January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[dseagull]

Time to jump off this wonky old wooden roller coaster and onto that sweet looking ride.   Lock it up!

[mappy]

1 minute ago, frd said:

Oh my . Leave early?? Drink a lot of coffee. 

5hr drive, could leave by 5am and beat the worst of it lol 

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

LOL..loli strip of 30 in SE Jersey

It dropped 50” in South Jersey a few weeks ago.

[mattie g]

5 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Another Miller B ......

Not the 10th/11th thing. It’s a classic jumper that runs from the Gulf into the Ohio Valley and then transfers to the coast.

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Not the 10th/11th thing. It’s a classic jumper that runs from the Gulf into the Ohio Valley and then transfers to the coast.

Yessir. Nearly all coastals are hybrids in the sense that slp jumps the coast/redevelops even with the majority of Miller As.  Jan 2000 was a straight up coastal tracker but those are super rare. Otherwise, the handoff is present nearly all the time. 

In my simple mind, any storm that is juicy west of the MS River and tracks entirely south of us is a Miller A. No big lull or weird weaken b4 strengthen again stuff. Just a trackable blob of precip that consistently leaves bigger totals in its wake as it marches NE. 

Miller Bs comes in all shapes and sizes. Jan 2016 was a Miller B if you count where it comes from. It was a NS shortwave that hit the pac NW. Just took an insanely good track and never wobbled in strength much. I personally look at Jan 2016 more as a Miller A but it's debatable 

I no longer like the Miller A/B debate. We know what works and what doesn't and the lines between them are way too muddy to have 2 simple buckets 

[das]

34 minutes ago, mappy said:

lol except I’m in Syracuse mid week and to drive home Saturday 

I am driving down that Sunday. Maybe I should put a plow on the front of the car. And, apparently, I have to drive 500 miles south to get any snow in this pattern. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Me either. And I am banging my head against the wall.

Same! Got me here like...

[WxUSAF]

Gfs gonna do something 

[stormtracker]

Um

[GATECH]

Oh F word?!

[stormtracker]

Sweating thermals, but lot going on down to the south. Got some sleet or something at 165.  looks like a broad low trying to form centered over VA Beach

[LordBaltimore]

Time for a real storm. None of this mid stuff

[stormtracker]

It's a bit too diffuse from what I can tell so far.  Temps get colder, but barely.  

[stormtracker]

Step back for us, but interior Jersey gets it good.  NYC on the line (temp wise)

[stormtracker]

They get obliterated on the next panel....NYC. 

Just gets going too late for us (DC).  

[stormtracker]

Scratch.  That.  A little better than I thought.  PHL at 10-15..we're at 4-8...bmore 8-10 NYC: 20.

[stormtracker]

Honestly tho yall...this is a pretty damn good spot to be in at this point.  Seriously

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Watch out for the +WPO trend on recent ensemble modeling for the 11th storm.. that pattern trends warmer as we get closer, if it holds. 

[NorthArlington101]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Scratch.  That.  A little better than I thought.  PHL at 10-15..we're at 4-8...bmore 8-10 NYC: 20.

[stormtracker]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Better.  Like I've been screaming from the rooftops..SV maps absolutely suck.   They probably don't figure in sleet like WB...which can also be wonky

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Honestly tho yall...this is a pretty damn good spot to be in at this point.  Seriously

Right.  It's about all we can expect right now at this range.  The threat in general has shown up for a little while, and I recall you mentioning (some pages back) that the "players were on the field but a lot going on" (or words to that effect).  Maybe it's trying to hone in on a more discrete threat now.

[mattie g]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Honestly tho yall...this is a pretty damn good spot to be in at this point.  Seriously

Kill that primary 100 miles south and we get blasted.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, mattie g said:

Kill that primary 100 miles south and we get blasted.

And even in this run some of us get a foot. So if it looks like that with a messy/late transfer...

[WxUSAF]

Looks like a sloppy evolution with strong northern and southern stream shortwaves, but sooo much energy flying around. Big upside potential clearly there.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

My call is it's a rainstorm for Jan 11th. 

[frd]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

My call is it's a rainstorm for Jan 11th. 

That would be a typical failure on several fronts.  

Seems we are going to avoid extreme cold, as the PV getting deflected.  

https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1875357476503351668

 

[brooklynwx99]

this has pretty much every box checked off synoptically: phasing trough over the OH Valley, decaying west based -NAO, huge, slow moving 50/50, and antecedent cold air

just a matter of how it all comes together

[WxUSAF]

There’s no real high pressure to the north though thanks to that northern stream shortwave. Kinda relying on the confluence and antecedent airmass. So bigger chance for mixing and rain if the coastal doesn’t take over to our south.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

That would be a typical failure on several fronts.  

Seems we are going to avoid extreme cold, as the PV getting deflected.  

https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1875357476503351668

Pacific pattern has really evolved in the last few days to now a -PNA/+WPO look for the storm. The pacific pattern takes precedence as effect over the Atlantic, as the last 10+ years have shown clearly.  Beyond that, it evolves to an Aleutian ridge. That's a -PNA pattern, with now a trough digging into the NW in the long range. Will be interesting to see if this favorable Pacific only lasts a few more days like what is being modeled. Models were super cold for the time period a short time ago, it was a question of if the 11th storm would merge with the Polar Vortex lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

There’s no real high pressure to the north though thanks to that northern stream shortwave. Kinda relying on the confluence and antecedent airmass. So bigger chance for mixing and rain if the coastal doesn’t take over to our south.

Kind of hoping that the cold air from before stays in place for the storm.. -NAO block is gone now, neutral, with some lingering ridging over Canada. I've seen this play before, it evolves toward the upper latitude pattern in the coming days. The +WPO Canadian ridge is going to extend south and kind of cutoff the cold air, unless it evolves away from +WPO in the coming days..