TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 11:34 AM, WxUSAF said: So 0z euro went back to about where it was at 12z? I think a slight north shift close to game time is quite possible, but not one that’s going to make this a congrats NYC/SNE event. More like congrats @psuhoffman @mappy and @mitchnick. Which we all knew was probably coming anyway. And I think some of the banding structure, as @MillvilleWx alluded to, might give the impression of a north shift when in reality it’s just the in-storm dynamics creating a non uniform snow swath. Anyway…nice consensus. Going to be thread time after 12z runs. Expand Ya idk why anyone thought it was going to NY. Always weenie panic over one run. I am glad it shifted south a little, gives me more room for the trend back north again at the end. I would be in that congrats crowd you just mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 11:34 AM, WxUSAF said: So 0z euro went back to about where it was at 12z? I think a slight north shift close to game time is quite possible, but not one that’s going to make this a congrats NYC/SNE event. More like congrats @psuhoffman @mappy and @mitchnick. Which we all knew was probably coming anyway. And I think some of the banding structure, as @MillvilleWx alluded to, might give the impression of a north shift when in reality it’s just the in-storm dynamics creating a non uniform snow swath. Anyway…nice consensus. Going to be thread time after 12z runs. Expand I dunno. 06z Euro is south and jackpots central MD/DC/NOVA. Less than a half inch precip up my way. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 11:37 AM, TSSN+ said: Ya idk why anyone thought it was going to NY. Always weenie panic over one run. I am glad it shifted south a little, gives me more room for the trend back north again at the end. I would be in that congrats crowd you just mentioned. Expand The 70 & n to M/D corridor is a good place to be right now. PSU probably jackpots if you didn't move to Hanover, but given your snow curse, we'll have to look for a new jackpot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 11:34 AM, WxUSAF said: So 0z euro went back to about where it was at 12z? I think a slight north shift close to game time is quite possible, but not one that’s going to make this a congrats NYC/SNE event. More like congrats @psuhoffman @mappy and @mitchnick. Which we all knew was probably coming anyway. And I think some of the banding structure, as @MillvilleWx alluded to, might give the impression of a north shift when in reality it’s just the in-storm dynamics creating a non uniform snow swath. Anyway…nice consensus. Going to be thread time after 12z runs. Expand Well, I did as you instructed. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 11:42 AM, stormtracker said: Well, I did as you instructed. Expand AFTER 12z runs, Randy. If this goes south…….. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 11:44 AM, snowfan said: AFTER 12z runs, Randy. If this goes south…….. Expand you gotta read the first post in the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 11:44 AM, snowfan said: AFTER 12z runs, Randy. If this goes south…….. Expand The thread after the thread rule proved successful last year on at least 2 occasions. Happy to report I was one of the savior thread starters on one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Going to be a good weekend in the mountains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 @stormtrackerthat s/w is coming out--didnt get stuck in arizona Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 4:23 PM, Ji said: @stormtrackerthat s/w is coming out--didnt get stuck in arizona Expand Yeah, but not amounting to much so far Look good at first. There's a lot going on at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 4:23 PM, Ji said: @stormtrackerthat s/w is coming out--didnt get stuck in arizona Expand lol..look at the H5 maps for hour 234 for a prime example. So much going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 4:33 PM, stormtracker said: lol..look at the H5 maps for hour 234 for a prime example. So much going on. Expand we might have to move our new window to Jan 14-15. I think Jan 10-11 is probably toast but we probably wont care that much with a foot on the ground lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 4:33 PM, stormtracker said: lol..look at the H5 maps for hour 234 for a prime example. So much going on. Expand something has to happen. THere is unlimited vorts. With the NAO blocking there should be a backup and allow for consolidation at some point. We are going to have to be patient i guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Anyone seen any windspeed modeling progs for the storm. Curious if there will be whiteout conditions and blowing and drifting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 4:42 PM, Ji said: something has to happen. THere is unlimited vorts. With the NAO blocking there should be a backup and allow for consolidation at some point. We are going to have to be patient i guess Expand GFS is working on our HECS for the 16th it just can’t quite put it together. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 5:13 PM, NorthArlington101 said: GFS is working on our HECS for the 16th it just can’t quite put it together. Expand Looks like back to back MECS then HECS lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 16 day totals from 12Z GFS 6 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Gosh that GFS run was on fire at the end. Gonna be fun times after a break following Monday’s MECS. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 5:25 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Gosh that GFS run was on fire at the end. Gonna be fun times after a break following Monday’s MECS. Expand Yea, that looked like a Miller A at the end. All we do now is snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 5:29 PM, 87storms said: Yea, that looked like a Miller A at the end. All we do now is snow. Expand Hey hey don't spike the football yet *shhhhhhh* and let it unfold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Euro is very different around day 8, the energy is not buried way west of baja. Not sure if it'll matter but its a significant change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 4:33 PM, stormtracker said: lol..look at the H5 maps for hour 234 for a prime example. So much going on. Expand Re: 234...Slow the southern vort down a little bit and the northern one could drop in behind it. That pulls things a bit north and it all phases with that lobe dropping in from the northeast. Simple, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 My trip to Maine on 1/14-15 has all the makings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 6:04 PM, mattie g said: Re: 234...Slow the southern vort down a little bit and the northern one could drop in behind it. That pulls things a bit north and it all phases with that lobe dropping in from the northeast. Simple, right? Expand Of course. Most of our storms are just simple and straightforward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 7:27 PM, stormtracker said: Of course. Most of our storms are just simple and straightforward. Expand Right? I'm calling it now...mid-month triple phaser. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 7:29 PM, mattie g said: Right? I'm calling it now...mid-month triple phaser.We’re due for a blizzard between 1/6 and 1/22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Crazy map y'all having more snow than us up hereSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 This is slightly off topic and a question for red taggers. But what are the statistical error ranges on projected snowfall or qpf totals? Are there any comprehensible stats that describe that somewhere? I'm wondering when I hear people mention things like "oh I lost .2 qpf on the latest run." What's the error range on .75 expected qpf at 120 hours out? Probability bounds? Confidence intervals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 8:03 PM, Paleocene said: This is slightly off topic and a question for red taggers. But what are the statistical error ranges on projected snowfall or qpf totals? Are there any comprehensible stats that describe that somewhere? I'm wondering when I hear people mention things like "oh I lost .2 qpf on the latest run." What's the error range on .75 expected qpf at 120 hours out? Probability bounds? Confidence intervals? Expand This is a good question for @dtk or @high risk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 sw s/w coming out again. Let's see what this thang does 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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