Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[dsaur]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I just checked. The wattage for my fridge/freezer is 1,800. So, now it appears this Anker PStation that’s 300W and peaks at 600 wouldn’t be nearly enough. Hmmmm.

 Getting more powerful power stations on Amazon would take 2 weeks (too late). Maybe I could find one at a brick and mortar store?

Try Walmart.  If the Canadian verifies you'll be buried in snow, and maybe it won't be as bad unless trees fall on lines, but the outages won't last as long.  NC routinely sees  a foot of snow, and I don't see the horror stories that I do with zr. Look on line and order online to pick up at the store.  You get better deals that way as long as it's in stock. You don't want it shipped to the store. Home Depot too, Lowes, Tractor Supply maybe.

[dsaur]

Larry, try to find a dry ice supplier you can buy from just before the zr, if it comes. And the UK not the  Canadian buries you, but which ever they give you snow, so all is well, lol.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, gamecockinupstateSC said:

The Pivotal UKMET “snowfall” maps are unfortunately typically very inaccurate because they count non-snow wintry precip as snow. The vast majority of this in S and SE GA as well as E SC and a large portion up to 100 miles inland and especially 50-75 miles inland is not snow because 850s on the run are clearly warmer than 0C. For example, the 8-9” showing at SAV, Statesboro, and CHS is very deceiving as most to all of this is ZR and IP. I wish that weren’t the case! So, the UK is showing significant ZR in much of these regions.

[metalicwx367]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The Pivotal UKMET “snowfall” maps are unfortunately typically very inaccurate because they count non-snow wintry precip as snow. The vast majority of this in S and SE GA as well as E SC and a large portion up to 100 miles inland and especially 50-75 miles inland is not snow because 850s on the run are clearly warmer than 0C. For example, the 8-9” showing at SAV, Statesboro, and CHS is very deceiving as most to all of this is ZR and IP. I wish that weren’t the case! So, the UK is showing significant ZR in much of these regions.

Yeah I was gonna say something is off with those snow maps. It's showing 6.3 inches here and 850s are between 3-6c and SFC temps are 33F-35F the entire event. UKMET is the warmest out of all the models atm.

A bit of a stretch here, but Monday night into Tuesday is starting to look a bit more interesting across SE GA before the main event moves in. An increasing number of models starting to show a round of precipitation moving into the region. 850s are nearly cold enough that the event may start out as snow. GFS shows this pretty well. Euro AI and GFS AI also. UKMET shows it but is way too warm. 

 

[WX FAN]

3 hours ago, digital snow said:

I would see you to your car but the parking lot is well lit.

It’s customary to say excuse me when you belch. 

[GaWx]

0Z Euro is historic run for wintry precip in N FL/S GA!

1. Qpf well over 1” much of far N FL

2. Snow (Kuchera): much more accurate than UK map…this is the real thing: almost all in 2-3” blue band as well as good portion of the two darkest gray bands (1-2”) would be heaviest in decades: Waycross would get 2.8”, which would be most since the ~3” they got in 12/1989; SVN (Hunter) would get 2.7” (most since 3.6” of 12/1989), JAX 0.1” (would be 1st measurable since 12/1989), and TLH would get 3.0”, which what would appear to be an all-time record breaking the 2.8” of Feb of 1958:

 

Sleet: 0.2” SVN; 0.9” at Brunswick meaning sleet and snow adding to 2.6” there, likely an all-time record; Waycross just N of sleet

 

ZR: ~125 mile long band of 1”+ ZR far N FL! 1.40” in JAX would needless to say be absolutely catastrophic and easily record breaking there and probably for all of FL. I just did some research and it appears that the heaviest ZR on record at JAX may be the 0.50” of 1/5/1879:

“January 4/5, 1879: At Jacksonville at 7 pm, sleet began, which turned to rain 90 minutes later. The freezing rain covered trees, shrubbery, and everything else outdoors by morning. The weight of the ice broke the limbs of many orange trees.”

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_in_Florida

**Edit: @pcbjrhome (Gainesville aka Hogtown) gets ~0.65” of ZR, unheard of!

 

@metalicwx367

@Awesomesauce81

@gtg947h

[dsaur]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

The Pivotal UKMET “snowfall” maps are unfortunately typically very inaccurate because they count non-snow wintry precip as snow. The vast majority of this in S and SE GA as well as E SC and a large portion up to 100 miles inland and especially 50-75 miles inland is not snow because 850s on the run are clearly warmer than 0C. For example, the 8-9” showing at SAV, Statesboro, and CHS is very deceiving as most to all of this is ZR and IP. I wish that weren’t the case! So, the UK is showing significant ZR in much of these regions.

Boo..back in the crapper again.  Sorry.

[suzook]

0z GFS still suppressing the storm. Southern ga gets snow though 

[HKY_WX]

Gfs has trend almost to the ggem evolution at 6z tonight. Need euro to hope on board for me to believe it completely 

[strongwxnc]

Gfs has trend almost to the ggem evolution at 6z tonight. Need euro to hope on board for me to believe it completely 

Nice jump for sure.


.

[gamecockinupstateSC]

[olafminesaw]

[WiseWeather]

Its so close to being a big dog… but its just yappin right now


.

[NorthHillsWx]

Need EURO onboard but nice seeing GFS coming home 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Need EURO onboard but nice seeing GFS coming home 

This is an outside the coast comment. If you’re on the coast you have to feel great at this point

[WiseWeather]

Is there potential for that low to eject sooner and just run up the coastline?? Ill give it 75 cents and a bottle of the finest cherry lemon sundrop.


.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

That 1045mb high pressure in Mississippi that was modeled by the GFS on the 18z run 1/15 has now trended to a 1040 in Iowa. That has allowed the precip shield to expand north. I look for this to continue. This a perfect spot climo wise for a SE winter storm. If the pressure drops to 1036mb or so in the coming model runs, it's game on.

[Tacoma]

3 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

That 1045mb high pressure in Mississippi that was modeled by the GFS on the 18z run 1/15 has now trended to a 1040 in Iowa. That has allowed the precip shield to expand north. I look for this to continue. This a perfect spot climo wise for a SE winter storm. If the pressure drops to 1036mb or so in the coming model runs, it's game on.

We hope this happens to get the precipitation shield a little more north and west.

[Tacoma]

The NW trend that started last night is probably not done with 4 days out, still lots of time.  

[Seminole]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

0Z Euro is historic run for wintry precip in N FL/S GA!

1. Qpf well over 1” much of far N FL

2. Snow (Kuchera): much more accurate than UK map…this is the real thing: almost all in 2-3” blue band as well as good portion of the two darkest gray bands (1-2”) would be heaviest in decades: Waycross would get 2.8”, which would be most since the ~3” they got in 12/1989; SVN (Hunter) would get 2.7” (most since 3.6” of 12/1989), JAX 0.1” (would be 1st measurable since 12/1989), and TLH would get 3.0”, which what would appear to be an all-time record breaking the 2.8” of Feb of 1958:

 

Sleet: 0.2” SVN; 0.9” at Brunswick meaning sleet and snow adding to 2.6” there, likely an all-time record; Waycross just N of sleet

 

ZR: ~125 mile long band of 1”+ ZR far N FL! 1.40” in JAX would needless to say be absolutely catastrophic and easily record breaking there and probably for all of FL. I just did some research and it appears that the heaviest ZR on record at JAX may be the 0.50” of 1/5/1879:

“January 4/5, 1879: At Jacksonville at 7 pm, sleet began, which turned to rain 90 minutes later. The freezing rain covered trees, shrubbery, and everything else outdoors by morning. The weight of the ice broke the limbs of many orange trees.”

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_in_Florida

**Edit: @pcbjrhome (Gainesville aka Hogtown) gets ~0.65” of ZR, unheard of!

 

@metalicwx367

@Awesomesauce81

@gtg947h

This would shut most of I-10 down in FL and parts of 1-75. I-95 in JAX would be affected also. 

[GunBlade]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I just checked. The wattage for my fridge/freezer is 1,800. So, now it appears this Anker PStation that’s 300W and peaks at 600 wouldn’t be nearly enough. Hmmmm.

 Getting more powerful power stations on Amazon would take 2 weeks (too late). Maybe I could find one at a brick and mortar store?

That can’t be right. A microwave is 1,000 watts and uses WAY more power than a fridge. 
 

Verify the fridge voltage and amps. That’s your wattage. For example, mine is 120v and 1.5 amps which means 180 watts. My fridge has a Keurig built into it and even that is only 1,200 watts. 
 

You should have a sticker inside your fridge like this. 

[BornAgain13]

6z GFS with a Big jump... Now anyone else looking for encouragement? The 6z CMC doesn't go all the way out but hit the animate button on this. Still cranks this thing up at the end 

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[StantonParkHoya]

 

love where we sit

[olafminesaw]

Definitely a tend towards hugging the coast. Could be one of those classic storms where Raleigh gets 6"+ and Greensboro gets an inch or two

[WXNewton]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Dig baby dig...

[BornAgain13]

6z GEFS also improved along with the OP.

[snowinnc]

13 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

 

love where we sit

Oh yeah. Let the NW trend continue!!!

[metalicwx367]

6Z Euro has big area of S GA getting an inch or more of FZRA w/ temps in the upper 20s.

 

[WXNewton]

Pretty big shift to NW with precip. 

 

 

[Tacoma]

I hope the precip shield keeps shifting to the north and west, we'll be in the game for some snow