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Interior NW & NE Burbs 2025


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I've seen some posts  about possible wet snow events around 3/21 AM and 3/24-25 etc.

For now am not buying in...  looks like a smidge of snow on the backside for I84, mainly elevations but that could change.  

My main reason for not jumping on it is the EC AI which has lost some faithfroma. few days ago... ie no closing off aloft and slowing soon enough for us..best for coastal NNE 3/21.  

The 3/24-25 event looks like the jet structure favors inland low pressure into N NYS... mainly too warm down here.

Still could change but for now, am not enthusiastic about either. 

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Good Thursday morning everyone I84 corridor, Welcome spring -March 20! Nothing big for our I84 corridor members which includes se NYS, w CT, ne PA north of I78 and nw NJ hills of Sussex, Warren, Passaic and Morris counties. 
 
A little wet snow will occur with the rains from time to time beginning early Friday morning (tomorrow) into the first week of April. Robins snow or maybe a touch more sometime next Monday, Wednesday mornings and next weekend. No details since no confidence on amounts but you will see a little bit of snow on the grass, at the least.
 
Tomorrow morning might have a few icy spots near sunrise as rain ends as a little wet snow in the hills and temps fall below freezing. Probably no big deal.
 
I'll update this Sunday morning regarding next weeks possible minor snow hazards for the I84 corridor.
Again, welcome spring!
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 Traces of snow on the ground and/or in the air I84 high terrain, Poconos to w MA and CT overnight.  

 

Attached qpf verifies the Canadian and ECMWF modeling from 00z/20 with the GFS/GEFS continuing relatively poor verification against these global models.  SPC HREF did not capture the event properly until 00z/21... 3-6 hours before occurrence. 

I continue to monitor-rely on EC AI versus other mode modeling for wintry vs rain. ECAI many consecutive cycles continues to announce a hazardous snow ice event I84 corridor, mainly North of I84 Monday morning...suggesting winter driving habits, slower travel and /or travel delays should be in mind for those having to move along I84 higher terrain Monday morning in a healthy event.  

Screen Shot 2025-03-21 at 8.56.54 AM.png

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3 hours ago, wdrag said:

 Traces of snow on the ground and/or in the air I84 high terrain, Poconos to w MA and CT overnight.  

 

Attached qpf verifies the Canadian and ECMWF modeling from 00z/20 with the GFS/GEFS continuing relatively poor verification against these global models.  SPC HREF did not capture the event properly until 00z/21... 3-6 hours before occurrence. 

I continue to monitor-rely on EC AI versus other mode modeling for wintry vs rain. ECAI many consecutive cycles continues to announce a hazardous snow ice event I84 corridor, mainly North of I84 Monday morning...suggesting winter driving habits, slower travel and /or travel delays should be in mind for those having to move along I84 higher terrain Monday morning in a healthy event.  

Screen Shot 2025-03-21 at 8.56.54 AM.png

Walt, it won't make it down as snow south of I-80 in the Southern Poconos, even at 2,000 feet and above (for example: Lake Harmony)?

 

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21 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It was a question lol. I'm driving up there this weekend so I was wondering.

Well...  you could be right.  

My thinking is that there will be a mix of snow-sleet-freezing rain down to 1000 feet in ne PA/nw NJ with scattered slippery spots in the midnight-7AM Monday time frame (untreated).  It can snow-sleet down to lowest elevations there but not accumulate due to temps above freezing.   Best areas for accumulations and necessary road treatments looks to me to be hills above 1000 feet, especially Catskills and n of I84 in CT/MA.  That's prelim. 

HRRR looks like it might be too cold Monday 12z, but its temps run warm so a bit of a surprise.  RGEM/Canadian have been a little colder so far.  ECAI has edged north slightly the past few cycles.I have not checked wet bulbs yet at 12z Monday. 

More tomorrow morning... grand dadding this weekend.

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Good Sunday morning everyone, March 23. Just a quick post for not much of a Monday morning I84 high terrain problem. A bit of snow/sleet/ice tomorrow morning for our I84 members, mainly on I84 and north. This might cause a few slippery spots on untreated surfaces. Timing for the Poconos, and terrain above 1000 feet in nw NJ-se NYS-mainly 1A-8A Monday, and for far northern CT and interior MA mainly 4A-10A.  Heaviest snow fall of 1-2" northwest MA, otherwise less than 1/2" elsewhere, if that. Just a nuisance but be alert near dawn. Rain quickly follows Monday morning-midday. The NWS 4AM snowfall map is attached. There ae no winter advisories posted for our members as of 6AM today.
 
Noting the 11am modeling freezing rain signal seems to be increasing a bit for the Poconos-Catskills, extreme nw NJ high terrain above 1000 feet tomorrow morning. 
 
Nothing else widespread is ahead in this coolish next two weeks. Wednesday morning might be a target for the Poconos, nw NJ and se NYS but overall it doesn't look impressive.

Screen Shot 2025-03-23 at 6.29.46 AM.png

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5 hours ago, wdrag said:
Good Sunday morning everyone, March 23. Just a quick post for not much of a Monday morning I84 high terrain problem. A bit of snow/sleet/ice tomorrow morning for our I84 members, mainly on I84 and north. This might cause a few slippery spots on untreated surfaces. Timing for the Poconos, and terrain above 1000 feet in nw NJ-se NYS-mainly 1A-8A Monday, and for far northern CT and interior MA mainly 4A-10A.  Heaviest snow fall of 1-2" northwest MA, otherwise less than 1/2" elsewhere, if that. Just a nuisance but be alert near dawn. Rain quickly follows Monday morning-midday. The NWS 4AM snowfall map is attached. There ae no winter advisories posted for our members as of 6AM today.
 
Noting the 11am modeling freezing rain signal seems to be increasing a bit for the Poconos-Catskills, extreme nw NJ high terrain above 1000 feet tomorrow morning. 
 
Nothing else widespread is ahead in this coolish next two weeks. Wednesday morning might be a target for the Poconos, nw NJ and se NYS but overall it doesn't look impressive.

Screen Shot 2025-03-23 at 6.29.46 AM.png

Thanks for the map, Walt-- it looks like the 0.1 line is almost to Allentown!

I hope you've had a wonderful weekend, Walt.

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I heard a few pings before sunrise but if you didn't see it happening you would've missed it because it turned wet pretty quickly.

I've been kind of surprised at how good the reservoir levels are recently, one of the big ones is still really low but I think that's because of work being done. Ground moisture is also better than I thought it would be with large areas of standing water high up in watershed areas and good volume in the local creeks. 

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

I heard a few pings before sunrise but if you didn't see it happening you would've missed it because it turned wet pretty quickly.

I've been kind of surprised at how good the reservoir levels are recently, one of the big ones is still really low but I think that's because of work being done. Ground moisture is also better than I thought it would be with large areas of standing water high up in watershed areas and good volume in the local creeks. 

Yeah, I was out again saturday and it looks wet to me.  I don't get how we're still in D1.

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Summary for the model too far south fail-lack of wintry yesterday morning: A few pings or sprits of snow-ice I84 corridor, mainly high terrain and especially northern MA but no NWS storm reports so basis of assessment is mPing and two day CoCoRaHs totals. 

A terrible March for us here in se NYS-nw NJ-Poconios regarding late winter snow. I still hold out hope but possibly winter is about done for me here - hasn't measured here at 740' elevation since Feb 20.   The only reason I hold out hope is that sometimes a bang of a start to winter can end similarly with a branch breaker snowfall for the elevations. 

Modeling may again be biased too far south for the 4/2-4/25 snow-ice risk I84 corridor. 

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