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Mid to long range discussion- 2025


wncsnow
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  On 1/15/2025 at 11:48 PM, StantonParkHoya said:

Am I a psycho for being thankful there were no over amped ones in there?

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I was worried about that the last few days but suppression to the point our energy in the SW is severed from the flow was not on my bingo board today. Suppressed is too broad here. There’s no storm. It holds the energy back until the cold press passes. 

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  On 1/15/2025 at 11:10 PM, StantonParkHoya said:

image.thumb.png.a959e469462729ea08bb152cb7aaddd6.png

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Jacksonville, FL has a whopping 0.7” on the 18Z GEFS for 1/21-2! That’s near 10 times the normal annual. Just unreal. This run has easily the heaviest snow mean yet for coastal SC to Jacksonville to Gainesville to the coast of LA! Nine members have snow at Jacksonville!

@pcbjr

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  On 1/16/2025 at 12:23 AM, GaWx said:

Jacksonville, FL has a whopping 0.7” on the 18Z GEFS for 1/21-2! That’s near 10 times the normal annual. Just unreal. This run has easily the heaviest snow mean for coastal SC to Jacksonville to Gainesville to the coast of LA! Nine members have snow at Jacksonville!

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Last time it snowed in Jacksonville in 1989 and climo has changed massively since. I don't want to say 100% it's not going to happen but it's not going to happen unless something crazy like 1993 superstorm happened again.

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The GFS is a great model..but also an excellent troll. It's been complete garbage on so many storms. Yet It's got the most wins against the Euro compared to all the other models.

 

So even when it's the outlier..it can never be discounted.  Everyone is forced to nervously hang on to every run with bated breaths. quite hilarious in a twisted cosmic sense. 

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  On 1/16/2025 at 1:41 AM, wxdawg10 said:

The GFS is a great model..but also an excellent troll. It's been complete garbage on so many storms. Yet It's got the most wins against the Euro compared to all the other models.

 

So even when it's the outlier..it can never be discounted.  Everyone is forced to nervously hang on to every run with bated breaths. quite hilarious in a twisted cosmic sense. 

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GEFS is not so bad.  Let's give the operational a few runs to see where it goes

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  On 1/16/2025 at 12:07 AM, dsaur said:

Climo does not agree with that much zr there, does it?  I surely hope not.

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Tony, I’ve been able to find only two other instances with at least about that much here: late Jan of 1922 (predecessor storm to tragic Knickerbocker Theatre storm in DC) and late Feb of 1914 (that one also had a decent amount of sleet). Early Jan of 2018 had a good bit but less than half that and thus limited outages. So, yes climo says not impossible but heck no unless we get a 100 year storm.

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