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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?


mappy
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  On 1/6/2025 at 4:56 AM, psuhoffman said:

I think everyone has acknowledged we’ve been going through a convergence of a shit pacific and high latitude cycle which also happened in the 50s and 70s.  The last 8 years would have been a snow minimum in any era. But we’ve used regression models and analysis to determine we’ve lost about 15-20% of our snow climo. And the results the last 8 years fall within that measure worse than comparable bad cycles. 
 

So I guess the issue is whether you think 15-20% is a big deal.  I do!  We’ve had several marginal events that would have made a total dreg under 5” winter into a more easy to stomach year that at least had a decent snow or two. No one is saying these would have been snowy years. 

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Yea, I'll defer to you on that....I know up here, we haven't lost any...yet, but perhaps that is beginning because we can't buy a flake these days.

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  On 1/6/2025 at 4:56 AM, psuhoffman said:

I think everyone has acknowledged we’ve been going through a convergence of a shit pacific and high latitude cycle which also happened in the 50s and 70s.  The last 8 years would have been a snow minimum in any era. But we’ve used regression models and analysis to determine we’ve lost about 15-20% of our snow climo. And the results the last 8 years fall within that measure worse than comparable bad cycles. 
 

So I guess the issue is whether you think 15-20% is a big deal.  I do!  We’ve had several marginal events that would have made a total dreg under 5” winter into a more easy to stomach year that at least had a decent snow or two. No one is saying these would have been snowy years. 

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The only place it’s consistently hot, is my pants. Stay far away if you want any snow. 

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  On 1/6/2025 at 4:57 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'll defer to you on that....I know up here, we haven't lost any...yet, but perhaps that is beginning because we can't buy a flake these days.

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We have more precipitable water now.. the snow decreasion is probably about 5-10% but more variance between a no-snow Winter and a 40-45"+ Winter. 

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  On 1/6/2025 at 4:57 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'll defer to you on that....I know up here, we haven't lost any...yet, but perhaps that is beginning because we can't buy a flake these days.

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Actually as of 2022 analysis showed eastern Mass had increase snow climo due to bigger coastal storms. But the further south you go the worse that equation gets. 

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  On 1/6/2025 at 5:01 AM, psuhoffman said:

Actually as of 2022 analysis showed eastern Mass had increase snow climo due to bigger coastal storms. But the further south you go the worse that equation gets. 

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If -NAO's continue to be wetter like this, wait until we do a -NAO and +PDO decadal phase.. it looks like they could possibly align together in the coming time. But yeah, much more sensitive further south

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  On 1/6/2025 at 5:02 AM, ravensrule said:

Don’t worry, when that kid wakes you up at night you will start drinking. 

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Well, this is #4 and will have 11 years next month! ; )

  On 1/6/2025 at 5:02 AM, stormtracker said:

Good times back in the day.  I'd love to do another one someday

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I'll be waiting...maybe I can present on how the mid atl has stolen SNE snow

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