bncho Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 5:46 AM, pazzo83 said: seems like the big players are coming into rough agreement at this point? Expand Yup. The Euro and GFS are strikingly similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 5:43 AM, HighStakes said: Impressive cold following the storm all next week. Expand Did not see DC getting above freezing from Sunday until the end of the run...that's an impressive 10 days of winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 One of the things I’ve been alluding to on these runs and outputs are dual maxima showing up in the precip/snowfall panels. You’re starting to see that come to fruition in the more hi-res guidance and even to a degree in the Ukmet with a northern max and “southern” max within the sub. The 7H maxima aligns over the north with solid convergence pattern towards the M/D (I-70 to MD line) and the 85H FGEN situated between I-70 to I-66. If this kind of synoptic scale evolution holds, this would lead to pretty good banding structures with rates capable of 1-1.5”/hr in the strongest zones of lift. That is a beefy 850-700mb moisture advection regime being advertised with the disturbance out west taking on a more neutral to slightly negative tilt at 5H. This was a good set of runs for snow lovers north of Fredericksburg. Feel for those in Southwestern VA and Southern VA. This is a nasty CAD wedge progged. Ice storm hell signature for I-81 corridor south of I-66. 12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 5:43 AM, HighStakes said: Impressive cold following the storm all next week. Expand There will be some incredible staying power for the snow and ice that falls with this one. The Arctic will be paying a visit regardless of final outcome. I hope people are ready for this one. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 5:45 AM, Ji said: Can you post surface temps for Monday morning? Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 288 hour the sw finally comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 6:01 AM, mitchnick said: Thanks. It’s warmer than before but also more precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 6:06 AM, Ji said: Expand Is this a signal for something big Jan 15-17ish? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 6:10 AM, Fozz said: Is this a signal for something big Jan 15-17ish?The desert sw will come out eventually lol. Euro does have a Jan 14 snow for us but that’s an awfully long time to wait for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Couldn't sleep and was resisting reaching for my phone. Glad I finally caved and looked. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 6:22 AM, IronTy said: Couldn't sleep and was resisting reaching for my phone. Glad I finally caved and looked. Expand Ha me too. Looks like the night crew did just fine. Now I am too juiced up to go back to sleep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 We did well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The advertised look for mid month looks prime for a major east coast snowstorm. The 0z GEFS 13-16th window is active. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just woke up. Was worried to look at the euro but man, it looks good and the bleeding north appears to have stopped. Let’s get DC to hold jackpot by 12z today and I think we will be good to go. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Latest Natty blend 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Today is my 32nd wedding anniversary and reading the overnight pbp's is getting me off to a good start. I've been giving him updates on the snow the past couple of days, but he has to go over to Ji's FB page and tell's me it's probably going to snow. LOL. 32 years... Thank you all for the brilliant analysis of the overnight runs. I'm 5 hours ahead here in London at the moment so I have had to catch up this morning. The 0z run of the Euro seems like a good storm for the majority of this forum. Even those on the coast will get in on the action. I'm feeling pretty confident after so many consistent runs of the Euro. We fly back on Saturday, so I look forward to an extra long winter break next week. 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Nice 6Z ICON run... Image 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Gfs is north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 GFS moved a smidge north, but snowfall amounts are pretty close to 0z. 6-10 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 10:02 AM, stormtracker said: GFS moved a smidge north, but snowfall amounts are pretty close to 0z. 6-10 Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I kinda feel like whoever gets this band tomorrow will be where the max is for Sunday/monday. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 GFS still looks good. Mostly noise back and forth right now with the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 10:07 AM, TSSN+ said: Expand that look screams long duration west to east with the usual drying through the mountains. would rather that then hoping coastal bands reach us or coming up from the south that hit the wall of confluence north of EZF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 10:31 AM, LeesburgWx said: GFS still looks good. Mostly noise back and forth right now with the models Expand eh...mostly agree but not sure we are in the noise zone yet. bad memories I suppose but I feel like Saturday is noise zone territory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Nice to see the euro take a step back south, and the gfs is mostly a hold if not a tick north. Let’s see if they tighten up the goalposts. If the storm start time is sunday night, it’s 3.5 days away now. That’s usually the time when models start flushing out any major disagreements with each other, barring a last minute trend. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 10:11 AM, TSSN+ said: I kinda feel like whoever gets this band tomorrow will be where the max is for Sunday/monday. Expand That may well happen, but it’d be nothing more than coincidence. Two completely different events. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 1/2/2025 at 11:26 AM, snowfan said: That may well happen, but it’d be nothing more than coincidence. Two completely different events. Expand Eh boundaries and stuff set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6z euro a bit south of 0z. Gfs is now north of euro haha typical. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 So 0z euro went back to about where it was at 12z? I think a slight north shift close to game time is quite possible, but not one that’s going to make this a congrats NYC/SNE event. More like congrats @psuhoffman @mappy and @mitchnick. Which we all knew was probably coming anyway. And I think some of the banding structure, as @MillvilleWx alluded to, might give the impression of a north shift when in reality it’s just the in-storm dynamics creating a non uniform snow swath. Anyway…nice consensus. Going to be thread time after 12z runs. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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