BornAgain13 Posted Friday at 06:46 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:46 PM As I've looked and looked over data and looking at past storms in this scenario, yes the NW trend does happen more times than none... However, and I hope I'm wrong but I think with this storm, it's becoming clear the NW trend won't come but so far because of just how cold this press is coming down.... I do find it interesting that the CMC ensembles actually increased this run inland lol... But when would we go against the euro and EPS ? I'm happy for y'all who hardly ever see snow. I hope y'all get it! I would love for the whole forum to get an area wide storm with this but that is not looking likely 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Friday at 06:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:48 PM Brad P said on X that there has not been a NW trend. He says the low track and vorticity has not moved NW, only the snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheoahBald1 Posted Friday at 06:51 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:51 PM Brad P said on X that there has not been a NW trend. He says the low track and vorticity has not moved NW, only the snow maps.Eric Webb and Joe B say otherwise... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted Friday at 06:52 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:52 PM Hey just checking in from Tallahassee -- haven't really been paying much attention to the weather, seems like the time of year when folks in the Carolinas have a shot for a snowstorm. Boy it sure does make me jealous ... anyway, hope all is well .... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted Friday at 06:54 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:54 PM 3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Brad P said on X that there has not been a NW trend. He says the low track and vorticity has not moved NW, only the snow maps. I highly respect Brad and think he’s normally spot on and level headed. But model trends would show otherwise. You can see the low move. Maybe you can argue there wasn’t a low there prior but still it clearly is shifting. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Friday at 06:54 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:54 PM I actually think EPS trended much better, but what do I know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Friday at 06:56 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:56 PM 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: I actually think EPS trended much better, but what do I know I’m going to be negative and shitty today to try something different. I hate them. 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted Friday at 06:56 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:56 PM 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Brad P said on X that there has not been a NW trend. He says the low track and vorticity has not moved NW, only the snow maps. Oh well then, what the hell are we all doing here? Relax everyone! You can stop watching now That's obviously a joke, and to be clear, I never said it would suddenly shift NW to an I-85 jackpot. I just don't believe it will be as far suppressed as currently shown. Yes - that's primarily just anecdotal history. But until I see the cold match the prog, I'm still going to lean toward this becoming at least a little more NW as it plays out. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gamecockinupstateSC Posted Friday at 06:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:58 PM "I actually think EPS trended much better, but what do I know" It appears it did. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KrummWx Posted Friday at 07:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:15 PM I've got fam in PC FL. I am hoping for them this pans out 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 07:16 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:16 PM CMC ensemble mean in step with the op. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted Friday at 07:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:18 PM 28 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Brad P said on X that there has not been a NW trend. He says the low track and vorticity has not moved NW, only the snow maps. Brad is a great Met, but is a noted snow miser/pessimist. Maybe it's his Ohio roots not liking snow or something. Unfortunately, given the propensity for busts in/around CLT, he's also usually right. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted Friday at 07:21 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:21 PM 1 hour ago, GaWx said: The 12Z CMC is amazing with an unheard of massive sleetstorm for much of our corridor with 2.5” at AYS and 4.3” at SVN! Qpf 1.2” AYS, 1.67” SVN with all but the very early light qpf with 2m temps of 27-25F: ZR: AYS 0.30”, SVN 0.05” Snow: 0.3” AYS/SVN; Gainesville 0.31” @Awesomesauce81 @gtg947h @pcbjr Only 3 1/2 counties away. Keep it coming up and maybe you'll be out of the zr, and I'll be in the sleet and snow, instead of all snow! I'd love 4 inches of sleet again..big time....but 15 inches of snow would be hard to turn down for sleet. 8 inches sure, but over a foot, no way. Right now it's near 60 so dreams of frozen seem so far away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Friday at 07:36 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:36 PM 19 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: CMC ensemble mean in step with the op. That's the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Friday at 07:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:37 PM This is a ridiculous snow mean. Very unlikely but purty to look at 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Friday at 07:40 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:40 PM 45 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I actually think EPS trended much better, but what do I know It actually did. But how much more will it improve. I guess we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Friday at 07:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:43 PM 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: This is a ridiculous snow mean. Very unlikely but purty to look at What is this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Friday at 07:45 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:45 PM 2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: What is this 12z CMC ensemble snow mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 07:50 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:50 PM 44 minutes ago, KrummWx said: I've got fam in PC FL. I am hoping for them this pans out Even after reducing members somewhat for it being 10:1 instead of Kuchera, ~1/3 of the 12Z EPS members give just about the entire TLH to AYS to SAV corridor and surrounding areas the heaviest snow on modern records (back to at least late 1800s to early 1900s)! And this mean isn’t including sleet or ZR. Just over 50% give JAX and between 1/4 and 1/3 even give @pcbjrmeasurable snow! This is still a crucial 4.5 days out and the NW trend threat is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD13 Posted Friday at 07:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:55 PM 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: Even after reducing members somewhat for it being 10:1 instead of Kuchera, ~1/3 of the 12Z EPS members give just about the entire TLH to AYS to SAV corridor and surrounding areas the heaviest snow on modern records (back to at least late 1800s to early 1900s)! And this mean isn’t including sleet or ZR. Just over 50% give JAX and between 1/4 and 1/3 even give @pcbjrmeasurable snow! Thanks for the updates for the coastal crew! I’m in CHS, hoping this one is our storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shenanagins1091 Posted Friday at 07:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:59 PM If it snows an actual measurable about here at the beaches of bama, I'm taking off work and having a drink sesh on the beach 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redteamllc Posted Friday at 08:04 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:04 PM 12 minutes ago, GaWx said: Even after reducing members somewhat for it being 10:1 instead of Kuchera, ~1/3 of the 12Z EPS members give just about the entire TLH to AYS to SAV corridor and surrounding areas the heaviest snow on modern records (back to at least late 1800s to early 1900s)! And this mean isn’t including sleet or ZR. Just over 50% give JAX and between 1/4 and 1/3 even give @pcbjrmeasurable snow! This is still a crucial 4.5 days out and the NW trend threat is still there. Am I the only one that notices that snow seems to happen wherever you happen to be? This may cause a run on show shovels for South Ga., Fl, and Sc but they deserve a wonderland if it happens. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 08:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:14 PM 17 minutes ago, redteamllc said: Am I the only one that notices that snow seems to happen wherever you happen to be? This may cause a run on show shovels for South Ga., Fl, and Sc but they deserve a wonderland if it happens. Well for the 1st one I cheated (traveled) based on models to get to near my old stomping grounds after any chance for here trended NW away from here like usual and after not having seen a flake in 7 years. And we all know this one is far from certain. I had actually been considering going back to ATL to get their 2nd round (small chance I’d reconsider) and get out of the big ZR danger zone. But at least now I have 2 small power backups coming just in case and will check into dry ice as was recommended by Tony although that may be hard to deal with from what I’ve read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted Friday at 08:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:18 PM 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: Well I cheated (traveled) to get to the first one after any chance for here trended NW away like usual and after not having seen a flake in 7 years. And we all know this one is far from certain. I had actually been considering going back to ATL to get their 2nd round (small chance I’d reconsider) and get out of the big ZR danger zone. But at least now I have 2 small power backups coming just in case and will check into dry ice as was recommended. Are you thinking as of now, somewhere between SAV and ATL may be the best snow chance for this storm? I would think Macon looks to be in a good spot as of now. I remember researching a few storms in the 60's or 70's where Macon got like a foot of snow or close to it, and ATL did not get much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 08:19 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:19 PM Just now, neatlburbwthrguy said: Are you thinking as of now, somewhere between SAV and ATL may be the best snow chance for this storm? I would think Macon looks to be in a good spot as of now. I remember researching a few storms in the 60's or 70's where Macon got like a foot of snow or close to it, and ATL did not get much. Likely. Feb 9-10 of 1973 was huge there and gave ATL nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Friday at 08:22 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:22 PM Apparently the storm in New England for this weekend has trended so far nw that Boston went from 0 to nearly being rained on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phelps Posted Friday at 08:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:27 PM 1 hour ago, SnowDeac said: Brad is a great Met, but is a noted snow miser/pessimist. Maybe it's his Ohio roots not liking snow or something. Unfortunately, given the propensity for busts in/around CLT, he's also usually right. Brad loves snow. It’s his job to tell reliably people if it’s going to snow or not and most of the time it’s not. You can tell he’s basically just worn out from having to answer for clown maps that break containment. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted Friday at 08:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:28 PM 13 minutes ago, GaWx said: Well for the 1st one I cheated (traveled) based on models to get to near my old stomping grounds after any chance for here trended NW away from here like usual and after not having seen a flake in 7 years. And we all know this one is far from certain. I had actually been considering going back to ATL to get their 2nd round (small chance I’d reconsider) and get out of the big ZR danger zone. But at least now I have 2 small power backups coming just in case and will check into dry ice as was recommended by Tony although that may be hard to deal with from what I’ve read. Did you see my note about your fridge wattage? If not go back and look at my quoted response. Something is not correct. Your power backups should work fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Friday at 08:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:31 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bankdawg Posted Friday at 08:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:31 PM I havent logged in in about 10 years. Could this really be it for south GA? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now