Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[SnowDawg]

I am not betting against the EPS at this range. I am expecting dry weather for N GA, Upstate, and W NC. Hopefully we can hold on to the CAD long enough for the late week chance.

[Tacoma]

8 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Cold til February 

https://x.com/snewxcenter/status/1879958778726216127?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

The thing is we're told that there is never enough cold air to get snow then when we do get cold for snow there is the problem of suppression,  mercy we can't win for losing.  I guess our only hope is the old NW Trend of which we can't give up on yet.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

2 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

The thing is we're told that there is never enough cold air to get snow then when we do get cold for snow there is the problem of suppression,  mercy we can't win for losing.  

True. I think interior NC and VA are more likely to cash in when the cold is moderate and not historic because extreme cold tends to foster suppression.

[CentralNC]

RAH extended

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 415 PM Thursday...

On Saturday morning a low pressure system just off the FL/GA coast
will continue to deepen through the day as it skirts off the Mid-
Atlantic coastal waters. A strong cold front stretching across much
of the Mississippi Valley will be approaching the Mid-Atlantic
region bringing a chance of rain through much of the day Saturday.
While the moisture and rain from the coastal low will impact areas
in the Coastal Plain and portions of the Sandhills, the approaching
front will bring rain to the western portions of the region. For
much of the day Saturday expect scattered to numerous periods of
rain with perhaps a lull Saturday evening for portions of the
Piedmont. As the front pushes through the region late Saturday night
early Sunday morning the rush of colder dry air will filter in
behind. As the precip is pushed out early Sunday morning, a rain
snow mixture beginning along the VA/NC border could occur. By the
end of the event, Sunday afternoon the rain/snow mix line could
expand southward along and north of US-64. After the sunsets temps
will continue to drop increasing chances fro the change over to snow
as the precip moves out of the region late Sunday evening. Best
chance for all snow will be north of the Triangle,but west of I95,
with the rain/snow mix continuing for much of the northern coastal
plain region.

Cold arctic high pressure will build in with the coldest
temperatures of the season Sunday night temperatures after the
precip moves out. Sunday night temperatures will quickly drop into
the 20s for much of the region by midnight and wide spread teens
across the Piedmont region for the lows Monday morning. While these
low temperatures are dangerous, wind chills in the single digits are
also expected. The Sandhills and portions of the Coastal Plain
regions will see temps fall into the low 20s Sunday night with wind
chills in the low/mid teens. Cold temperatures will continue for at
least the next 72 hours in most areas. For example areas around
Raleigh will see around 86 hours of temperatures below freezing from
Sunday night to Thursday afternoon. Cold dry air will be in place
Monday and much of Tuesday with highs in the mid 20s NW to near 30
SE. Lows will be in the low teens to near 20 in most areas. Again
wind chills will be in the single digits for Monday and Tuesday
mornings.

Tuesday afternoon another weather system is expected to move into
the region. While models are still inconsistent with the track of
the parent low that would fuel the precip and p-type, ensembles have
shown there might be enough moisture in the atmosphere to produce
some measurable snow Tuesday afternoon and overnight. The cold
temperatures are in place, but the big question will be will there
be enough moisture along side the cold air. Will keep a close watch
on the developing low and expected track over the next couple days.

[NorthHillsWx]

Icon looks much more suppressed than 12z

[HKY_WX]

After getting a look at the 12z Euro AI, there's a bit of encouragement. Just need to get this wave out west to continue digging southwest. That will sharpen up the trough and get that overrunning moisture/firehose pointed more NNE instead of ENE. The margin on this one is very small and it wouldn't take much to be back in the game.

The models giveth and the models taketh away.... But the models do sometimes giveth back...

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Icon looks much more suppressed than 12z

Hard to tell. Timing has really slowed down today.

[BornAgain13]

Kind of hard to really say where that run of the icon was going

[olafminesaw]

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Kind of hard to really say where that run of the icon was going

Hard to say. But certainly more suppressed. If I had to guess maybe something like the Euro

[olafminesaw]

Small improvements I think through hours 102. Nothing definitive yet, but precip starting to develope over SE texas

[olafminesaw]

Iight snow breaking out over Louisiana at 114, definite improvement, should be a decent run for the coast 

[olafminesaw]

Still pretty squashed but light snow over the FL panhandle 

[BornAgain13]

Still suppressed but better

[StantonParkHoya]

Definitely an improvement

 

Congrats Wilmington!

[HKY_WX]

ILM jackpot lol.   

[StantonParkHoya]

[BornAgain13]

Late week system still there on the GFS. And it's still a mess of ice and rain

[Brick Tamland]

Wednesday storm barely off shore on the GFS and another system coming in Friday.

[Brick Tamland]

Second system looks like mostly rain. I think the GFS is still the.only one with two systems next week. The first one looked like it was a little bit further west than the last run. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Gfs has trended west pretty far last few runs (after it revived the storm)

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Second system looks like mostly rain. I think the GFS is still the.only one with two systems next week. The first one looked like it was a little bit further west than the last run. 

Brick — you can stop looking at the second one. I need you focused on reeling in the Brickstorm

[eyewall]

 

Jacksonville in play to exceed Raleigh's season snow total to date

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Brick — you can stop looking at the second one. I need you focused on reeling in the Brickstorm

[PennyForYourThoughts]

10 day forecast for Pensacola, Fla says snow/ice during the day tuesday...mostly snow overnight.   1 to 3 inches.    Will believe it when I see it.  Saw a couple inches here in the late 70s...repeat?  We will see. 

[BooneWX]

I wouldn’t be fretting east of Greensboro and Charlotte. Just imo! I think the precip field ends up being more expansive. 

[HWY316wx]

11 minutes ago, PennyForYourThoughts said:

10 day forecast for Pensacola, Fla says snow/ice during the day tuesday...mostly snow overnight.   1 to 3 inches.    Will believe it when I see it.  Saw a couple inches here in the late 70s...repeat?  We will see. 

I am pulling for you guys and South GA and South S. Carolina!  Would be epic to see measurable snow that far south!  Euro had 6-7" in places in Florida!

[franklin NCwx]

16 minutes ago, PennyForYourThoughts said:

10 day forecast for Pensacola, Fla says snow/ice during the day tuesday...mostly snow overnight.   1 to 3 inches.    Will believe it when I see it.  Saw a couple inches here in the late 70s...repeat?  We will see. 

That would be awesome for them!

[StantonParkHoya]

18z GEFS improved for ENC but worse west of 95

[NC_hailstorm]

Just by looking at the shape of the shortwave in the Pacific northwest,it looks like it's getting pressed more to the southwest by the polar vortex.The Canadian being the furthest pressed southwest and producing the biggest storm right now.

Just an observation.