Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[NorthHillsWx]

49 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

We are 7 days away from this event and yall think the models have this laid out already? Good luck with that. Again and Again we have seen major changes just 2 to 3 days before a storm hits.  Don't get sucked in or out at the long lead time.  

7 days? More like 5 

[WiseWeather]

HOLY.


.

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS doesn’t even show wave 1 this run 

[WiseWeather]

That was a mess.


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[NorthHillsWx]

GFS has lost the first storm. Second storm is a mixed bag to rain for most. Joy

[NorthHillsWx]

We’ve reached a crossroads with the models. The 21-22nd system is our snow chance. The second system is charging into a stale retreating airmsss and will not work for most outside the mountains. GFS isn’t even suppressed, it hangs the energy back up and doesn’t even have a storm. If that happens, there’s no NW trend to root for, this is DOA. Better hope other models are right because the GFS is going the wrong way in a hurry 

[olafminesaw]

12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We’ve reached a crossroads with the models. The 21-22nd system is our snow chance. The second system is charging into a stale retreating airmsss and will not work for most outside the mountains. GFS isn’t even suppressed, it hangs the energy back up and doesn’t even have a storm. If that happens, there’s no NW trend to root for, this is DOA. Better hope other models are right because the GFS is going the wrong way in a hurry 

Did the Euro take a step towards the GFS in terms of holding back the energy, or is it simply suppressed and so we kind of have three scenarios?

[NorthHillsWx]

10 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Did the Euro take a step towards the GFS in terms of holding back the energy, or is it simply suppressed and so we kind of have three scenarios?

Euro had the storm but was suppressed. EPS actually very good. GFS only model without the storm. GEFS better than Op but ticked down for most

[metalicwx367]

14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Euro had the storm but was suppressed. EPS actually very good. GFS only model without the storm. GEFS better than Op but ticked down for most

Increasing number of ensemble members no longer showing the first wave. There are still some big hits in there. 

 

[BornAgain13]

In other news, Sunday Night continues to look more interesting up this way... 6z Euro and GFS both trended better with that.

[Brick Tamland]

UK and CMC have been consistent. GFS has been all over the place lately, and the op doesn't match the ensembles. Euro op run wasn't as good as the last one, but the enaembles actually increased a little compared to the previous run. Still a lot to iron out.