Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[wncsnow]

Wave 2 is gonna be super amped. Probably rain for most. This would be the worst case scenario 

[WXNewton]

Canadian looks like it's going to be coming more amped than 12z for first wave. Definitely way different look than GFS. Out to hr 132, snow breaking out in TX,AR, Ok

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, WXNewton said:

Canadian looks like it's going to be coming more amped than 12z for first wave. Definitely way different look than GFS. Out to hr 132, snow breaking out in TX,AR, Ok

It's less amped than 12Z.

[wncsnow]

Just now, wncsnow said:

It's less amped than 12Z.

And 12Z was less than 00z last night 

[WXNewton]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

It's less amped than 12Z.

Yeah it is a little bit, wave seems a little flatter for sure, definitely better than GFS, I mean worlds apart really. Still looks like it's going to be a decent hit.

[btownheel]

Actually it’s a fantastic spot

Agree. People wigging about suppression at this range baffle me. Y’all new here? Climo wins in these setups about 9.5/10 times, and climo says look for a NW trend.


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[WXNewton]

Canadian shifting heavier totals towards the south and east. Really lines up better with where Euro ens. and GFS Ens. have been showing heavier amounts. 

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, btownheel said:

Agree. People wigging about suppression at this range baffle me. Y’all new here? Climo wins in these setups about 9.5/10 times, and climo says look for a NW trend.


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We don't get air from Siberia every winter. Suppression is definitely on the table and a NW trend isn't inevitable this time. 

[btownheel]

We don't get air from Siberia every winter. Suppression is definitely on the table and a NW trend isn't inevitable this time. 

Nothing’s inevitable, but I’ll place my bet and be comfortable with it.


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[WXNewton]

10 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

We don't get air from Siberia every winter. Suppression is definitely on the table and a NW trend isn't inevitable this time. 

Agreed, I think we are going to see this storm evolve and line up very closely to where ensembles have been showing the heaviest all along. I am betting the whole state gets in the game but heavier totals seem to be aligning from Central to Eastern NC. Also it seems like moisture can be more expansive on real time radar than compared to the models. I am hoping everyone scores, but at the same time there might be a nasty cutoff line that a few of us have to face.

[WXNewton]

GFS Ens are already showing way more moisture and accumulations in TX vs the OP run, so it looks like once again ensembles will not be supporting the OP solution.

[WXNewton]

GFS Ens. ends up a little more sheared out than 18z and overall not as good. That was a step in the wrong direction. 

 

[WXNewton]

UK was a late bloomer, but it has some hefty totals for central and ENC, Coastal SC and GA

 

[snowmaker13]

Look away from the euro snow lovers! 

[wncsnow]

Better start trending the other way soon. We all know what's after this cold snap.

[lilj4425]

15 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

Look away from the euro snow lovers! 

Is that a good thing or a bad thing? Is it like the GFS? 

[WXNewton]

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

Is that a good thing or a bad thing? Is it like the GFS? 

Bad

[lilj4425]

8 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Bad

Oh good. I was getting worried it might snow here. Whew. 

[dsaur]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

Tony, I’ve been able to find only two other instances with at least about that much here: late Jan of 1922 (predecessor storm to tragic Knickerbocker Theatre storm in DC) and late Feb of 1914 (that one also had a decent amount of sleet). Early Jan of 2018 had a good bit but less than half that and thus limited outages. So, yes climo says not impossible but heck no unless we get a 100 year storm.

Glad you have that going for you.  It probably won't be so suppressed, or the temps so perfectly set for zr through out.  As depicted that's a lot of zr, and it takes some pretty perfect confluences to pull that off start to finish. I've only seen two that were massive and zr the whole time.  The rest went back and forth between p types.  73 and one here in the 80's.  No power for 10 days both times, all the rest just out a few days, or less.  So it's really hard to do it like the maps are showing. Temps are rarely that rock steady at the right places in the column for a whole storm.

[GaWx]

44 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

Look away from the euro snow lovers! 

0Z Euro snow: one of jackpot winners is believe it or not Gainesville to Jacksonville!

 

@pcbjr

[WX FAN]

2 hours ago, WXNewton said:

Canadian shifting heavier totals towards the south and east. Really lines up better with where Euro ens. and GFS Ens. have been showing heavier amounts. 

Is this a joke? The high predicted for that day here is 39. The next day is low 40’s.

[dsaur]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Because the icestorm threat here is still persisting, I’d like to be prepared just in case. I don’t have a generator and don’t plan to buy a portable at the last minute (if I even can). What other measures could I take? Is there something I can get just to power my fridge? What about something like a “portable power station”? Would they be very helpful? I see that Amazon has them and I can’t get them fast. Can I plug my fridge into that?

 Also, for recharging my phone, what about something like that or instead maybe something less powerful like a small charging hub? If I got that would it help to get several instead of just one in case the power were to be out for days? I could always return extra ones I don’t use within 30 days I believe.

 Any advice would be appreciated!

 

 

A 20,000 mah or higher battery pack for the phone.  I've got 4 lifepo4 200 watt solar batteries that can run my computer and tv monitor, and peripheries for 3 days continuously. So used sparingly I can probably get nearly a week out of them, and strung together I believe they could run my fridge if I need them to. But at around 150 to 200 bucks a piece, you could get a Big lots generator for that.  Only need to power the fridge on a few times a day.  Get a water bladder, or fill the tub, and buy lots of gallons to drink.  Problem with the tub, if you are all electric, the water might freeze with no heat and bust the tub. A camp stove to cook on with extra propane bottles. Good battery lamps and extra batteries. Best to get a usb charging lamp and extra battery packs.  There again at least 20000mah.  Or a couple of portable power stations are probably the same price. The more powerful the better. Walmart has power stations, and probably bat packs too. Dedicate one power station to the fridge and use the other for the phone, lamps, etc.  There maybe usb ceramic heaters too.  Should look into that. Walmart has 300 watt power stations for 160.  Not sure that would do the fridge, as it has a surge to start. 500 is better, 750 might do all your needs but can't say for how long.  And now you are in generator range. It's best to think of it as an adventure back in the way back machine to the days of yesteryear...as long as you don't have trees around that can make the house.  If you have those, it's then like Damocles' sword, and terrifying.

[dsaur]

8 minutes ago, dsaur said:

 

A 20,000 mah or higher battery pack for the phone.  I've got 4 lifepo4 200 watt solar batteries that can run my computer and tv monitor, and peripheries for 3 days continuously. So used sparingly I can probably get nearly a week out of them, and strung together I believe they could run my fridge if I need them to. But at around 150 to 200 bucks a piece, you could get a Big lots generator for that.  Only need to power the fridge on a few times a day.  Get a water bladder, or fill the tub, and buy lots of gallons to drink.  Problem with the tub, if you are all electric, the water might freeze with no heat and bust the tub. A camp stove to cook on with extra propane bottles. Good battery lamps and extra batteries. Best to get a usb charging lamp and extra battery packs.  There again at least 20000mah.  Or a couple of portable power stations are probably the same price. The more powerful the better. Walmart has power stations, and probably bat packs too. Dedicate one power station to the fridge and use the other for the phone, lamps, etc.  There maybe usb ceramic heaters too.  Should look into that. Walmart has 300 watt power stations for 160.  Not sure that would do the fridge, as it has a surge to start. 500 is better, 750 might do all your needs but can't say for how long.  And now you are in generator range. It's best to think of it as an adventure back in the way back machine to the days of yesteryear...as long as you don't have trees around that can make the house.  If you have those, it's then like Damocles' sword, and terrifying.  Edit:  Yep, Walmart has ceramic usb heaters too.  Get you one of those. Run if off your power station.

 

[GaWx]

0Z EPS snow mean: nothing like operational 

Members:

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z EPS snow mean: nothing like operational 

Members:

EPS has been fairly consistent too, unlike the op. 

[NorthHillsWx]

If I’m in the western Carolinas or Virginia I’m probably starting to sweat this one. If I’m in the Deep South or central/eastern Carolina’s I feel pretty good still. Suppressed I can deal with but a flat lifeless wave isn’t going to work for anyone. We’re at the stage now where trends matter. The trend is definitely a little more flat and suppressed. We’ll see if that stops. Having both the GFS and Euro on outside looking in is not good. EPS has been fairly rock solid though. Today will be interesting 

[Met1985]

We are 7 days away from this event and yall think the models have this laid out already? Good luck with that. Again and Again we have seen major changes just 2 to 3 days before a storm hits.  Don't get sucked in or out at the long lead time.  

[WiseWeather]

0Z EPS snow mean: nothing like operational 

Members:

29, 30, 38 and ill be good till 2027.


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[redteamllc]

12Z JMA appears to be a major winter storm 1/21-2 with major ZR deep SE.

Well, if we are all walking on thin ice, we may as well dance? Hopefully these trend cooler before then.

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[burgertime]

00z Euro OP run looked about where you want it 5-7 days out. As HKYWX pointed out the models are gonna be flip flopping dependent on those shortwaves that kick out from the west coast. The cold air is in place and that is the hardest step to get. Most of the time with this sort of cold air SOMETHING happens, the question is how big of a something. Wisdom says the OP models will probably pick up our storm again around the weekend as it resolves the s/w issue. Until then we read tea leaves.