Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[BooneWX]

DC weenies are going to have an absolute meltdown 

[wncsnow]

This would be a real kick to the nads

[GaWx]

Stronger sfc high to the north on 12Z GFS. I’d like to see that continue to trend back stronger.

[NorthHillsWx]

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

DC weenies are going to have an absolute meltdown 

The northern trend they were praying for yesterday has been answered!

[Daniel Boone]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

This would be a real kick to the nads

I'm pulling for you guys over there. I hate when all around gets snow and leaves an area in a void. 

[BooneWX]

That ridge orientation is just not going to do the trick. It’s fine that it’s close to the Rockies but it can’t be oriented like that. We really need it to tilt more vertically. I would assume it’s the pacific jet tilting it but someone more intelligent would have to confirm.


.

[GaWx]

12Z GFS: very close in this area on Jan 10th: near freezing at sfc 1PM with cold NNE sfc winds, 850 temp near 0C, and radar showing sleet/mix falling then

 

 

 

@Awesomesauce81might be interested

[Cheeznado]

The models are still vacillating  wildly, this still a week out but at least for GA, very few if any ensemble members show a "big dog:" snow any more. Also, the idea of super cold air is also fading fast. Color me very skeptical.

[eyewall]

4 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

The models are still vacillating  wildly, this still a week out but at least for GA, very few if any ensemble members show a "big dog:" snow any more. Also, the idea of super cold air is also fading fast. Color me very skeptical.

you and me both. It is almost as if we have seen this movie before.

[GaWx]

12Z Icon very different from 0Z with split flow, which leads to snow Gulf coast 1/9:

 

This leads to a very close call Gulf coast 1/9:

[tarheelwx]

I think the idea of super cold is completely off the table.  However, I think we're still looking pretty solid below normal for at least the next week or so.  Still a far cry from what the ensembles were showing.

TW

[olafminesaw]

12z GFS, CMC and ICON all take baby steps in the right direction. UKMET remains super suppressed.

[GaWx]

12Z CMC has similar split flow to 12Z Icon leading to snow Gulf coast by Jan 9th like on Icon and GFS (CMC and Icon didn’t have this favorable of a split flow at 0Z):

 

 

 

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

12Z CMC has similar split flow to 12Z Icon leading to snow Gulf coast by Jan 9th (bit earlier):

 

 

 

When I said I wanted a southern slider for Christmas this is not what I meant...

[GaWx]

47 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

When I said I wanted a southern slider for Christmas this is not what I meant...

It’s all just digital at this point. Nobody has anything yet.

 12Z GEFS through Jan 11th: more than recent runs N GA to NW 2/3 of NC:

[SnowDawg]

Pretty substantial increase in QPF for the 10th/11th on the GEFS. Let's see if we can get this to continue trending this direction. Also fwiw, the Euro made a big jump towards the GFS with the handling of the SW energy.

[olafminesaw]

11 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Pretty substantial increase in QPF for the 10th/11th on the GEFS. Let's see if we can get this to continue trending this direction. Also fwiw, the Euro made a big jump towards the GFS with the handling of the SW energy.

Can you show what you're seeing on the H5 between 0z and 12z. Seemed relatively similar to me, but I struggle when I get away from surface maps

[GaWx]

-12Z UKMET has no split flow and thus no wintry precip in SE

-12Z Euro some changes but it’s fairly similar to last 2 runs in not having much wintry precip in GA/SC/NC outside of mountains through 360:

 

 12Z Euro similar to 12Z UKMET still no H5 split flow providing moisture unlike Icon and CMC.

 

12Z Euro similar to UKMET has all H5 flow down to the Gulf coast at crucial time we’ve been following from WNW to W (dry)

 

But 12Z CMC (like 12Z Icon) has dry WNW to W H5 flow only well to the north (still supplying the cold) while having moist WSW flow Gulf to Deep South (aka split flow) that flows over low level cold and thus wintry precip there:

 

[olafminesaw]

12z vs 0z EPS

[SnowDawg]

22 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Can you show what you're seeing on the H5 between 0z and 12z. Seemed relatively similar to me, but I struggle when I get away from surface maps

So looking at the 500mbar vorticity maps so we can see our pieces of energy, notice how unlike at 0z last night the Euro is not taking that big SW cutoff out into the pacific. At the same time our northern energy is digging further SW and attempting to phase. It ultimately fails, but it's a step in the right direction. (0z followed by new 12z)

[wncsnow]

The long range op Euro is not pretty. Not even really cold and more rain threats not snow. 

[Awesomesauce81]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

12Z GFS: very close in this area on Jan 10th: near freezing at sfc 1PM with cold NNE sfc winds, 850 temp near 0C, and radar showing sleet/mix falling then

 

 

 

@Awesomesauce81might be interested

I'm keeping an eye on it but I prefer cold rain if it ain't snow lol

 

[GaWx]

12Z EPS snow through 1/11: similar to slight decrease

 This was 0Z through Jan 11th:

Comparing the above map to the new run (12Z) below through Jan 11th shows similar in some places and decrease in others:

 

Full new (12Z) run: slight increase N GA/much of SC meaning an increase after Jan 11th there while fairly similar overall NC:

[NorthHillsWx]

I’m throwing in the towel on this period. I see nothing changing for the positive. Maybe something sneaks in as the pattern breaks down in a couple weeks

[lilj4425]

Still believe global warming is fake? Looking more and more likely of four years with no snow as this Winter is looking abysmal. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Awesomesauce81 said:

I'm keeping an eye on it but I prefer cold rain if it ain't snow lol

 

 No need to worry. Our area will most likely get either nothing or just a trace no matter what the wintry form. 150 years of weather history tells me that getting measurable wintry here is typically very difficult. The models sometimes tease us and more often than not end up as nothing.

 More recently, we’ve not even had a T of wintry in 7 years (longest wintry drought at least back to 1880s).

 Measurable since 1990: 3/93 light snow at end (from “Storm of Century”), 2/96 (light snow from upper low), 2/10 (rain changed to snow at end), 1/14 (light ZR and IP), and the big one, 1/18 (ZR, IP, SN). So, 5 times in 34 winters or once ever 7 winters since 90-91.

 A trace would be a reasonable goal with only the HOPE, not the expectation, of more. I’m actually not expecting anything per normalcy. But that doesn’t mean I don’t hope because at some point it will finally happen again.

[BooneWX]

Sticking to their guns

[BooneWX]

WE ARE SO BACK

[BooneWX]

HAPPY HOUR

[BornAgain13]

And here comes the GFS..... Throwing a bone