WxUSAF Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 8:22 AM, Ji said: If we get 5 and Philly NYC get 20....I'd rather it not happen at all My euro ensembles snow chart blew up tonight lol for next weekend Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Expand On 1/5/2025 at 8:58 AM, psuhoffman said: The signal on the EPS is about as strong as you get for a possible snowstorm at that range...even better than it was for this current threat when it was at that range. If we didn't have a warning level event 24 hours away we would be blowing up this thread right now. Expand This has heartbreak written all over it for some of us in the subforum. But a long way to go, so hope I’m wrong. Good thing most of us will score tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 11:33 AM, WxUSAF said: This has heartbreak written all over it for some of us in the subforum. But a long way to go, so hope I’m wrong. Good thing most of us will score tomorrow. Expand On the other hand, non zero chance of back to back (to back? Getting greedy) warning level events. Pretty cool! But agreed on fail risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 11:35 AM, Paleocene said: On the other hand, non zero chance of back to back (to back? Getting greedy) warning level events. Pretty cool! But agreed on fail risk Expand I didn’t think we’d be done after tomorrow and I don’t think we’re done after Saturday. Potential for a major @Bob Chill heater this month. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 11:01 AM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Really? Was just going by the ensemble member low positions. Looks like a big cluster in spots that usually work for us. Expand Going to have to be a perfect track to prevent thermal issues. This windown always looked great for a powerful storm, now the question is locking in cold air and the exact track of the low. So many recent systems in past years have not worked due to a combination of coastal huggers, inland runners, poor phases, and other issues. @bluewave has spoken about this in detail the last few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Pretty impressive snow mean for this range. There are plenty of members with snow for the lowlands, including some SE of our region. 13 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 That 6z gfs map looks like the old classic north and west snowfall up and down the coast. Could be a fun and torturous week of tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6z GEFS 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 11:50 AM, frd said: Going to have to be a perfect track to prevent thermal issues. This windown always looked great for a powerful storm, now the question is locking in cold air and the exact track of the low. So many recent systems in past years have not worked due to a combination of coastal huggers, inland runners, poor phases, and other issues. @bluewave has spoken about this in detail the last few years. Expand Hard to get a more favorable h5 look than this leading up to an east coast storm. Always a risk of non snow p-types if a storm winds up or hugs the coast. The general look up top- a west based/weakening -NAO and an impressive 50-50 low tends to favor a track along/just off the coast. 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The EPS re-strengthens the -NAO just beyond mid month with a ridge retrograding from Scandinavia. Impressive NA look. There should be continued east coast winter storm chances. 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6z Euro looked completely different from 0z, as in no phase and a strung out H5, but Eps looked more like 0z thankfully. Lol Edit: No, 0z was better. Need more sleep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 11:37 AM, WxUSAF said: I didn’t think we’d be done after tomorrow and I don’t think we’re done after Saturday. Potential for a major @Bob Chill heater this month. Expand Starting to see the big bowl look on ens & now ops at times d10+. Big bowls are my personal faves. Long tracks with good trajectories. Won't be as cold as a big +pna but it will likely be active. All systems go if it sets up because even west tracks work with the big bowl. Highs to the north move laterally. Good for CAD. Last winter was blocky but ugly AF. Data shows a blocky winter either way. The year before that was crazy on the #s. This winter is trying pretty hard to go down as a blocky winter on the #s and maybe be snowy too. If the big weird multi decade AO/NAO cycle is real, which I think it is, this is probably the beginning of a 10 year stretch where blocking comes easy. Last one ended in 2011/12... 19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 12:23 PM, Bob Chill said: Starting to see the big bowl look on ens & now ops at times d10+. Big bowls are my personal faves. Long tracks with good trajectories. Won't be as cold as a big +pna but it will likely be active. All systems go if it sets up because even west tracks work with the big bowl. Highs to the north move laterally. Good for CAD. Last winter was blocky but ugly AF. Data shows a blocky winter either way. The year before that was crazy on the #s. This winter is trying pretty hard to go down as a blocky winter on the #s and maybe be snowy too. If the big weird multi decade AO/NAO cycle is real, which I think it is, this is probably the beginning of a 10 year stretch where blocking comes easy. Last one ended in 2011/12... Expand This was the winter we were expecting last year but a year delayed. Absolutely incredible that almost all Mets and forecasts proofed this winter wrong. I’m not saying we are headed for a blend of 1995-96 and 2009-2010 but just thinking about possibility is very exciting! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 11:05 AM, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EPS looks cold for Saturday. Expand Don't tell Chuck 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 If we can get that bad boy to tuck just a little bit closer..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 12:17 PM, CAPE said: The EPS re-strengthens the -NAO just beyond mid month with a ridge retrograding from Scandinavia. Impressive NA look. There should be continued east coast winter storm chances. Expand We get a retro Scandy and it could be game on for a couple weeks into the beginning of February. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:53 PM, mattie g said: We get a retro Scandy and it could be game on for a couple weeks into the beginning of February. Expand Retro scandy is the most classic way we keep our -NAO going. Very happy seeing this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Where's the Icon going? We'll see soon. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2025010512&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 3:40 PM, mitchnick said: Where's the Icon going? We'll see soon. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2025010512&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Expand Hard to get too excited with the H5 look. Kinda looks to positively tilted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 It fails, but close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Yeah...she slides S and E out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Ummm.... this is the best d11+ analog set as a whole that I've seen in years. Jan 2004 was inch away from epic. Majority of these point towards our heaters and not single storms. I've become the most bullish on future prospects than I have in longer than i can remember. Some these analogs were just epic cold/stormy periods in general. Focusing on raw snowfall only misses the bigger picture here imo. 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Ok, GFS has the southwest vort more involved/easter. let's see what this thing is gonna do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 3:56 PM, stormtracker said: Ok, GFS has the southwest vort more involved/easter. let's see what this thing is gonna do Expand Come on man, I need a folks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Looked good early on, but kinda got out of synch with the southern vort....But, it's still trying to get something going down in the gulf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 4:03 PM, TSSN+ said: Come on man, I need a folks! Expand I wanna say it so bad. But most folks just look at the SFC maps and see moisture gathering and moving and think that's it! Not me. I look at the H5 maps...that tells the story for. me. If that looks classic, then I'll yell it every time. But dropping that word requires a ton of confidence and I just don't have it...yet 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 4:05 PM, stormtracker said: I wanna say it so bad. But most folks just look at the SFC maps and see moisture gathering and moving and think that's it! Not me. I look at the H5 maps...that tells the story for. me. If that looks classic, then I'll yell it every time. But dropping that word requires a ton of confidence and I just don't have it...yet Expand Ya looks less good than 6Z but we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 It ain’t 6z but something is there 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Moisture is coming up from the S and W toward us...but nothing super heavy...it's trying to get going, but it just doesn't have that H5 look or support. Has a coastal low...we're just too far N and W 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 4:07 PM, TSSN+ said: Ya looks less good than 6Z but we will see Expand Still 6 days out gonna go thru alot of back and forth with models... just look at the storm for tonight and Monday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 4:09 PM, TSSN+ said: It ain’t 6z but something is there Expand It's a 2-4 inch deal up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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