BornAgain13 Posted Friday at 12:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:31 PM 14 minutes ago, metalicwx367 said: 6Z Euro has big area of S GA getting an inch or more of FZRA w/ temps in the upper 20s. I'm pretty sure that's a shift NW from where 0z was right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Friday at 12:44 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:44 PM Euro ensembles for central NC are low. Roughly 25% chance of 1" of snow. It has shown that over the last 2 major runs (00Z and 12Z). Hard to go against that right now and we need to see it start shifting in the next 24-48 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx367 Posted Friday at 12:45 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:45 PM 14 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: I'm pretty sure that's a shift NW from where 0z was right? Yep it shifted NW. 0Z Euro had us all snow down here. The more this shifts NW, the higher our chances are at getting a historic ice storm in S GA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNoseHater Posted Friday at 12:46 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:46 PM I won’t pretend to be anything other than a casual observer, but after EVERY freaking storm has missed Charlotte due to the NW trend over the last few years, I’m going to be annoyed if there’s no NW trend now that it’s actually cold. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Friday at 12:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:55 PM Anyone have the SPIRE Model? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Friday at 12:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:55 PM 8 minutes ago, WarmNoseHater said: I won’t pretend to be anything other than a casual observer, but after EVERY freaking storm has missed Charlotte due to the NW trend over the last few years, I’m going to be annoyed if there’s no NW trend now that it’s actually cold. Central NC (and portions of Charlotte metro area) really have to thread the needle with winter storms... If it is too warm, then frozen stays to NW. Too cold and frozen goes to SE. That's why a lot of folks here will say that you want to be right on the edge of the snow/rain line to get the most. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Friday at 01:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:02 PM I’ll say this, if I was in the bullseye of snow RN with the NW trends on GFS and to an extent Euro at this range, I’d be pretty nervous. Only thing giving me pause for real hope is EPS doesn’t have that many solutions more NW, making it feel like the NW trend might be limited here. GFS, Canadian, and UK isn’t a terrible camp to be in but EPS needs to hop on board or it kinda feels like fools gold. Thankfully there’s still time. Today and tomorrow will be important to see actual trends develop. Model variance isn’t even close to where it was this time yesterday so models are definitely coming into alignment on the general idea of the storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Friday at 01:09 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:09 PM Funny that yesterday we had the EPS and not the GFS now it’s flipped. Tough to get the band together. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Friday at 01:09 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:09 PM Are we sure these are trends nw or just better precip coverage? Seems more like the latter to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Friday at 01:10 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:10 PM If the Canadian scores a coup here we will need to remember that for future tracking when we have a real Arctic airmass pressing like this one. It feels like that model always wants to create an Arctic airmass out of whatever cold is available and that causes it to always be a cold outlier. Maybe actually working with an Arctic airmass like this one it verifies better. Of all guidance it has by far been the most consistent here. Definitely an interesting development especially after seeing the GFS trend towards it after going far away the last two days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Friday at 01:12 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:12 PM 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: Are we sure these are trends nw or just better precip coverage? Seems more like the latter to me. GFS is a couple hundred miles NW with the LP than where it was at 18z yesterday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Friday at 01:13 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:13 PM 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Funny that yesterday we had the EPS and not the GFS now it’s flipped. Tough to get the band together. I know right?!?! That’s kind of giving me hope bc the two suites that at some point have shown snowless solutions have also been the most inconsistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Friday at 01:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:14 PM I’ll say this. I agree with @NorthHillsWx. Being in the bullseye at day 4 for a southern storm is usually a death wish. 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Friday at 01:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:18 PM I'm 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted Friday at 01:26 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:26 PM 8 hours ago, BornAgain13 said: 0z UK. Very sharp cut off to the west. A lot of this is also ice near the coast. The ole I-85 cutoff! LOL 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx367 Posted Friday at 01:26 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:26 PM 29 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Anyone have the SPIRE Model? Lol Yeah suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Friday at 01:30 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 01:30 PM It must be DCs winter to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted Friday at 01:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:33 PM I would say the most positive trend on the GFS is how the shortwave is trending over the last few runs. Definitely sharper and going more neutral, if this continues I would think the angle and moisture transport over the Gulf should become more expansive over the next few runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Friday at 01:38 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:38 PM 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It must be DCs winter to get snow. And on their forum you’d think they were in Raleigh’s snow drought… They are pretty much guaranteed to finish the winter above their climo and with below average temps but if they don’t get a once in 50 year storm it’s a season fail 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Friday at 01:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:43 PM 1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said: love where we sit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Friday at 01:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:47 PM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Friday at 01:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:49 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted Friday at 01:50 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:50 PM wow is that trending nw, at least the precip has more nw coverage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Friday at 01:52 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:52 PM GFS trend in action https://x.com/realcoldrain/status/1880250038003364330?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Friday at 01:52 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:52 PM 3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: It’s on an island by itself right now but this is a solution that most of us should root for. No track change but add in the full phase and we’d all get to eat with little consequence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted Friday at 01:53 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:53 PM 5 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: that is a nice nw trend if we can get the euro to jump on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted Friday at 01:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:55 PM Maybe the Canadian has it right…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Friday at 01:56 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:56 PM While we wait for 12z... a helpful guide for our friends on the coast 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx367 Posted Friday at 01:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:58 PM EC AIFS. Temps in south Georgia are in mid to upper 20s for entire event. Carolinas in the upper 10s to low 20s. 850s would support mainly snow across North Carolina, South Carolina mixed, and Southern GA all FZRA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted Friday at 02:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:03 PM 4 minutes ago, metalicwx367 said: EC AIFS. Temps in south Georgia are in mid to upper 20s for entire event. Carolinas in the upper 10s to low 20s. 850s would support mainly snow across North Carolina, South Carolina mixed, and Southern GA all FZRA. 06z and 00z, couple more moves like that and everyone might be happy. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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