wdrag Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Large differences between 00z/1 GEFS vs EPS-GEPS for 3/8-10. The latter two ensembles do not permit the southern system from coming north. From looking at the 5H 06z/1 ensemble members... it appears to me that a southern system will come north to affect our area with hazardous snow... that's my opinion only, probably more 3/9. I'll only back down when the GEFS shows WESTERLY flow here and confluence south of I80. All the 192hr 06z/1 green 5H members in the TN Valley is what I'm monitoring for change in the future. Alsmot looks like we're trying to separate streams. One day at a time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 55 minutes ago, wdrag said: Large differences between 00z/1 GEFS vs EPS-GEPS for 3/8-10. The latter two ensembles do not permit the southern system from coming north. From looking at the 5H 06z/1 ensemble members... it appears to me that a southern system will come north to affect our area with hazardous snow... that's my opinion only, probably more 3/9. I'll only back down when the GEFS shows WESTERLY flow here and confluence south of I80. All the 192hr 06z/1 green 5H members in the TN Valley is what I'm monitoring for change in the future. Alsmot looks like we're trying to separate streams. One day at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 1 Author Share Posted March 1 If it hasn’t already happened for you, you’ll know when the front is moving through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 1 Author Share Posted March 1 @BxEnginedon't judge, It had been a while since I had this delicious brew but that streak has ended as I'm enjoying them as my bride challenges me to a game of bar top curling. And I know that the pint glass is from a different brewery. A true beer, not that IPA crap but I digress. After a high of 58 down to 38 with an occasional flurry. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 I was in SE CT when the front went thru, temp went from 62°>44° in just a few minutes and there was a light squall as it dropped through the 50s. That was cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 6 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: If it hasn’t already happened for you, you’ll know when the front is moving through. How come weather maps don't routinely show the fronts any more? They used to be a fixture on the daily forecasts, not so much any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 2 Author Share Posted March 2 4 minutes ago, etudiant said: How come weather maps don't routinely show the fronts any more? They used to be a fixture on the daily forecasts, not so much any more. I'll go here to look at the fronts: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 6 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: @BxEnginedon't judge, It had been a while since I had this delicious brew but that streak has ended as I'm enjoying them as my bride challenges me to a game of bar top curling. And I know that the pint glass is from a different brewery. A true beer, not that IPA crap but I digress. After a high of 58 down to 38 with an occasional flurry. The pub is my favorite place. The great adirondack unfortunately closed last year suddenly. That spot had great beer and amazing steak. But if the pub ever closes im starting a gofundme to buy it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 6 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: @BxEnginedon't judge, It had been a while since I had this delicious brew but that streak has ended as I'm enjoying them as my bride challenges me to a game of bar top curling. And I know that the pint glass is from a different brewery. A true beer, not that IPA crap but I digress. After a high of 58 down to 38 with an occasional flurry. Good luck with the curling competition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 11 hours ago, etudiant said: How come weather maps don't routinely show the fronts any more? They used to be a fixture on the daily forecasts, not so much any more. I never liked the way they showed fronts on weather maps. The lines are way too thick and I'd much rather they show a very thin line that updates every 30 minutes to show the precise location of the front (as in which town it's currently in.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 Got down to 17f here in the tropics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 2 Author Share Posted March 2 25 minutes ago, Hitman said: Got down to 17f here in the tropics Low was only 16 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 Wantage NJ low 15.1 with wind and another slight dusting of snow on the ground by 5AM. Small possibly hazardous snow for the period 3/8-10 continues to look good, also now 3/14-16 period mixed. Small chance damaging wind potential Wed aft/eve convection, looks potentially somewhat more significant on NW flow across the ridges Thu night. Optics on WPC D7 qpf and chance 4" of snow (3z-05z/2) doesn't seem well coordinated. Problems for the public could start cropping up very soon on weather information dissemination from government sources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 3 Author Share Posted March 3 Holding on for dear life... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 5 Author Share Posted March 5 It didn't take long into my little commute to find out that this inversion was less than 100 feet above my yard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1.14” in the hopper. Healthy dose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 6 Author Share Posted March 6 .70" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 .88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 .99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 So this is the best we can do in what was once a long-long outlook (Feb 27 start) for a hazardous wintry snow event here this 3/6-10 period. Flurries now, maybe again tomorrow morning, maybe again Sunday night? Northern stream didnt deepen-dig quite as much modeled, probably because it left the southern stream energy behind so no phasing. Flurries are not a victory,but the chosen period was reasonable when outlooked earlier in the thread. More opportunities for 3/17 and beyond. First we may see heavy rain and high wind next weekend. No threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 Pretty cool squall moving through now, left a nice thin coating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 vsby 3/4SW- here in Wantage NJ. melting as it falls 31.5 down from earlier--916A Trace of whitening on grass/dirt but only a T and snowboards wet. 919A. sun out, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 2 hours ago, wdrag said: So this is the best we can do in what was once a long-long outlook (Feb 27 start) for a hazardous wintry snow event here this 3/6-10 period. Flurries now, maybe again tomorrow morning, maybe again Sunday night? Northern stream didnt deepen-dig quite as much modeled, probably because it left the southern stream energy behind so no phasing. Flurries are not a victory,but the chosen period was reasonable when outlooked earlier in the thread. More opportunities for 3/17 and beyond. First we may see heavy rain and high wind next weekend. No threads. It's good that the weather won't mess up the pi day total lunar eclipse 3/14 at 3:14 am lol (totality is really from 2:30 to 3:30 am). it can rain after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 I84 corridor: Aside from decent rain 3/4-2" and spotty 45-50 MPH wind gusts by 12z Monday (isolated power outages but not as extensive for us as 3/6-7), all consecutive cycles available on Pivotal of the ECAI are giving snow accumulation to the I84 corridor this coming Friday morning (3/21). Am monitoring for possible continued consistency. Would be nice to add on some sloppy wet snow to 25.6 here in this part of Wantage. Will check back next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 I rode this weekend at blue mtn in Peekskill and it does not appear dry. Streams flowing healthily, wetlands filled. Definitely didn’t look like d1 drought conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 I've been wondering what it's like in the woods, I've been nearly hobbled by a bout of sciatica and can't do shit My local ponds are all maxed. I guess we had enough snow and ice to soak the upper layers and it all released. Now we need some real rain before the trees start leafing out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 17 Author Share Posted March 17 Looking at the radar, looks like I'll get almost dry slotted. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 35 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Looking at the radar, looks like I'll get almost dry slotted. We'll see. Upton’s is thinking that we’re going to get some decent rain according to their AFD. Radar looks just ok currently we’ll see in a couple of hours. A section of their AFD, NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... A line of convection across eastern PA and upstate NY along a prefrontal trough will continue to weaken as it pushes east towards the area this evening. Strong onshore flow will push stable maritime air inland as the this convection pushes east. The latest SPC mesoanalysis indicated no surface instability over the area, which also gives confidence the line will continue to weaken as it approaches. The prefrontal trough and associated cold front will move into the region tonight. There will still be showers and embedded elevated thunder with the aforementioned weakening convective line, but it appears a resurgence of showers will occur from southwest to northeast across the area with strengthening low level jet in combination with increasing upper divergence from a an approaching jet streak to our northwest. This will likely induce a weak wave of the frontal boundary, which will increase convergence and lift overnight. While shower activity will initially be limited early this evening, moderate to locally heavy showers are expected to increase in coverage late this evening into the overnight hours. PWATs range anywhere from 1.3-1.6 inches supporting potential for some locally heavy downpours. Still think a few rumbles of thunder are possible, but elevated instability is minimal overnight. HRRR has indicated a marginal MUCAPE even across eastern Long Island overnight, so will mention slight chance of thunder there as well. The heaviest rain may shift east of the NYC metro by early Monday morning with a steadier stratiform rain from the city on NW. Peak rainfall rates from 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour seem most likely although a few downpours could briefly be a bit higher up to 1 inch per hour. The main concern tonight into early Monday will be from minor urban and poor drainage flooding. Eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut stand the best shot at seeing a longer duration of heavier downpours, so cannot completely rule out a localized instance of flash flooding here. Rainfall totals around 1.5" to 2.50" are forecast, highest across eastern portions of the area. Locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out where the heaviest downpours occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 17 Author Share Posted March 17 9 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Upton’s is thinking that we’re going to get some decent rain according to their AFD. Radar looks just ok currently we’ll see in a couple of hours. A section of their AFD, NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... A line of convection across eastern PA and upstate NY along a prefrontal trough will continue to weaken as it pushes east towards the area this evening. Strong onshore flow will push stable maritime air inland as the this convection pushes east. The latest SPC mesoanalysis indicated no surface instability over the area, which also gives confidence the line will continue to weaken as it approaches. The prefrontal trough and associated cold front will move into the region tonight. There will still be showers and embedded elevated thunder with the aforementioned weakening convective line, but it appears a resurgence of showers will occur from southwest to northeast across the area with strengthening low level jet in combination with increasing upper divergence from a an approaching jet streak to our northwest. This will likely induce a weak wave of the frontal boundary, which will increase convergence and lift overnight. While shower activity will initially be limited early this evening, moderate to locally heavy showers are expected to increase in coverage late this evening into the overnight hours. PWATs range anywhere from 1.3-1.6 inches supporting potential for some locally heavy downpours. Still think a few rumbles of thunder are possible, but elevated instability is minimal overnight. HRRR has indicated a marginal MUCAPE even across eastern Long Island overnight, so will mention slight chance of thunder there as well. The heaviest rain may shift east of the NYC metro by early Monday morning with a steadier stratiform rain from the city on NW. Peak rainfall rates from 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour seem most likely although a few downpours could briefly be a bit higher up to 1 inch per hour. The main concern tonight into early Monday will be from minor urban and poor drainage flooding. Eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut stand the best shot at seeing a longer duration of heavier downpours, so cannot completely rule out a localized instance of flash flooding here. Rainfall totals around 1.5" to 2.50" are forecast, highest across eastern portions of the area. Locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out where the heaviest downpours occur. 10 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: Looking at the radar, looks like I'll get almost dry slotted. We'll see. 1.06" My station was at the top of Orange County with Uptons first rain total report early this morning. A great call by me LOL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 .7” here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now