Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[BornAgain13]

Euro is coming in with another wave on Thursday 

[Brick Tamland]

[WXNewton]

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Euro is coming in with another wave on Thursday 

Similar to Canadian and GFS has second wave...Oh boy so much energy on the map I think this will be a few interesting days of model watching ahead.

[Upstate Tiger]

2 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Similar to Canadian and GFS has second wave...Oh boy so much energy on the map I think this will be a few interesting days of model watching ahead.

Yes!!

[Brick Tamland]

Canadian and UK are similar with a bigger storm. GFS and Euro are a little similar with two different waves but at different times and have smaller storms. Euro was less suppressed with the first wave than previously. Still seems like a lot of different solutions on the table.

[WXNewton]

So 12z Canadian crushes Western NC and has a catastrophic ice storm in deep south, UK is more of a central and ENC storm, Euro hits parts of western NC with a finger of snow to start but much heavier in ENC and GFS is suppressed and depressed. So all and all the storm is there but timing, track and evolution of the low and how strong the push of arctic air is still anyone's guess. Blend ensembles and we continue to watch for trends heading into the weekend. 

[Tony Sisk]

24 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

UK is a big hit for central and ENC... A blend of that and the Canadian would be nice for everyone on the board.

 

this would be so South Carolina! For the entire state to get snow except the mountains of SC!

[GaWx]

37 minutes ago, gtg947h said:

Yeah disaster would be an understatement on that.  I'd welcome a good "snow day" break from work (and laugh darkly at upper management's pleading to work from home if we have power) but that's no bueno.

We somehow kept power through the whole hurricane late last year, but I have a feeling an ice storm may hit us worse and be more damaging/have worse people impact (since so many people are dependent on heat pumps/resistive heat vs. gas or oil furnaces)...

12Z UKMET gives us 2” of qpf with our temperatures at 32 or lower from very late Mon night (1/21) til 24 hours later (near sunrise Wed morning 1/22)!! The good news is that a fair bit is snow is implied. The 850s are only +1 to +2 for the first 9 hours or so (which tends to be cold enough for sleet more often than ZR) before dropping to potential snow levels of 0C to as low as -1C for part of the time. So, this may all be almost all sleet and snow on the 12Z UKMET and would be historic. Of course the odds are low (standard disclaimer out 144 hours), but we’re getting closer!

 

[franklin NCwx]

The 2nd wave mid/late next week will be the bigger storm. Hopefully it's not a cutter!

[metalicwx367]

12 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Here's the accumulated freezing rain chart for us southern Georgia and Florida peeps. 

[Awesomesauce81]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z UKMET gives us 2” of qpf with our temperatures at 32 or lower from very late Mon night (1/21) til 24 hours later (near sunrise Wed morning 1/22)!! The good news is that a fair bit is snow is implied. The 850s are only +1 to +2 for the first 9 hours or so (which tends to be cold enough for sleet more often than ZR) before dropping to potential snow levels of 0C to as low as -1C for part of the time. So, this may all be almost all sleet and snow on the 12Z UKMET and would be historic. Of course the odds are low (standard disclaimer out 144 hours), but we’re getting closer!

 

The UK would definitely be the best solution for our area if we were to get anything 

[WNC_Fort]

35 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

UK is a big hit for central and ENC... A blend of that and the Canadian would be nice for everyone on the board.

 

This sort of map is a classic @WNC_Fortand @wncsnownightmare (but one I think is more likely to happen)

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, Awesomesauce81 said:

The UK would definitely be the best solution for our area if we were to get anything 

A weak low crossing central FL (not N FL) like the 12Z UK does is what we want to root for. History of past winter storms here agrees.

[Brick Tamland]

Would love to see the GFS and Euro come back to the UK and CMC solution. I don't think it was uncommon in the past when we actually did get a storm for the Euro and GFS to sniff out a storm in the long range and then it look worse while the UK and CMC pick up the storm, and then the Euro and GFS come back to it again, just not as big as the monster solutions they had before.

[BornAgain13]

Out of all the guidance we just saw at 12z... This is probably the one that bares the most weight. We know how good the EPS can be.

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Out of all the guidance we just saw at 12z... This is probably the one that bares the most weight. We know how good the EPS can be.

Very good signal this far out.

[CaryWx]

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Out of all the guidance we just saw at 12z... This is probably the one that bares the most weight. We know how good the EPS can be.

Don't see an eps 'mean' like that too often

[WXNewton]

Best run yet on Euro Ens, here's the last 4 runs. 

[BornAgain13]

Just now, WXNewton said:

Best run yet on Euro Ens, here's the last 4 runs. 

Yep and it's not even finished...

[Brick Tamland]

EPS mean has the heaviest axis of snow where the CMC and UK did, too.

[StantonParkHoya]

5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Yep and it's not even finished...

Anything after Wednesday is not going to work for non-mountain/Virginia folks 

[EarlGrey]

Was actually thinking of going to the mountains next weekend and now you up in here saying I should go to the beach?!

[NorthHillsWx]

10 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Best run yet on Euro Ens, here's the last 4 runs. 

That is absolutely amazing. That’s probably the best EPS run central NC has had 6-7 days out

[suzook]

36 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

this would be so South Carolina! For the entire state to get snow except the mountains of SC!

LMFAO. The coast of GA and SC getting 15 inches of snow? Funny shit.

[Tacoma]

Just hoping the excess cold doesn't push the storm to Cancun.  Lord we have to double thread two needles around here.  Unreal.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[KrummWx]

How did the Canadian and UK perform on our last system this far out? I didn't save any of their maps. My imprssion has always been that the UK is less than reliable, Canadian super hit or miss.

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, WXNewton said:

UK is a big hit for central and ENC... A blend of that and the Canadian would be nice for everyone on the board.

 

Not totally unprecedented 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, KrummWx said:

How did the Canadian and UK perform on our last system this far out? I didn't save any of their maps. My imprssion has always been that the UK is less than reliable, Canadian super hit or miss.

Both way too cold and south

[SnowGoose69]

I still like the idea right now of places like BHM/ATL being on the north end of this and it being more a central AL-GA-coastal SC NC event.  But I am still wary of the fact that these days these cold air masses tend to be overdone on models at this range, if thats the case again something near or just south of this previous event is likely.