Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[StantonParkHoya]

6 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Hour 150 Al Euro

 

 

Isn’t it ironic that our next gen, artificial intelligence models look like maps from 1980s IBM computers

[Tacoma]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

18z eps

Has the NW Trend begun

 

[ncforecaster89]

12 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

What a blast to be on the outer banks if this happened. Add 6” of snow to these photos and that would be an amazing site. 

I saw 8” on the Outer Banks in a middle January winter storm in 2018. Also, it was accompanied by thundersnow and 30 mph wind gusts at Kitty Hawk.  Nothing like that since on the Outer Banks.   

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

15 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

Has the NW Trend begun

 

It would appear that way ..... yes

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 12Z GEFS vs 12Z GEPS for SE GA 1/21-2:

- much larger suppression risk GEFS (~50%) vs only 5% GEPS

Waycross: 15 suppressed, 8 mainly SN/IP, 7 mainly ZR

Savannah: 16 suppressed, 4 mainly ZR, 10 mainly snow

 

12Z EPS for 1/21-2: doesn’t show sleet or ZR

-Waycross: 26 of 50 with snow (mean 1.1”)

-Savannah: 24 of 50 with snow (mean 1.65”)

@metallica470

Due to NW trend 12Z to 18Z:

Suppression risk % in relation to SE GA lowered on 18Z GEFS vs 12Z from 15-16 to 11 of 30 members.

 

Also, # of EPS members with snow rose from 12Z to 18Z

Sav: 26 to 36

Waycross: 24 to 31

@metallica470

[WX FAN]

17 hours ago, Met1985 said:

We are 7 days away from this event and yall think the models have this laid out already? Good luck with that. Again and Again we have seen major changes just 2 to 3 days before a storm hits.  Don't get sucked in or out at the long lead time.  

I used to have faith about a lot of the predictions that were posted here, but it’s becoming more clear that some people enjoy posting ridiculous things that are obviously not serious. 

[WiseWeather]

There is a storm in North Carolina…. They call it Brick Storm son…. And its been the ruin of a million poor boys… thank God that i am one.


.

[GaWx]

 I think I’m going to go ahead and order two Anker 521 Portable Power Stations to have in case of a bad icestorm:

https://www.anker.com/products/a1720?

 I figured two better than one in case it’s real bad/lengthy outage and can them in different rooms at same time. Cost each $160 on Amazon Prime. Can get them on Saturday if order soon. They are 256 Wh with 6 port Powerhouse, 300 watt (peak 600 watt), solar generator, 2 AC outlets (has car socket fwiw). Hopefully this would be powerful enough to power my fridge a few hours a day, a space heater, my cell phone, etc. I figure having two would allow me to power the fridge on one and I could have the other in my bedroom for space heater, cell, etc. Hopefully im thinking this through correctly. I don’t fully know what I’m doing to be honest, but reading the much appreciated advice here and elsewhere tells me this would hopefully do what I’d need. And I could always return one or both within 30 days if I don’t use them.

@dsaur

@WarmNoseHater

@SnowDawg

Edit: I may also buy extra bags of ice just in case to help keep things cold. Also, with it cold outside, I’d be able to put some things outside I suppose if need be while the cold hangs on.

 

[dsaur]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I think I’m going to go ahead and order two Anker 521 Portable Power Stations to have in case of a bad icestorm:

https://www.anker.com/products/a1720?

 I figured two better than one in case it’s real bad/lengthy outage and can them in different rooms at same time. Cost each $160 on Amazon Prime. Can get them on Saturday if order soon. They are 256 Wh with 6 port Powerhouse, 300 watt (peak 600 watt), solar generator, 2 AC outlets (has car socket fwiw). Hopefully this would be powerful enough to power my fridge a few hours a day, a space heater, my cell phone, etc. I figure having two would allow me to power the fridge on one and I could have the other in my bedroom for space heater, cell, etc. Hopefully im thinking this through correctly. I don’t fully know what I’m doing to be honest, but reading the much appreciated advice here and elsewhere tells me this would hopefully do what I’d need. And I could always return one or both within 30 days if I don’t use them. I have anker batt packs and they are great.  Had them for years and still work great.

@dsaur

@WarmNoseHater

@SnowDawg

 

 

I asked an electrician friend and he thinks 300 might not be enough to turn on the fridge. Like a well pump it takes an initial surge to spin the thing up...figuratively.  So think about at least a 500 for one, or better call the manufacturer and ask what watt you need for a fridge. Well, just just saw the peak 600 so maybe that will do it, but check with the maker before you buy, just in case.

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, dsaur said:

I asked an electrician friend and he thinks 300 might not be enough to turn on the fridge. Like a well pump it takes an initial surge to spin the thing up...figuratively.  So think about at least a 500 for one, or better call the manufacturer and ask what watt you need for a fridge. Well, just just saw the peak 600 so maybe that will do it, but check with the maker before you buy, just in case.

 I just checked. The wattage for my fridge/freezer is 1,800. So, now it appears this Anker PStation that’s 300W and peaks at 600 wouldn’t be nearly enough. Hmmmm.

 Getting more powerful power stations on Amazon would take 2 weeks (too late). Maybe I could find one at a brick and mortar store?

[sarcean]

1 hour ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Hour 150 Al Euro

 

 

Honest question does the "AI Euro" have any validation scores yet? If it didnt have rh European model attached would we pay it any attention?

[digital snow]

1 hour ago, WX FAN said:

I used to have faith about a lot of the predictions that were posted here, but it’s becoming more clear that some people enjoy posting ridiculous things that are obviously not serious. 

I would see you to your car but the parking lot is well lit.

[Regan]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I just checked. The wattage for my fridge/freezer is 1,800. So, now it appears this Anker PStation that’s 300W and peaks at 600 wouldn’t be nearly enough. Hmmmm.

Yeah those banks and jumpers won’t do big jobs. That being said, they are invaluable to have with severe weather. Particularly in hurricanes and ice storms etc for powering phones etc. We always charge our jumpers and pocket banks up before anything predictable. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, Regan said:

Yeah those banks and jumpers won’t do big jobs. That being said, they are invaluable to have with severe weather. Particularly in hurricanes and ice storms etc for powering phones etc. We always charge our jumpers and pocket banks up before anything predictable. 

So, I’ll forget trying to keep my fridge powered up. I’m probably instead going to get a whole bunch of bags of ice. I can put some in my freezer and others in some very large coolers that I have. Maybe that would keep things frozen longer. I still may get two of these Anker 300W Power Stations, regardless, so I’d have more reserve and so I can have them in two different rooms simultaneously to use for space heater, cellphone and maybe a TV?

[wncsnow]

Icon is most suppressed its been so far. 

[Thrasher Fan]

0z ICON nearly identical to 18z out to 108

[StantonParkHoya]

It ain’t iconic this run

[BornAgain13]

Oz ICON says I'm De-pressed

[BornAgain13]

Outside of Louisiana, theirs barely anything on the Icon.

[Brick Tamland]

And down goes the ICON.

[CaryWx]

crushed and splattered like a cockroach in the garage

[StantonParkHoya]

It’s too bad because the Icon was Mr. Vibes last storm

[cbmclean]

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It’s too bad because the Icon was Mr. Vibes last storm

Wasn't it was as away SE though?

[BornAgain13]

GFS looked better early on but then got squashed. Light accumulations for the coast of SC and GA and NC

[Brick Tamland]

GFS has a storm for the coast. Actually better than the ICON this run.

[PackGrad05]

Trend has definitely been suppression and coastal system.  This seems to be what the TV mets are leaning toward as well.  Really good agreement on all the models as well.  
Still time for adjustments but we are starting to narrow down on primary threats.

[StantonParkHoya]

[Thrasher Fan]

The GFS has trended NW with every run today. I'd expect that to continue as we go into the weekend.

[BornAgain13]

It would not have taken much for that GFS run to of been bigger ... It has trended NW each of the last few runs. Will see if that continues in the morning .