Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[wncsnow]

The UK is stuck

[Brick Tamland]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The UK is stuck

Can't handle all the snow it's going to show.

[olafminesaw]

GEFS actually trended a bit less suppressed the last few runs

[BornAgain13]

Anybody think ground temps will be an issue? Sorry had to do it after someone mentioned sun angle yesterday lol

[lilj4425]

7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Can't handle all the snow it's going to show.

My body is ready. 

[gtg947h]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z CMC: no thank you for this modeled disaster of 1.78” of ZR at Hunter/2.32” at SAV but fortunately this is highly likely overdone and also CMC has a low level cold bias, especially considering that the low passes by not too far offshore

Yeah disaster would be an understatement on that.  I'd welcome a good "snow day" break from work (and laugh darkly at upper management's pleading to work from home if we have power) but that's no bueno.

We somehow kept power through the whole hurricane late last year, but I have a feeling an ice storm may hit us worse and be more damaging/have worse people impact (since so many people are dependent on heat pumps/resistive heat vs. gas or oil furnaces)...

[olafminesaw]

6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Anybody think ground temps will be an issue? Sorry had to do it after someone mentioned sun angle yesterday lol

Yep. The ground is going to be so cold it is going to sublimate the snow on contact 

[NorthHillsWx]

It is so hard to get snow here

[dsaur]

36 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z CMC: no thank you for this modeled disaster of 1.78” of ZR at Hunter/2.32” at SAV but fortunately this is highly likely overdone and also CMC has a low level cold bias, especially considering that the low passes by not too far offshore:

 

Sleet:

Man, put up with near a half inch of zr to get over two of sleet, and be really close to over 3....so very temping.  I think I'd take that deal.

[wncsnow]

UK finally rolling in. Looks more suppressed than the previous run. 

[Brick Tamland]

UK was also close to getting some snow down into NC Sunday night, but it was too far north.

[buckeyefan1]

That’s a lot of energy flying around with the players not on the field yet. I expect to see some different solutions until the models can get a little better handle on it 

[GaWx]

 

20 minutes ago, gtg947h said:

Yeah disaster would be an understatement on that.  I'd welcome a good "snow day" break from work (and laugh darkly at upper management's pleading to work from home if we have power) but that's no bueno.

We somehow kept power through the whole hurricane late last year, but I have a feeling an ice storm may hit us worse and be more damaging/have worse people impact (since so many people are dependent on heat pumps/resistive heat vs. gas or oil furnaces)...

If there were to actually be a winter storm here early to mid next week, I wouldn’t at all be giving up on snow or sleet here despite the higher risk for ZR:

12Z GEFS looks quite nice for us and much of the deep SE…check out the 0.4” way down at Jacksonville:

11 of the 30 members give us snow within 1/21-2 with 8 of the 30 at 1”+ with 5 of those 2”+! So, this isn’t just 1 or 2 crazy members skewing it. This is about as good a look we’re going to get on the GEFS while still out 6 days:

@pcbjr

@Awesomesauce81

[frazdaddy]

2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

That’s a lot of energy flying around with the players not on the field yet. I expect to see some different solutions until the models can get a little better handle on it 

So much this.

[WXNewton]

UK is a big hit for central and ENC... A blend of that and the Canadian would be nice for everyone on the board.

 

[wncsnow]

Operational models have definitely trended towards suppression with the first wave and possibly a 2nd wave later next week. 

[Brick Tamland]

UK looks good.

[Brick Tamland]

So to recap the last model runs, the GFS with some snow here Sunday night, nothing next Tuesday into Wednesday, and then a little storm Friday into Saturday. The Canadian has a decent storm here again next Wednesday into Thursday. The UK is similar to the Canadian with a decent storm, but it comes in faster next Tuesday into Wednesday.

[broken024]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

So to recap the last model runs, the GFS with some snow here Sunday night, nothing next Tuesday into Wednesday, and then a little storm Friday into Saturday. The Canadian has a decent storm here again next Wednesday into Thursday. The UK is similar to the Canadian with a decent storm, but it comes in faster next Tuesday into Wednesday.

Excellent recap. Thank you for all you do.

[NorthHillsWx]

12 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Operational models have definitely trended towards suppression with the first wave and possibly a 2nd wave later next week. 

Except the Canadian and UK

[Brick Tamland]

Euro looks like it will be better.

[wncsnow]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Except the Canadian and UK

They both had slightly less amped runs as well. 

[NorthHillsWx]

8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

So to recap the last model runs, the GFS with some snow here Sunday night, nothing next Tuesday into Wednesday, and then a little storm Friday into Saturday. The Canadian has a decent storm here again next Wednesday into Thursday. The UK is similar to the Canadian with a decent storm, but it comes in faster next Tuesday into Wednesday.

And ICON is suppressed but close 

[BornAgain13]

The UK, although it missed my area, looked like a great run to me!

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Euro looks like it will be better.

Yes it does

[WXNewton]

Euro def. more north and west this run, but still slides under most of us while the coast gets more moisture. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Upstate Tiger]

Euro says hold your tears...

[Brick Tamland]

Euro is less suppressed this time.

[Kimmie]

This is why I sometimes only watch the last 3 minutes of the Super Bowl, or college basketball championship games. Can't deal with the rollercoaster - but it is fun!