Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[BornAgain13]

Significant improvement on the 18z EPS. Hopefully that holds or continues to improve at 0z

[snowmaker13]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Actually it’s a fantastic spot

No it's not. Again WNC gets nothing. How's that fantastic? Even RDU's totals got slashed. 

[StantonParkHoya]

5 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

No it's not. Again WNC gets nothing. How's that fantastic? Even RDU's totals got slashed. 

1. It always trends northwest; 2) I think this one might be ENC’s storm

[wncsnow]

We are at a crossroads right now. A lot of members still show no storm or very suppressed. Others have a bomb. It's nearing the time it will trend one way or another. We are about 7 days out now depending on the model. By 5 days we should have a better idea. 

[snowmaker13]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

1. It always trends northwest; 2) I think this one might be ENC’s storm

What a statement to make as 100% certain. 

[snowmaker13]

Just now, wncsnow said:

We are at a crossroads right now. A lot of members still show no storm or very suppressed. Others have a bomb. It's nearing the time it will trend one way or another. We are about 7 days out now depending on the model. By 5 days we should have a better idea. 

Don't worry "it always trends northwest". 

[Pilotwx]

Well Cold Air is out running moisture

[NorthHillsWx]

18 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Actually it’s a fantastic spot

My thoughts.

[wncsnow]

21 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Significant improvement on the 18z EPS. Hopefully that holds or continues to improve at 0z

Post 

[NorthHillsWx]

13 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

1. It always trends northwest; 2) I think this one might be ENC’s storm

Those in western NC don’t get burned every single storm by the NW trend. They just go from 2” of modeled snow to 4” of snow on the ground and call it a win while we rain. I’m not saying it’s gonna happen but if the storms where that model is right now I’m damn more Comfortable than one modeled along the coast at this range. IMBY whatever I haven’t seen an inch of snow in 3 years I’m living in the loony bin on this storm 

[SnowDawg]

18z EPS

Old 12z run.

Keep in mind as well that because of the hr144 cutoff the event is still underway when this stops, otherwise totals would be even higher.

[GaWx]

 I had been saying to give it through today (6 days out) to see if the common NW trend would finally get going as days 7-6 were when last week’s storm finally got a good trend NW and missed the coast. Well, it still hasn’t happened after all of these days. Clock is ticking fast now. This is at a crossroads.
 

 This is an uncommonly powerful, large and very cold/Siberian high in the picture this time. Last week it weakened rapidly to a falling apart 1020s high by the time it got close. In stark contrast, the Siberian high is progged to maintain 1040s to 1035 til when it is nearby to our north. With that in mind, with tonight’s 0Z runs being only within ~5.5 days, and with ensemble means getting beefier in the deeper SE, the chances of a NW trend finally taking away the deep SE/coastal significant wintry precip are dropping pretty fast now. If there’s none by 12Z tomorrow (~5 day point), this Jan 21-2 threat is likely going to be a rare storm that includes the SE coast in a significant way and not just affect well inland.

 If the coast ends up remaining in the winter storm picture and it’s mainly ZR, then that would mean a large portion of the well inland SE would probably have lots of snow and sleet. But if the coast were to end up with mainly snow, the heavier snow may not extend all that far inland…probably not more than 150 or so miles.

[sinterpol]

11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Those in western NC don’t get burned every single storm by the NW trend. They just go from 2” of modeled snow to 4” of snow on the ground and call it a win while we rain. I’m not saying it’s gonna happen but if the storms where that model is right now I’m damn more Comfortable than one modeled along the coast at this range. IMBY whatever I haven’t seen an inch of snow in 3 years I’m living in the loony bin on this storm 

preach

[SnowDawg]

I wouldn't say there is no NW trend showing but it certainly isn't as aggressive as usual. Despite the run to run variance of the OP GFS, the GEFS is clearly trending north with the precip for the early week threat. 

[SnowDawg]

Similar story on the EPS, although across fewer runs because the mid cycle runs being only 144 hours.

[wncsnow]

Icon is still suppressed

[GaWx]

 Because the icestorm threat here is still persisting, I’d like to be prepared just in case. I don’t have a generator and don’t plan to buy a portable at the last minute (if I even can). What other measures could I take? Is there something I can get just to power my fridge? What about something like a “portable power station”? Would they be very helpful? I see that Amazon has them and I can’t get them fast. Can I plug my fridge into that?

 Also, for recharging my phone, what about something like that or instead maybe something less powerful like a small charging hub? If I got that would it help to get several instead of just one in case the power were to be out for days? I could always return extra ones I don’t use within 30 days I believe.

 Any advice would be appreciated!

 

[jburns]

Just now, GaWx said:

 Because the icestorm threats here are persisting, I’d like to be prepared just in case. I don’t have a generator and don’t plan to buy a portable at the last minute (if I even can). What other measures could I take? Is there something I can get just to power my fridge? What about something like these “portable power stations”? Would they be very helpful? I see that Amazon has them and I can’t get them fast. Can I plug my fridge into that?

 Also, for recharging my phone, what about something like that or instead maybe something less powerful like a small charging hub? If I got that would it help to get several instead of just one in case the power were to be out for days? I could always return extra ones I don’t use within 30 days I believe.

 Any advice would be appreciated!

 

Several different EVS can power a full circuit if you know anyone that owns one.  Only have to hook up a fridge a few hours a day.

[StantonParkHoya]

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Icon is still suppressed

 

Definitely a step back from 12z

[WXNewton]

7 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Icon is still suppressed

Incoming on second storm...

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Incoming on second storm...

Yeah it focuses on wave 2

[StantonParkHoya]

3 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Incoming on second storm...

Incoming slop. 540 retreating and no HP

[WarmNoseHater]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Because the icestorm threat here is still persisting, I’d like to be prepared just in case. I don’t have a generator and don’t plan to buy a portable at the last minute (if I even can). What other measures could I take? Is there something I can get just to power my fridge? What about something like a “portable power station”? Would they be very helpful? I see that Amazon has them and I can’t get them fast. Can I plug my fridge into that?

 Also, for recharging my phone, what about something like that or instead maybe something less powerful like a small charging hub? If I got that would it help to get several instead of just one in case the power were to be out for days? I could always return extra ones I don’t use within 30 days I believe.

 Any advice would be appreciated!

 

anker makes a pretty nice charger that plugs directly into the wall AND includes a big battery.  I got 5 phone charges off of it recently.  

[ncforecaster89]

3 hours ago, sarcean said:

Last time it snowed in Jacksonville in 1989 and climo has changed massively since. I don't want to say 100% it's not going to happen but it's not going to happen unless something crazy like 1993 superstorm happened again.

I respectfully disagree, the same synoptic pattern can still produce a 1989 redux.  It’s a rare event for a reason, but it’s happened before and you can be certain it will happen again.  Could be next week or 50 years from now, but the climate hasn’t changed that remarkably nor will it. 

[WXNewton]

15 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Incoming slop. 540 retreating and no HP

Maybe so, but verbatim temps in WNC are around 20 degrees with moisture knocking on the door, I say that would cause a nasty situation on the roads. However this is over a week out and it will change a dozen times in the next few days. Surely we will see some consistency by the weekend at least on the first system. 

[SnowDawg]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Because the icestorm threat here is still persisting, I’d like to be prepared just in case. I don’t have a generator and don’t plan to buy a portable at the last minute (if I even can). What other measures could I take? Is there something I can get just to power my fridge? What about something like a “portable power station”? Would they be very helpful? I see that Amazon has them and I can’t get them fast. Can I plug my fridge into that?

 Also, for recharging my phone, what about something like that or instead maybe something less powerful like a small charging hub? If I got that would it help to get several instead of just one in case the power were to be out for days? I could always return extra ones I don’t use within 30 days I believe.

 Any advice would be appreciated!

 

If you're on well water, fill your bathtubs up to use for flushing the toilets. The power packs/charging hubs are definitely great for keeping your devices going. As for powering a fridge I wouldn't know without more research. I never owned a portable generator until I lost who knows how many dollars worth of food during Irma and vowed to never let that happen again.

[StantonParkHoya]

GFS suppressed

[wncsnow]

It's shredded 

[wncsnow]

Wave 2 is coming again 

[Thrasher Fan]

Just puzzling what the GFS is spitting out compared to the other models.