January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[jayyy]

Pacific pattern has really evolved in the last few days to now a -PNA/+WPO look for the storm. The pacific pattern takes precedence as effect over the Atlantic, as the last 10+ years have shown clearly.  Beyond that, it evolves to an Aleutian ridge. That's a -PNA pattern, with now a trough digging into the NW in the long range. Will be interesting to see if this favorable Pacific only lasts a few more days like what is being modeled. Models were super cold for the time period a short time ago, it was a question of if the 11th storm would merge with the Polar Vortex lol

The 500 plot above is not a -PNA


.

[TSSN+]

Looming at 144

 

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Looming at 144

 

It looks good...but that trof is more positively titled vs 12z.   Might not mean much tho...could just be slower

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It looks good...but that trof is more positively titled vs 12z.   Might not mean much tho...could just be slower

Ya just put the threat on the map and go from there. We see from the current storm how much we can jump around. Just nice to see something there. Not a ridge, not bone dry. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

41 minutes ago, jayyy said:

The 500 plot above is not a -PNA

In the Pacific you have a ridge under a trough. Hard to get trough to dig too far in the SE with that pattern. It seems the cold air is becoming "stale" at that point, and usually in future runs the whole pattern catches up to what's happening in now time. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

54 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this has pretty much every box checked off synoptically: phasing trough over the OH Valley, decaying west based -NAO, huge, slow moving 50/50, and antecedent cold air

just a matter of how it all comes together

What a weird western ridge orientation.

[frd]

Tomer end of the week 

 

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1875693350155592045

 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

My call is it's a rainstorm for Jan 11th. 

That would be ironic as ensembles ALL had that date as the coldest in YEARS less than a week ago. What a turn of events that would be. Then you should be 5-posted for even putting such a comment out there in the universe. I would only blame you Chuck 

[TSSN+]

Looks juicy 

 

[cbmclean]

Seems like it's GEFS vs GEPS/EPS in terms of showing troughing in the SW in the LR.  I would also say the 18Z showed slight improvement in this regard.  The GEFS has been less enthusiastic about Pacific blocking ever since November; maybe this is another occasion when it corrects to the other guidance?

[winter_warlock]

 Sterling mentions the next weekends storm in their disco...

 

This is thanks to a brief ridge that moves
overhead ahead of a very deep trough building across the central
CONUS. This trough will develop an area of low pressure across the
deep south, which may move towards the region Friday into Saturday
and bring another impactful weather event

[Jebman]

Nice. You guys are gonnabe enjoying a nice stretch of deep winter. Plenty of snow and deep cold to go with it!

Congrats, Sub!

It's been a LOOOOOOOOOOONG time coming.

[stormtracker]

GFS dug that S/W way down there...starting to come out a bit now...

[stormtracker]

Looks like it's gonna miss the connection with the southwest S/W, but may not need it?

[stormtracker]

Light snow approaching the area from the SW around 7pm Friday...

[stormtracker]

Flow just looks too flat to turn the corner at the moment.  Some light snow around 1am Sat

[stormtracker]

Yeah, this run is gonna miss...gets some light stuff up to us tho.  H5 presentation wasn't nearly as good as 18z..totally missed the s/w connection in the south west.  Still like where we are and this signal

[high risk]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, this run is gonna miss...gets some light stuff up to us tho.  H5 presentation wasn't nearly as good as 18z..totally missed the s/w connection in the south west.  Still like where we are and this signal

    Yeah, by hour 96, the 00Z cycle handled the shortwave over Montana quite differently than the previous 2 cycles.

   

[NorthArlington101]

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, this run is gonna miss...gets some light stuff up to us tho.  H5 presentation wasn't nearly as good as 18z..totally missed the s/w connection in the south west.  Still like where we are and this signal

Still 1-2” of snow-on-snow. Good high end WAA-WSW criteria snow for the tidewater/NC/SC. 

[Ji]

Gefs actually look better than 18z

[Ji]

blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/b9799005-6578-4ad8-9625-267d929f4deb

[stormtracker]

Said I was going to bed, but wanted to check the Euro for the next threat.   It's kicking out the s.w unlike the GFS 

[stormtracker]

Interesting H5 map at 117 on the Euro... much better look that GFS at the same time.  Let's see if it can produce

[stormtracker]

Damn man, if that nrn s/w can dig enough to capture the southern s/w, I'd FOLKS the shit out of this thing right now

[stormtracker]

Oh dear...

[stormtracker]

Moisture bomb gathering off the LA coast in the Gulf

[peribonca]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Moisture bomb gathering off the LA coast in the Gulf

We're listening

[stormtracker]

It's close to something big...oh so close

[stormtracker]

Moderate snow over the area 1pm Saturday...may get going good too late for our latitude tho

EDIT:  Yeah, just a bit too late...but NYC...gets pummeled

[Deck Pic]

25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ok..imma run off to bed before the accumulation maps come out in case I'm wrong and be ran out of town

 

Just now, stormtracker said:

Moderate snow over the area 1pm Saturday...may get going good too late for our latitude tho

EDIT:  Yeah, just a bit too late...but NYC...gets pummeled