jburns Posted Saturday at 02:19 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:19 AM 2 hours ago, BooneWX said: I’d take a breather on these comments. Yall are all wasting your time. A salt circle with a sacrificed rabbit on a stake in the middle got me nothing but a sleet fest last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Saturday at 02:20 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:20 AM Even the local mets here are mentioning how these systems tend to come NW from what the models are showing. It has happened with the GFS today, while the Euro has been stubborn so far. The Canadian has consistently been showing a big storm for a lot of folks. The local mets haven't said anything about the cold air being too cold to keep the system from coming more NW than what the Euro is showing so far. I am just wondering if it is going to happen with the Euro when should we start seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted Saturday at 02:22 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:22 AM 21 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I don’t think this is coming all the way back. I think you want to be in New Bern or Kinston here. Unfortunately I think you’re right. The NW trend just isn’t going to come far enough for those of us in RDU. Fab Feb for us I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted Saturday at 02:29 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:29 AM NAM coming in with energy more west. Still trending folks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Saturday at 02:36 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:36 AM From JB regarding the Gulf coast potential: I -10 shut down. This can be historic. Its one thing for one area to get some snow or ice between San Antonia and Jacksonville. but the whole corridor on the gulf coast probably has not happened since 1899 ( and there was no I-10 there, but you get the message). Its hard to believe what can happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Saturday at 02:40 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:40 AM 17 minutes ago, snowinnc said: Unfortunately I think you’re right. The NW trend just isn’t going to come far enough for those of us in RDU. Fab Feb for us I guess. Still a couple of days away from knowing anything like that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Saturday at 02:44 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:44 AM NAM at 84 looks like the last GFS run to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Saturday at 02:50 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:50 AM The EURO AI looks about what I expect will happen here, it may come a tad north of that in the end but I stand by the idea the CMC is wrong and maybe even the GFS now is too north 1 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted Saturday at 02:52 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:52 AM 6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: NAM at 84 looks like the last GFS run to me. Actually, looks better to me. Caught the west coast low and drug it along for the ride. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted Saturday at 02:55 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:55 AM 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: Since we have a lot of App and ncst grads, they won't know the difference from chicken anyways Does that work for sleet...really? Can I roast a chicken and pull in a sleet fest?? I've just been chanting...sleet, sleet, sleet.... And all I got was a quarter inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Saturday at 02:56 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:56 AM The 0z NAM looks good at 84... It's not in good range , so hard to trust it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted Saturday at 02:56 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:56 AM 32 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: For the person who said rdu was out. Seriously? Almost every model shows something for Wake County. Even an inch of snow would be welcome. Reverse jinx is what I’m doing here!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Saturday at 02:56 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 02:56 AM Just now, dsaur said: Does that work for sleet...really? Can I roast a chicken and pull in a sleet fest?? I've just been chanting...sleet, sleet, sleet.... And all I got was a quarter inch. I would have gladly sent you some sleet last week Tony. We had about an inch of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted Saturday at 02:59 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:59 AM 18 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Still a couple of days away from knowing anything like that I’m trying a reverse jinx here. Let’s see if it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Saturday at 02:59 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:59 AM 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The 0z NAM looks good at 84... It's not in good range , so hard to trust it Used to know what the NAM indicated but not anymore, up til 6-7 years ago it always had an amped bias at 72-84 so if it was not grossly NW of everything else you knew where things stood but it underwent an upgrade in 2017 I think and since then that bias is gone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Saturday at 03:00 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:00 AM The EPS showed an inch of snow for central NC on the 1/21-1/22 system and then another inch from a system 1/24-1/26 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Saturday at 03:08 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:08 AM CHS: LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/ THE FORECAST IS STARTING TO NARROW IN ON A WETTER AND COLDER SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING MID-WEEK WINTER EVENT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS, EC AND CMC ARE STARTING TO ALIGN WITH SUPPORT FROM MANY OF THEIR ACCOMPANYING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS COUPLED WITH TRENDS NOTED IN THE NBM IS FINALLY ALLOWING FOR SOME INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE EVENT WILL UNFOLD AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE P-TYPES WILL EVOLVE AS THE EVENT PROGRESSES, BUT IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN EVENT WHICH COULD BRING IMPACTS, POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT, TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT ENHANCED FORCING INDUCED BY BANDS OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COULD YIELD CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES, WHICH COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. HOW MUCH OF THIS ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR IS YET TO BE DETERMINED AND CAN NOT BE READILY IDENTIFIED THIS FAR OUT. THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THESE BANDS COULD AUGMENT BOTH P-TYPES, PRECIPITATION RATES AND ACCUMULATIONS. IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO IDENTITY ANY SPECIFIC SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS THIS FAR OUT, BUT THE PROBABILITIES FOR BOTH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE ARE INCREASING AND THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. TIMING FOR THE PERIOD OF GREATEST IMPACTS LOOKS TO CENTER ON THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY WEDNESDAY PERIOD WHEN THE COLDEST AIR WILL ALIGN WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD REACH PARTS OF THE GEORGIA COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted Saturday at 03:12 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:12 AM 13 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I would have gladly sent you some sleet last week Tony. We had about an inch of it. I'd gladly trade snow for sleet, but Larry claims wishes don't do anything. Now I know why when I wished for a dollar from the tooth fairy all those years ago, instead of a dime, I ended up with a nickle 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Saturday at 03:17 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:17 AM 0z RGEM looks good at the end of its run... Cold isn't as pressed as 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Saturday at 03:21 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:21 AM EASTERN ALACHUA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GAINESVILLE, GAINESVILLE AIRPORT, AND NEWNANS LAKE 841 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025 MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MID 20S. TUESDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MID 20S IN THE MORNING. TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 20. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Saturday at 03:22 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:22 AM 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 0z RGEM looks good at the end of its run... Cold isn't as pressed as 18z Lots of precip. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Saturday at 03:25 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:25 AM 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Lots of precip. Definitely was headed in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Saturday at 03:25 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:25 AM Icon: snow furthest N of last 3 runs S of that snow is ZR down to Gainesville to JAX corridor qpf Tue afternoon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Saturday at 03:41 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:41 AM 84 hour 0Z RGEM fwiw has not quite as strong Arctic high nearby and 540/546 thicknesses are slightly further N ahead of the low vs 12Z CMC 96. I wonder if this means 0Z CMC will be slightly further north than 12Z with snow line. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted Saturday at 03:58 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:58 AM Early on GFS precip doesn’t look as widespread in Texas as 18z but too early to see any trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Saturday at 04:00 AM Share Posted Saturday at 04:00 AM Incoming on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Saturday at 04:01 AM Share Posted Saturday at 04:01 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted Saturday at 04:01 AM Share Posted Saturday at 04:01 AM Good streak of snow into north central Ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Saturday at 04:02 AM Share Posted Saturday at 04:02 AM GFS staying the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Saturday at 04:02 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 04:02 AM East with the heaviest precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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