Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, suzook said:

Why are people jumping off a cliff already? We are back and forth. It's not like the storm has completely vaporized. Hang in there. Plenty of time for all of us

I am by no means cliff diving. That would typically include an emotionally charged rant where I’m screaming at the sky. I’ve seen enough on the models to say that the higher likelihood is a northern stream dominated system which will keep some of us out of the game. Trust me, I’ll be here like the weather sicko I am, rooting for @GaWxand others. Would I love to see a board wide hit? Absolutely. But unless we get more involvement from the Baja low and maintain the track (hard to do both) - no board wide win is happening. 

[Brick Tamland]

Keep going back to the Christmas 2010 storm here. That looked like it was going out to sea on all the models until about 48 hours out.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BornAgain13]

Brad Panovich is leaning more south for the wintry weather it seems but he did say in his video a NW trend is still possible 

[GaWx]

 12Z GEFS vs 12Z GEPS for SE GA 1/21-2:

- much larger suppression risk GEFS (~50%) vs only 5% GEPS

Waycross: 15 suppressed, 8 mainly SN/IP, 7 mainly ZR

Savannah: 16 suppressed, 4 mainly ZR, 10 mainly snow

 

12Z EPS for 1/21-2: doesn’t show sleet or ZR

-Waycross: 26 of 50 with snow (mean 1.1”)

-Savannah: 24 of 50 with snow (mean 1.65”)

@metallica470

[MHCWEATHER]

41 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I’ll pick you up for our chase to Emerald Isle next Tuesday 

Gotta a cottage off of Coast Guard Rd. Snow cream and spiced rum at my place .  
 

Might be a Carteret County special, a la ‘80 & ‘89.

[Mowfishin]

Right now being in Mcclellanville sc i feel like I may be in a sweet spot for snow. 

 

Never thought I would say that 

[Brick Tamland]

Canadian ensemble mean.

[gopack42]

2 minutes ago, MHCWEATHER said:

Gotta a cottage off of Coast Guard Rd. Snow cream and spiced rum at my place .  
 

Might be a Carteret County special, a la ‘80 & ‘89.

I just moved from Emerald Isle to Beech Mountain.  I never thought I'd be in a position where you'd get more than me after I moved.  My parents still live in EI, so maybe I ought to make the trip back!

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Ocala ice storm!?

[snowinnc]

While I’m happy for the coastal folks, I swear they have gotten more snow than RDU the last few years. I’m beginning to think those of us who live in RDU have done something to really annoy the snow gods. If Savannah, Charleston, and Wilmington get more snow than us again, we might just need to throw in the towel on winter. So frustrating.

[GaWx]

 With ATL already having had one major winter storm, I was thinking about how often they have had two or more within the same winter. Here are the ones per my files:

-1/2000: 2 ZR 7 days apart

-2/1979: ZR followed by 4.2” sleet 11 days later

-1/1962: snow followed by ZR 9 days later

-3/1960: ZR followed by another ZR 7 days later followed by snow 2 days later

-1/1940: ZR followed by snow 16 days later

-12/1935-1/1936: 2 ZRs 4 days apart followed by snow 28 days later

-12/1917-1/1918: snow/sleet followed by ZR 39 days later

-2/1905: 2 ZRs 3 days apart

-2/1895: 2 snows 4 days apart

-1/1885-2/1885: sleet/ZR followed by snow 20 days later

———————

 

Summary based on the above ATL history:

 

-Multiple major winter storms occurred during 10 winters of the last ~145 or once every 15 on average…maybe more often than one might think

 

-We’re currently in the longest period between these multiples as it has been 24 winters. Previous longest was 21 winters (1979 to 2000)

 

-Days apart between the multiples: 2, 3, 4, 4, 7, 7, 9, 11, 16, 20, 28, 39

 

-If ATL were to have a major starting on 1/21, it would be 11 days after the prior one

[MHCWEATHER]

5 minutes ago, gopack42 said:

I just moved from Emerald Isle to Beech Mountain.  I never thought I'd be in a position where you'd get more than me after I moved.  My parents still live in EI, so maybe I ought to make the trip back!

That’s good your folks are still there. We live in Raleigh, but I might be storm chasing next week 

[wxfool]

7 minutes ago, MHCWEATHER said:

Gotta a cottage off of Coast Guard Rd. Snow cream and spiced rum at my place .  
 

Might be a Carteret County special, a la ‘80 & ‘89.

Recently moved back to Cape Carteret. I was living in Atlantic Beach for the '80 storm as a kid. Never thought this would potentially happen again. Come on down! Drinks are on me!

[StantonParkHoya]

There was a storm in maybe 2010 or 2011 where it snowed like 8 inches in Atlantic Beach and nothing in Havelock

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

There was a storm in maybe 2010 or 2011 where it snowed like 8 inches in Atlantic Beach and nothing in Havelock

 

[metalicwx367]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 12Z GEFS vs 12Z GEPS for SE GA 1/21-2:

- much larger suppression risk GEFS (~50%) vs only 5% GEPS

Waycross: 15 suppressed, 8 mainly SN/IP, 7 mainly ZR

Savannah: 16 suppressed, 4 mainly ZR, 10 mainly snow

 

12Z EPS for 1/21-2: doesn’t show sleet or ZR

-Waycross: 26 of 50 with snow (mean 1.1”)

-Savannah: 24 of 50 with snow (mean 1.65”)

@metallica470

12Z GFS and GEFS though looked like an improvement over the prior two runs. 

Honestly when I decided to take vacation in January to come back home I did not think I would be tracking a potentially significant winter weather threat in this area. lol. I wasn't here for the event in January 2018 (based in Hawaii at the time).

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, snowinnc said:

While I’m happy for the coastal folks, I swear they have gotten more snow than RDU the last few years. I’m beginning to think those of us who live in RDU have done something to really annoy the snow gods. If Savannah, Charleston, and Wilmington get more snow than us again, we might just need to throw in the towel on winter. So frustrating.

-SAV hasn’t had even a trace of wintry precip in 7 years

-SAV has had more snow than RDU only twice in the last 138 winters (1.4% of the winters): 

1. 1985-6: RDU 0.9”; SAV 1.4”

2. 1989-90: RDU 2.7”; SAV 3.6”

-So, even if SAV were to get more snow than RDU (highly iffy as of this early) for the upcoming threat, the odds would be high that RDU would overtake them by winter’s end

[Tony Sisk]

21 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Canadian ensemble mean.

Still pretty pumped at the possibility of entire southern states having snow cover. That would be awesome!

[StantonParkHoya]

It’s limited but UKMET ensembles look pretty solid best I can tell

So did ICON ensembles

[HKY_WX]

Some recent model performance. ACC (Model vs Reality/Reanalysis) at day 5 for 500mb.

ECMWF = 1

CMC = 2

UKMET = 3

GFS = Distant 4th

 

[Tacoma]

Hey fellas we're still 5/6 days out.  There is going to be a lot of back and forth on these models.  

[ncjoaquin]

Don't look to GSP to increase your hope:

Key Messages:

1) Breezy NW Winds Continue through Monday, Mainly Across the
Mountains

2) Trending Drier Next Week

3) An Arctic Airmass Will Bring Very Cold Temperatures and Dangerous
Wind Chills Next Week, Especially Across the Mountains

Outside of the potential for some lingering NW flow snow showers
along the NC/TN border Sunday night into early Monday morning.
Breezy NW winds will continue through Monday before gradually
tapering off Monday night. Models have been trending drier regarding
any precip chances through Thursday. However, models are still
remain inconsistent run to run so confidence on any potential for
snow remains very low. Thus, capped PoPs to slight chance
along/south of I-85 Tuesday into Tuesday night for now and lowered
them compared to the previous update based on the latest model
guidance. Outside of the Canadian, the GFS and ECMWF agree that dry
conditions will linger through Thursday

[Tony Sisk]

1 minute ago, ncjoaquin said:

Don't look to GSP to increase your hope:

Key Messages:

1) Breezy NW Winds Continue through Monday, Mainly Across the
Mountains

2) Trending Drier Next Week

3) An Arctic Airmass Will Bring Very Cold Temperatures and Dangerous
Wind Chills Next Week, Especially Across the Mountains

Outside of the potential for some lingering NW flow snow showers
along the NC/TN border Sunday night into early Monday morning.
Breezy NW winds will continue through Monday before gradually
tapering off Monday night. Models have been trending drier regarding
any precip chances through Thursday. However, models are still
remain inconsistent run to run so confidence on any potential for
snow remains very low. Thus, capped PoPs to slight chance
along/south of I-85 Tuesday into Tuesday night for now and lowered
them compared to the previous update based on the latest model
guidance. Outside of the Canadian, the GFS and ECMWF agree that dry
conditions will linger through Thursday

Wonder if GSP = NAM ?

[HKY_WX]

More recent verification score for Day 5 SLP. 00z Euro Ens mean is king apparently.

00z Euro Ens mean: 8.47	8.5
00z Euro Control	8.3
12z GFS Ens Mean	8.2
12z GFS Control	8.0
00z GFS Ens Mean	7.9
00z Ukmet	7.9
00z GFS Control	7.5
00z Canadian	7.3

 

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[Tacoma]

Trends have gone against us before just to trend back to our favor.  GSP has had to change they're tune before.  

[CentralNC]

[CaryWx]

19 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

More recent verification score for Day 5 SLP. 00z Euro Ens mean is king apparently.

00z Euro Ens mean: 8.47	8.5
00z Euro Control	8.3
12z GFS Ens Mean	8.2
12z GFS Control	8.0
00z GFS Ens Mean	7.9
00z Ukmet	7.9
00z GFS Control	7.5
00z Canadian	7.3

 

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Sounds like we need to see what the next 0z eps has for best look forward at 5days on the 21st/22nd storm

[gamecockinupstateSC]

CAE discussion and ATL discussion 

 very strong cold front arrives late Sunday as the lingering
surface low lifts northeast.

- Temps 15-25 degrees below average expected Monday through Thursday.

- Wintry precip chances continue for mid-week, but confidence
remains low.


The aforementioned surface low will lift northeast Sunday, followed
by the long discussed cold front. So there will not likely be
much of a diurnal swing Sunday as strong advection arrives
during the day. For Monday and Tuesday, the broad trough of the
Arctic airmass will settle into the central and eastern US. EC
and NAEFS are in excellent agreement over the general nature of
the initial airmass with highly anomalous cold, but not record
setting; temps 15-25 degrees below average yield highs in the
~30`s or low 40`s, along with overnight lows in the teens or low
20`. EC EFI continues to show EFI values between 0.9 and 0.95
Monday and Tuesday, but SoT is very low; a classic high
confidence in well below average, but not extreme temps, signal.
Regardless, the LREF output suggests we will approach or exceed
Cold Weather Advisory criteria at some point next week, so stay
aware of that potential new product issuance. Frozen pipes and
related impacts are becoming more likely during the mid- week
period as high temps will only make it above freezing for a few
hours each day.

Late Tuesday and into Wednesday is when the wintry precip potential
starts to enter the picture. Based on the last handful of guidance
suites, there is only a little more clarity on the possibility of
winter weather next week. Based on extent of the cold airmass and
associated surface high pressure, a suppressed low track
solution looks more and more likely with any wintry precip
chances actually increasing the further south you go in the
Midlands and CSRA. GEFS, and ECE to a lesser extent, have
trended towards this solution over the past several runs with
probabilities of 1" of snow in the central and northern
Midlands decreasing notably as the surface high settles into the
TN Valley. The GEFS and deterministic GFS remain the most
suppressed, with little-no precip into the forecast area. The
Canadian and at its ensemble are the other end of the spectrum,
with a northern GoM oriented storm track and significantly more
moisture overrun into eastern GA and SC; the EC and its
ensemble looks to be directly in the middle of these two
solutions over the last fews suites. The key feature of the
forecast is how the low level cold air and surface high pressure
is handled and how far southeast it can reach. How this high
pressure progresses is a result of extremely strong confluence
along the western flank of the trough main trough. And how this
confluence progresses is a result of a cutoff low in the Pacific
and its interaction with the main trough. A faster phase of
this cutoff drags the surface high further west, and a slower
phase causes the opposite. Unfortunately with chaotic nature of
cutoffs sitting under ridge axes, it will take several more days
to get consistent model guidance on this event. But generally,
the GFS-EC solution of a slower decay of the cutoff-ridge
pattern in the Pacific is more likely given typical model biases
in blocking patterns.

Overall, the forecast hinges on a notorious synoptic scale
interaction. But beyond that the general pattern is favorable
with a suppressed GoM storm track solution looking likely.
Whether that yields snow- wintry precip into the Midlands and
CSRA is highly uncertain at this time.

 

ATL

Early next week, the forecast area becomes situated near the base of
a very broad 500mb trough. At the surface, latest global ensembles
are painting a strong arctic surface high sliding south into the
north-central CONUS by early next week. Energy rotating through the
base of the broad trough will act to reinforce the colder air which
looks to stick around through at least mid week next week. At the
time of this writing, we`re looking at temperatures Monday and
Tuesday 20 to 25 degrees below normal! Early morning temperatures
Monday through Wednesday are forecast to be in the teens to low 20s
and forecast daytime temperatures ranging from the mid 20s to mid
30s. Many locations (a line north of LaGrange to Griffin to Athens)
will struggle to rise above freezing. Breezy winds will not help the
situation at all keeping wind chills (aka the `feels like`
temperature) in the teens to single digit values Monday through
Wednesday. We are in the midst of winter and now is the time to prep
for the cold! Pipes, plants, pets and people!

Finally, the thing on everyone`s mind -- will another winter storm
impact portions of North and Central Georgia? Right now a few things
we can say...

-Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance is still highly
inconsistent with the bulk of the difference in outcomes depending
on the 500mb pattern. As we know here in the south, that placement
of upper level features as well as moisture can make or break a
winter wx forecast and is really what leads to the difficulties
surrounding it.

-Regardless of winter precip -- VERY cold and frigid temperatures
are highly likely next week. Please prepare now.

The pieces of this potential winter weather puzzle will continue to
come together in the coming days. So stay tuned for details
including exactly what, where, and how much...

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Cold til February 

https://x.com/snewxcenter/status/1879958778726216127?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g