Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[WiseWeather]

GFS dont know whats going on. Its been super south today and super north.


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[WXNewton]

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS losing the storm entirely doesn’t give me the warm and fuzzies

Give it until about Friday and it'll be back...As long as ensembles still show something, hope is not lost.

[StantonParkHoya]

It’s truly wild that the Euro Ensembles — king and court of all models —  can show the complete opposite at this range.

[StantonParkHoya]

GEFS looks wetter than 12z.. hmmm

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

GEFS looks wetter than 12z.. hmmm

Yeah it’s not even close to the Op.  that’s extremely rare to see with the GFS honestly.  They usually are in tandem but there are some setups where there can be wild differences from the Op to the ensembles 

[Wow]

Find the difference

[olafminesaw]

Yep, GEFS continues the North trend. I would be pretty surprised if the OP didn't come back north by 12z tommorow or so

[BornAgain13]

GFS is real ugly for Thursday/Friday system... heavy ice and then rain

[Bevo]

At this point, I'm just going to trust the ole' saying "In this world, nothing is certain except death and taxes...and a NW result from what models are showing".

[Cheeznado]

The fact that the GEFS actually got a bit better means we can probably throw out this Op run.

[buckeyefan1]

It seems as if the gfs has kept todays streak of a completely different scenario with each run 

[NC_hailstorm]

GFS isn't in the ballparkt,it's not even in the parking lot yet.

Vastly different with the shortwave placement.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Round these parts, picking the model showing the least amount of snow is usually the correct call

[StantonParkHoya]

[buckeyefan1]

[buckeyefan1]

[StantonParkHoya]

I am not even going to pay attention to that dumpster fire late next week. There’s no way for us to win that.

[NorthHillsWx]

6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

If the Op follows along all will be well in the world

[BooneWX]

GEFS has the signal and continues to increase precip northward with each run. One of the rare times the ensemble won’t follow the OP.

[StantonParkHoya]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If the Op follows along all will be well in the world

It won’t because it hates us and doesn’t want to see us happy 

[NC DataDude]

So, are we seeing 3 possible systems (whether it be winter precip or not?)  Weekend/Tue-Wed/Fri-Sat?

Or are the models all gobbly wobbly  and it is a mosh posh of 2 storms strung out?

[Brick Tamland]

GFS is drunk and all over the place today.

[buckeyefan1]

P19 please

[lilj4425]

I don’t know what’s happening anymore. What days are we looking at again? 

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

P19 please

Definitely shows the whole suite is in the suppression camp 

[Tacoma]

I still believe in the NW Trend, it will come in due time.

[Brick Tamland]

6 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

I don’t know what’s happening anymore. What days are we looking at again? 

 Neither does the GFS.

[btownheel]

Definitely shows the whole suite is in the suppression camp 

Love that at this range. We know what climo is w/r/t 95% of the time…


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[Brick Tamland]

So, GFS has this for Sunday night into Monday, suppresses the storm the middle of next week, and then brings some ice at the end of next week.

[StantonParkHoya]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Definitely shows the whole suite is in the suppression camp 

Am I a psycho for being thankful there were no over amped ones in there?