January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

i'd take it (remotely - still would be island hopping)

Make lemonade out of lemons.  You'll be in tropical paradise. 

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I'll take this look any day!

That's A great spot for 8 to 9 days out!!

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Make lemonade out of lemons.  You'll be in tropical paradise. 

Oh I’m dropping pictures of margaritas on a white sand beach in the Jan 6 obs thread til I get banned 

if I somehow don’t get banned I’ll post mojitos in the Jan 11 obs thread 

[mitchnick]

Hey, it's a weekend. What are we doing? Of course it's going to snow bigly!

[WEATHER53]

Low moving close to Atlanta are our best snow lows 

it looks like we are going to do well for a B in a few days and if then we get a real A, Watch Out 

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

It's impressive we get the surface look the GFS shows with that h5 broadness. I'd have to think if we could get that sharper with the N/S wave phasing in, it would have to go boom. 

Gfs has been moving more southern stream energy out each run the last 24-36 hours. Euro still mostly burying it. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Hey remember last year when we got a Monday thing then a Saturday thing? 

[DDweatherman]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Hey, it's a weekend. What are we doing? Of course it's going to snow bigly!

The weekend rule is one of our finest. That and the ole EE

[WVclimo]

Don’t know that I’ve ever seen a continuous ribbon of vorticity from Hudson Bay to Puerto Vallarta lol

[Fozz]

17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Oh I’m dropping pictures of margaritas on a white sand beach in the Jan 6 obs thread til I get banned 

if I somehow don’t get banned I’ll post mojitos in the Jan 11 obs thread 

I’ll also be out of town both weekends. Sucks for me that the timing coincides with the best stretch of winter in almost a decade.

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Don’t know that I’ve ever seen a continuous ribbon of vorticity from Hudson Bay to Puerto Vallarta lol

Look above. Strong jet streak increases vorticity below.

[mitchnick]

Day 15 and look what the Gfs still has over Greenland. Lol

Not saying it's right, but that feature just doesn't want to leave.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500h_anom&rh=2025010218&fh=366&r=nh&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Day 15 and look what the Gfs still has over Greenland. Lol

Not saying it's right, but that feature just doesn't want to leave.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500h_anom&rh=2025010218&fh=366&r=nh&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Gorgeous. It looks like a brief relax in the block, with another episode developing, originating more from Scandinavia this time. Ens means have been hinting at this.

NA blocks that evolve from Scandi ridging excite me.. 2009-10.

[Terpeast]

Just means our window of chances is getting extended 

[TSSN+]

2 weeks of below freezing temps and counting? What’s the record? 
 

 

[high risk]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

This is a good question for @dtk or @high risk

 

3 hours ago, Paleocene said:

This is slightly off topic and a question for red taggers.  But what are the statistical error ranges on projected snowfall or qpf totals? Are there any comprehensible stats that describe that somewhere? I'm wondering when I hear people mention things like "oh I lost .2 qpf on the latest run." What's the error range on .75 expected qpf at 120 hours out? Probability bounds? Confidence intervals?

 

         The best place for verification is the EMC Verification site:   https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification       You can find metrics for many different parameters for short-range, medium-range, hi-res, globals.... whatever floats 'yer boat.

         I wouldn't go chasing QPF stats, as there is no current attempt to parse events by type (i.e. winter storm precip vs. convective).      If you looked at recent Eastern U.S. stats, they would be based off of winter storms mixed in with heavy thunderstorm events like we had the other evening.  And any QPF error can be do with synoptic errors or errors in the microphysical and convective scheme.    There are, however, specific stats for snowfall, if you're interested:    https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/prod/atmos/grid2grid/snowfall      but in the medium range, they only compare the GFS with the ECMWF and an older version of the GFS.    If we look at past 30 days over the Eastern U.S. 

  this is the frequency bias for 2".    Forecast hour is the x-axis, and a score of 1 means that a model predicts 2" as often as it occurs.   Values lower than 1 indicate an underproduction by the model.    The number of events is likely quite small, so I wouldn't read too much into scores like these, but it's worth poking around on that site.

 

 

 

[Eaglesrck63]

I know it's far out there but does 18z have any signal for a coastal storm around the 11th like the gfs? A coastal storm in that time-frame keeps popping up here and there. 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Eaglesrck63 said:

I know it's far out there but does 18z have any signal for a coastal storm around the 11th like the gfs? A coastal storm in that time-frame keeps popping up here and there. 

If you're talking about the 18z Euro, it only goes out to 144 hrs (about 6 days or so).

[peribonca]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey remember last year when we got a Monday thing then a Saturday thing? 

That was our one week of winter... Nice but too short

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

2-4 for metro area...more to the south northern neck. Norfolk wins

Gimme.

[Heisy]

18z euro Ai is very similar to 18z GFS, enough of the southern stream escapes east and allows for enough phasing, MECS for mid Atlantic. End of the OP euro looked similar as well. Woof woof?






.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

18z euro Ai is very similar to 18z GFS, enough of the southern stream escapes east and allows for enough phasing, MECS for mid Atlantic. End of the OP euro looked similar as well. Woof woof?






.

Right where we want it. It’ll shift north in a few days like the 1/6 system did

[Heisy]

Right where we want it. It’ll shift north in a few days like the 1/6 system did

Yea classic 50/50, only issue is the kicker coming behind speeding it up, get more phasing early on and sky is the limit here


.

[weathercoins]

3 hours ago, Fozz said:

I’ll also be out of town both weekends. Sucks for me that the timing coincides with the best stretch of winter in almost a decade.

Heading to Florida on the 9th.  Glad I’m getting one of these in, but too reminiscent of a multi year period in the 2000s where I was always away the best week of winter.  

[bncho]

GFS looks to cook something up again for the 12th.

[mitchnick]

Gfs is pulling that cut off out.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025010300&fh=177&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[stormtracker]

imma just wait.   Not sure we gonna get it any better this run...but just really can;t tell so far

[NorthArlington101]

I’m not saying we shouldn’t be looking but I love how we toss the GFS at 80 hours yet are glued to it for a storm at 200hrs 

[mitchnick]

It's starting the move toward us further west. That's good

[stormtracker]

Yeah, It's gonna be a step back