Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[KrummWx]

So you're saying there's a chance

[kvegas-wx]

27 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Are we playing Keno with pretty pictures?  I'll take 17 FTW please!

[ILM2714]

17 minutes ago, Kimmie said:

I was a senior at UNCW, living downtown. It was so much fun!!!

A senior living downtown has lots of fun. That must have been wild!

[Tacoma]

3 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Are we playing Keno with pretty pictures?  I'll take 17 FTW please!

I'll take 7, 9 or 22.  

[NorthHillsWx]

Hell I’ll take 15 of those

[NorthHillsWx]

24 minutes ago, KrummWx said:

So you're saying there's a chance

Haven’t seen that in central NC since the color TV

[BornAgain13]

I'm not sure what the 12z AI looks like as far as Snow and ICE, but it increased significantly in the amount of QPF

[BornAgain13]

48 HR QPF ending at 12z Thursday

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

48 HR QPF ending at 12z Thursday

Unfortunately the majority of this on the 12Z Euro AI is ZR in my area with temps just at or just below 32, 850s at +3 to +5, and north winds keeping the warming from the ocean away. Not good.

[UpStateCAD]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

Unfortunately the majority of this is ZR in my area with temps just below 32 and north winds keeping the warming from the ocean away.

I would think this would be a very nice thump for the upstate into NC.

[NorthHillsWx]

11 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I'm not sure what the 12z AI looks like as far as Snow and ICE, but it increased significantly in the amount of QPF

The AI is insistent on a raging ice storm with mid 20’s at the surface and a perfect storm track. Color me skeptical 

[GaWx]

12Z JMA appears to be a major winter storm 1/21-2 with major ZR deep SE.

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

12Z JMA appears to be a major winter storm 1/21-2 with major ZR deep SE.

Looks very similar to the AI in regards to QPF

[NorthHillsWx]

For the life of me I cannot figure out how the AI loses our HP and drives a hard southerly flow at 850 during the storm with that track. I don’t buy it

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

For the life of me I cannot figure out how the AI loses our HP and drives a hard southerly flow at 850 during the storm with that track. I don’t buy it

It wasn’t good with sfc features for last week’s storm.

[GaWx]

 Only one of our 3 TV stations seems to be talking about a threat Tue-Thu.

 NWS CHS:

 

  AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY AND BEYOND, THE FORECAST BECOMES   EXCEEDINGLY TRICKY AND ALSO POTENTIALLY VERY IMPACTFUL. MOST   MODEL SOLUTIONS BROADLY AGREE THAT WE WILL HAVE VERY COLD AIR   COINCIDENT WITH PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW   PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OR OFF THE COAST. VARIOUS   DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO   HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST   AREA AS A RESULT. HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS   REGARDING THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION, PRECIPITATION TYPES AND   AMOUNTS, AND SPECIFIC IMPACTED AREAS. ALL SCENARIOS ARE ON THE   TABLE, INCLUDING SEEING LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL.    

[BornAgain13]

Has anyone extrapolated the NAM yet? Lol

[GaWx]

NWS CHS for SAV: don’t see this every day 

MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY   MOSTLY SUNNY. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS   IN THE MID 40S.
 

    MONDAY NIGHT   MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF   FREEZING RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.  

  TUESDAY   PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN.   HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. WIND   CHILL VALUES AROUND 20 IN THE MORNING.    

TUESDAY NIGHT   MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.   LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 20.    

WEDNESDAY   MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND FREEZING   RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.   WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 20 IN THE MORNING.

[StantonParkHoya]

Icon?

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Icon?

18z doesn't run far enough out to draw any conclusions, although it looks further south with the Sunday system which is good

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[wncsnow]

I can already tell the GFS is going to be suppression city. 

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS insistent we at least get a storm thread for Sunday 

[BornAgain13]

18z GFS continues to squash the first wave next week. 

[mclean02]

heres a video from WYFF News  

 

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS is really bad 

[BornAgain13]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS is really bad 

Its like a kid that doesn't listen and just wants to do its own thing 

[Cheeznado]

The GFS continues to swing wildly, I hope that is a sign it is OTL. If not, we are all screwed.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS losing the storm entirely doesn’t give me the warm and fuzzies