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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

mappy

By mappy,
in Mid Atlantic

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adelphi_sky

adelphi_sky

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, jonjon said:

A few inches so far and snowing better as of lately.  I think we'll end up around 6-8" by tomorrow morning, which is around what was forecasted.

I am at the Wisp resort. I just decided on a whim to take a look as I have never been to Wisp. Had no idea there would be a lot of snow. The guy at the dest said 8 inches. I hope they clear roads good up here. I have an eye appointment in College Park tomorrow afternoon. :unsure:

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MillvilleWx
MillvilleWx

He deserves the reddest of tags. Pete is an amazing meteorolgist and one of the primary Winter Desk forecasters at WPC. I went to school with Pete. Great guys and very knowledgeable. This is the type

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

Good morning Quick summary of what I see The first threat Sunday is actually simple, but the cause for divergence across guidance is that its delicate.  There is a vigorous SW over western A

stormtracker
stormtracker

FOLKS....

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cbmclean

cbmclean

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I believe his home base was North Carolina so his starting reference is there. Thought he was in New Mexico last year not sure now

He's from NC originally (very close to where I am from actually) but not sure where he he is physically located now.  His demeanor can be offputtingly smug but he is ignored at peril.  He seems to know his stuff as annoying as it can be sometimes.  On the flipside he was one of the first people I remember to seriously beat on the -EPO drum for this winter.

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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

To my untrained eye, ECMWF AI looks wetter for most of us than 12Z (noise-ish level). Low position is roughly the same as 12Z. It shows precipitation breaking out for most at or after 6Z Monday. 

qpf_048h-imp.us_ma.png

 

12Z

qpf_048h-imp.us_ma.png

Much more modest shift north than the parent ECMWF.  Hopefully it is correct.  

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

To my untrained eye, ECMWF AI looks wetter for most of us than 12Z (noise-ish level). Low position is roughly the same as 12Z. It shows precipitation breaking out for most at or after 6Z Monday. 

qpf_048h-imp.us_ma.png

 

12Z

qpf_048h-imp.us_ma.png

Yeah...just going by that 0.5" QPF line, it's definitely farther north and has a more west-east orientation.  

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Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted

Now that 18z euro is on TT, I looked at the N Atl vortex and the s/w.

Those aren’t huge shifts between 12z and 18z at 500mb. The confluence is still there, but slightly weaker and more east. The s/w is a few dm stronger, but still with a neutral tilt.

But the surface difference is dramatic. I do wonder if the Euro is overcorrecting at the surface and blip back a bit south (it won’t go as far south as gfs or icon).

In addition, these shifts are typical at 500mb 4-5 days out, and we don’t usually notice these when they are cutters and rainstorms.

just my 2 cents

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Now that 18z euro is on TT, I looked at the N Atl vortex and the s/w.

Those aren’t huge shifts between 12z and 18z at 500mb. The confluence is still there, but slightly weaker and more east. The s/w is a few dm stronger, but still with a neutral tilt.

But the surface difference is dramatic. I do wonder if the Euro is overcorrecting at the surface and blip back a bit south (it won’t go as far south as gfs or icon).

In addition, these shifts are typical at 500mb 4-5 days out, and we don’t usually notice these when they are cutters and rainstorms.

just my 2 cents

Everyone says “this never happens with rainstorms” but it does. They just don’t notice bc they don’t care. 

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bncho

bncho

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Now that 18z euro is on TT, I looked at the N Atl vortex and the s/w.

Those aren’t huge shifts between 12z and 18z at 500mb. The confluence is still there, but slightly weaker and more east. The s/w is a few dm stronger, but still with a neutral tilt.

But the surface difference is dramatic. I do wonder if the Euro is overcorrecting at the surface and blip back a bit south (it won’t go as far south as gfs or icon).

In addition, these shifts are typical at 500mb 4-5 days out, and we don’t usually notice these when they are cutters and rainstorms.

just my 2 cents

Great post. Helps ease the nerves around here. I still think DC will still mix with some ice but I think 00z Euro trends slightly south (DC bullseye or just north) and 00z GFS trends slightly north (Fredericksburg bullseye or just south of DC)

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cbmclean

cbmclean

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

the parent ECMWF.

Curious, is there any meaningful "parent-child" relationship between the ECMWF and the ECMWF AI, besides they fact that they are created by the ECMWF?  It seems like any data-driven AI model would be completely different from any numerical integration model.

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

I'm going to create an ultra platinum tag for him.

He deserves the reddest of tags. Pete is an amazing meteorolgist and one of the primary Winter Desk forecasters at WPC. I went to school with Pete. Great guys and very knowledgeable. This is the type of work that is done when looking at the big picture. It’s not just hemming and hawing over every single deterministic output. Yes, it’s great to look at, but parsing the details on the why is why we love what we do. I’ve been utilizing Cluster Analysis via DESI v3.2 which I unfortunately can’t share and trying to see the behavior of ensembles and potential outcomes. Pete broke down the primary features and some sneaky elements that could very easily sway the forecast. 
 

I hope people get a lot out of the information provided. It’s one of the ways I learned about how things work in the synoptic world when it comes to Winter Systems. Years of just reading on here from previous Red taggers and knowledgeable posters. Been a great experience with a ton of laughs in the mix. Hopefully we can bring this one home! 

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GEOS5ftw

GEOS5ftw

Posted
Posted
Curious, is there any meaningful "parent-child" relationship between the ECMWF and the ECMWF AI, besides they fact that they are created by the ECMWF?  It seems like any data-driven AI model would be completely different from any numerical integration model.

I’m not 100% sure, but I believe they use the same initial conditions. The AIFS is essentially predicting the next time step based on relationships between time steps learned from the ERA5 reanalysis, and then repeating this process out to 360 hours.
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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

He deserves the reddest of tags. Pete is an amazing meteorolgist and one of the primary Winter Desk forecasters at WPC. I went to school with Pete. Great guys and very knowledgeable. This is the type of work that is done when looking at the big picture. It’s not just hemming and hawing over every single deterministic output. Yes, it’s great to look at, but parsing the details on the why is why we love what we do. I’ve been utilizing Cluster Analysis via DESI v3.2 which I unfortunately can’t share and trying to see the behavior of ensembles and potential outcomes. Pete broke down the primary features and some sneaky elements that could very easily sway the forecast. 
 

I hope people get a lot out of the information provided. It’s one of the ways I learned about how things work in the synoptic world when it comes to Winter Systems. Years of just reading on here from previous Red taggers and knowledgeable posters. Been a great experience with a ton of laughs in the mix. Hopefully we can bring this one home! 

We got yall.   Invite more WPC and other mets here. :clap:

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AllWeather

AllWeather

Posted
Posted
He deserves the reddest of tags. Pete is an amazing meteorolgist and one of the primary Winter Desk forecasters at WPC. I went to school with Pete. Great guys and very knowledgeable. This is the type of work that is done when looking at the big picture. It’s not just hemming and hawing over every single deterministic output. Yes, it’s great to look at, but parsing the details on the why is why we love what we do. I’ve been utilizing Cluster Analysis via DESI v3.2 which I unfortunately can’t share and trying to see the behavior of ensembles and potential outcomes. Pete broke down the primary features and some sneaky elements that could very easily sway the forecast. 
 
I hope people get a lot out of the information provided. It’s one of the ways I learned about how things work in the synoptic world when it comes to Winter Systems. Years of just reading on here from previous Red taggers and knowledgeable posters. Been a great experience with a ton of laughs in the mix. Hopefully we can bring this one home! 

Lots of Millersville U Met grads around here (myself included). Cool to see the strength of that program and where it has landed folks over the years.


.
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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, AllWeather said:


Lots of Millersville U Met grads around here (myself included). Cool to see the strength of that program and where it has landed folks over the years.


.

No question about that. So happy I went there for my degree. Met and made friends with some amazing people along the way. Hopefully all is well up in LNS territory! 
 

Let’s kick this January off with a bang! 

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We got yall.   Invite more WPC and other mets here. :clap:

Appreciate it, Randy!! There’s another poster in here from WPC as well, although for whatever reason I can’t remember his tag. He’s a red tagger that will pop in from time to time. He’s been super busy recently. I’ll have to ask him to check in over the weekend as we get close. 
 

Let’s reel this -ish in, shall we :snowwindow:

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