trends. Don't kill the messenger.. I'm just offering my analysis is all.. I feel our chances for this next one to be a big snowstorm is probably at 10-15% for DC and Balt, with the H5 having to trend a certain way from here for it to be snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Will be interesting to see how this plays out. As others have said - it's not like it's a day 10 threat or anything. The players that make differences for this are "on the field" and in range inside of 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 In fact - that northern stream stuff that may make or break this are onshore around 60 hours out. Won't take long until we have an idea of the goal posts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: If temps are this warm during our super-awesome upper latitude cold pattern now, imagine how warm they will be when the pattern lifts out next week.. that's all I'm saying, analysis says it's probably a 34F storm for DC. High pressure in the Pacific also means that it could come in flatter or be closer to a nonstorm.. not having that +PNA piece is big for this one I feel, any which way it trends. Don't kill the messenger.. I'm just offering my analysis is all.. I feel our chances for this next one to be a big snowstorm is probably at 10-15% for DC and Balt, with the H5 having to trend a certain way for it to be snow. Do I nee to tap the sign? Don't make me tap the sign Chuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Euro keeps doing it's thing where it has the southwest vort dig SW for oil. No-phase lookin ass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 If temps are this warm during our super-awesome upper latitude cold pattern now, imagine how warm they will be when the pattern lifts out next week.. that's all I'm saying, analysis says it's probably a 34F storm for DC. High pressure in the Pacific also means that it could come in flatter or be closer to a nonstorm.. not having that +PNA piece is big for this one I feel, any which way it trends. Don't kill the messenger.. I'm just offering my analysis is all.. I feel our chances for this next one to be a big snowstorm is probably at 10-15% for DC and Balt, with the H5 having to trend a certain way from here for it to be snow. Pretty sure you also said today’s storm wouldn’t pan out at first either. Let’s go day by day shall we 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I think all of the models are going to have various issues and solutions with the timing. Probably all the way up to like Wed and-- Wait a minute, what the fuck is wrong with us? We're about to get snow that could approach double digits and we're really looking at the next thing? We're just a weird bunch of people. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Pretty sure you also said today’s storm wouldn’t pan out at first either. Let’s go day by day shall we Actually I was all over todays storm, from when models were showing a cutter and rain. I said "It's not going to cut with such a strong -NAO and favorable Pacific pattern". I also noted that the 50/50 low was perfect for this storm.. was one of the first to call it with Ji lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Euro keeps doing it's thing where it has the southwest vort dig SW for oil. No-phase lookin assIt’s the N branch that trended worse this run. Compare 96 to 18z 102 and look at the northern shortwave. That is the shortwave that drops in on GFS and late on the cmc run. Can be corrected next run hopefully . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Heisy said: It’s the N branch that trended worse this run. Compare 96 to 18z 102 and look at the northern shortwave. That is the shortwave that drops in on GFS and late on the cmc run. Can be corrected next run hopefully . Yeah, not worried at all at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Yeah the NS is pretty clearly different on the more favorable runs versus the bad runs. Not sweating it at all while we have glorious snow falling outside. We'll make sense of next weekend as we bask in our snow out the window tomorrow/Wed and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I think all of the models are going to have various issues and solutions with the timing. Probably all the way up to like Wed and-- Wait a minute, what the fuck is wrong with us? We're about to get snow that could approach double digits and we're really looking at the next thing? We're just a weird bunch of people. Bro I've been trying to steady my brain on this very thing--there's about to be snow outside of my dang window and I'm up here thinking about a dang model run for 6 days from now...stay in the moment, dang it!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Bro I've been trying to steady my brain on this very thing--there's about to be snow outside of my dang window and I'm up here thinking about a dang model run for 6 days from now...stay in the moment, dang it!!! Everyone got burned too many times over the past 9 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Everyone got burned too many times over the past 9 years. And now that we're getting snow we don't know how to act, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 EPS looks a bit better than the OP 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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