Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[BornAgain13]

Moderate to Heavy Snow in NC/VA starting around HR 200

[BooneWX]

Big snowstorm for NC, big ice storm for SC. 
 

It’s one OP run but man did that feel good to look at.

[BornAgain13]

Major ICE storm taken verbatim for SC, 6-10" Snow Storm for northern NC into VA taken verbatim....

Not sure what was different in the atmosphere compared to previous GFS runs... Someone more professional can answer that. Is it right? Probably not but nice to look at

[franklin NCwx]

All about timing and if/when it phases 

[BornAgain13]

It looked like the cold relaxed somewhat enough to make it not suppressed 

[Met1985]

Big dog for the 10th!

[SnowDawg]

Love the look, think if it were to come to pass it'd be more widespread snow/sleet and not as much ice as it was showing but far too early to sweat p-types at this point. Hopefully we start to see some ensemble convergence on the handling of the energy in the SW. 

[JoshM]

this one is at least believable... look at that I-85 line!

 

[StantonParkHoya]

I mean lol… the models have no damn idea. Going from cold and suppressed to mixing issues…. 

[StantonParkHoya]

3 hours ago, lilj4425 said:

Still believe global warming is fake? Looking more and more likely of four years with no snow as this Winter is looking abysmal. 

Man, while I’m not disagreeing on the whole, the past four years comes down more to our ability to suck than a poor background state. 

[suzook]

LMFAO. I told everyone we would all be sucked back in. We seriously have issues.

[BooneWX]

One of the big differences with this run is the ridge out west. It’s rising towards Alaska now, not tilting as hard towards the Rockies.

[StantonParkHoya]

Not sure if anyone else posted but the 12z EuroAI showed a good Deep South / Coastal NC snow

[lilj4425]

25 minutes ago, suzook said:

LMFAO. I told everyone we would all be sucked back in. We seriously have issues.

It’s like those bug zapper machines and we’re the bugs. 

[GaWx]

18Z GFS precip types for 1/10-11:

 

qpf:

 

ATL to CAE: mix with mainly ZR (~0.5-0.7”) and ~1” snow/IP

[eyewall]

[snowmaker13]

run to run change for the 10th system

 

[NC_hailstorm]

A phase or a partial at 162 on the 18z GFS,,this can get a little better with some tweaks.

[StantonParkHoya]

9 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

A phase or a partial at 162 on the 18z GFS,,this can get a little better with some tweaks.

We’ve seen almost top-end from 12z yesterday. That was a phase. Really only way to top it would be a triple — which, was kind of not that impossible yesterday.

[BooneWX]

EPS looks like it wants to eject our low from its vacation in Cabo

[wake4est]

GFS pulled me back in

[BooneWX]

Euro AI is not only a storm, it’s a monster Miller A.

[suzook]

1 hour ago, wake4est said:

GFS pulled me back in

Yup, tip is back in. Blue balls the last week watching the models.

[NorthHillsWx]

I’m out still. GFS is terrible. Ensembles do not agree 

[StantonParkHoya]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m out still. GFS is terrible. Ensembles do not agree 

QPF did double for C/ENC between 12z and 18z means

[Upstate Tiger]

18 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m out still. GFS is terrible. Ensembles do not agree 

Me too!  I’m done!

Can someone call me at 11 so I can watch the 0z GFS?

[NC_hailstorm]

28 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Euro AI is not only a storm, it’s a monster Miller A.

Now you're cookin with hot grease lol,18z tonight full phase.

 

 

[BooneWX]

We’ll know early on the runs at 0Z if we’re on the right path or not. I wouldn’t fret what the surface depiction is. Our trough at 12z was pointed towards Montana and in the 18z runs, it’s climbing towards Seattle. That subtle shift kept the energy from going SW and let it get picked up by our trough.

[SnowDawg]

31 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

We’ll know early on the runs at 0Z if we’re on the right path or not. I wouldn’t fret what the surface depiction is. Our trough at 12z was pointed towards Montana and in the 18z runs, it’s climbing towards Seattle. That subtle shift kept the energy from going SW and let it get picked up by our trough.

 Taller ridge also makes the northern stream energy dig harder, making a phase more likely. Normally I would say this could quickly trend to too much of a good thing and it could end up wanting to cut, but the blocking and 50/50 confluence over the top should largely prevent that.

[BooneWX]

A thing of beauty


.