mappy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Okay new medium/long range thread. Monday threat can stay here for now until sometime tomorrow. Please help your fellow weenies by reading more and posting less. Keep model run play by plays clean and informative. Off topic posts belong in banter. Thank you! 5 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Euro gearing up for a big hit. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 North 7 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 Y’all. For real. 90% of those posts belonged in banter. 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, TSSN+ said: North Yikes.... That's a pretty big shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Baltimore is the sweet spot here. Maybe noise? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 DC gets plenty of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, winter_warlock said: Holy crap!!! Oof! Thought it might adjust north. Guess we are not done watching this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: North Beautiful. I know this won’t be the final solution by any stretch but it’s almost 13” right over my house. I would sign up for half of that right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, BristowWx said: Oof! Thought it might adjust north. Guess we are not done watching this one. No we're not... lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: Beautiful. I know this won’t be the final solution by any stretch but it’s almost 13” right over my house. I would sign up for half of that right now. That would make up for about the last 3 winters lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Oof! Thought it might adjust north. Guess we are not done watching this one. It’s 4 days out of course we aren’t 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Now the GFS and Euro diverge! Oh boy this is gonna get interesting. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, winter_warlock said: That would make up for about the last 3 winters lol It’s been beyond brutal. Even the storm that gave DC about 11” a few years ago screwed me royally. It’s our turn now. I have had enough spending thousands of hours tracking and getting basically zero for it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 18z also has a Sunday evening start time for DC/Baltimore vs early Monday on 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 That Euro run just became a 24 hour event. Snow would start late afternoon Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Now the GFS and Euro diverge! Oh boy this is gonna get interesting. When have they really been close to each other? Gfs has been kinda loner for days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 WB 18Z EURO. Exact track; when does it transfer still needs to be figured out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 After my daughter goes to bed, I’m going to dig into why the models are diverging. But by then I may not have much to add, you all provide great insights so quickly. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, HighStakes said: That Euro run just became a 24 hour event. Snow would start late afternoon Sunday. Wow 24hours of snowfall..??? Thats a long duration event!!! Probably why totals are higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Euro isn’t good for you DC weenies either. Lots of freezing rain. Better hope for a southern shift. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Euro is impressive. Just slow it down a bit to have it come through overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Two things I think will continue to show up is suppression and decreased amounts. Models have not processed much Arctic cold with precip thrown into it for last 15 years. Most of our real cold pushes are really arid . Like 25F and 0 dp when precip is trying to get started. For whatever reason this Mongol air is more like 25/10 and we don’t get 4-6 hours of virga 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: Wow 24hours of snowfall..??? Thats a long duration event!!! Probably why totals are higher Must be some IP and ZR in there too. This could be fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Wow 24hours of snowfall..??? Thats a lot g duration event!!! Probably why totals are higher Most of Monday's snow is light. The heaviest falls overnight Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, RVAman said: Euro isn’t good for you DC weenies either. Lots of freezing rain. Better hope for a southern shift. Looks like 8.3 at DCA…with ZR on top..that’s not awful 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, BristowWx said: Looks like 8.3 at DCA…with ZR on top..that’s not awful If the northern trend continues as it typically does you might as well be in York for the brunt of it. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Looking at the sounding it doesn't look like there's a warm layer initially it's just not cold enough at the initial phase of the precip for nucleation (only -6C; need -8 at least) then we get a warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Terpeast said: After my daughter goes to bed, I’m going to dig into why the models are diverging. But by then I may not have much to add, you all provide great insights so quickly. 18z Euro has the western edge of the Atlantic gyre moviing further east starting noticeably around 78hrs. Whether that's due to weakening or just pulling east, it's hard to tell. Plus it has a 540 closed low over Missouri at 102hrs vs 543 on the 12z. The results of both are likely the reasons, or at least some of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, RVAman said: If the northern trend continues as it typically does you might as well be in York for the brunt of it. Perhaps you are correct. Actually it wouldn’t even shock me. We have lost better outcomes closer in time. Should look wintry at least. Unless we lose it all and it’s rain. Wouldn’t shock me either. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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