Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[Droessl]

9 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

I have a feeling trends will go our way today.

WRAL already saying next Wednesday is looking interesting is a higher level of confidence 7 days out than I'm used to

[GaWx]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

GFS runs with significant SE coastal wintry precip within 1/21-2:

Jan 11 6Z and 12Z

Jan 12 6Z and 18Z

Jan 13 0Z, 6Z, 12Z, 18Z

Jan 14 0Z, 6Z, 12Z

So, 11 of last 14 and 8 in a row!

 The 12Z CMC has ZR later, on 1/23-4, with it still falling some areas especially just inland at the end (fortunately only light along coast SAV northeastward):

 The 6Z GFS was the 1st run since way back at the Jan 12 12Z run with no significant SE coastal wintry precip. during 1/21-2. So, there had been 10 GFS runs in a row like that just prior to today’s 6Z. And not only that but there’s no precip of any kind in any of the SE US 1/21-2! Interesting!

 

GFS runs with significant SE coastal wintry precip within 1/21-2:

Jan 11 6Z and 12Z

Jan 12 6Z and 18Z

Jan 13 0Z, 6Z, 12Z, 18Z

Jan 14 0Z, 6Z, 12Z, 18Z

Jan 15 0Z but not on 6Z (1st since 12Z Jan 12)

 A delay of anything in the SE til after 1/22 means a higher risk of not having enough cold air for a storm to intermingle with for widespread SE wintry precip since 1/20-2 is when the coldest of the air has been plunging down and fresh enough for a winter storm. Near perfect timing is crucial for the SE as we know!

[CaryWx]

7 minutes ago, Droessl said:

WRAL already saying next Wednesday is looking interesting is a higher level of confidence 7 days out than I'm used to

My iPhone apple weather app says snow next Tues.  That's all the confidence I need.

[wake4est]

13 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

My iPhone apple weather app says snow next Tues.  That's all the confidence I need.

AND next Friday.  But I preferred yesterday when it was giving us 17-21" 

[wncsnow]

ICON is suppressed, much like its earlier runs. Coastal areas in GA, SC and the FL panhandle get snow. 

[olafminesaw]

ICON drops 6"+ on new Orleans with temps in the mid 20s

[Brick Tamland]

Not surprised to see the models suppressing the storm now. Remember the Christmas 2010 storm? The models showed a big storm, then suppressed it all the way down to Cuba before it trended back NW and ended up being a big storm for NC. 

[BornAgain13]

ICON continues with the suppressed look.

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

ICON is suppressed, much like its earlier runs. Coastal areas in GA, SC and the FL panhandle get snow. 

 The 12Z Icon gives SAV area 6-8” of snow (7.9” at further inland airport and 6.3” at Hunter near the city). This looks like legit snow on the clown map since 850s are near or just below 0C and 2m temps are in upper 20s and then fall to mid 20s during it. Adjusting down for what Kuchera may have had, it would likely be closer to 5-7”. Whereas that would be amazing and I’d obviously love to see it, SAV hasn’t received that much snow since way back on March 3, 1837! So, SAV getting anywhere near this much snow is, needless to say, extremely unlikely especially since this is still 6.5 days away.

https://www.weather.gov/chs/todayinwxhistory

[NorthHillsWx]

I am very much OK with the ICON look at this juncture

[NorthHillsWx]

ICON also very close to something SUN PM especially for triad, SW VA folks on here

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I am very much OK with the ICON look at this juncture

I’m ok with it too as painful as it is to see this.

[strongwxnc]

GSP has my high at 24 next Tuesday! Got the cold to work with. No just need the time frame to set up and produce. 

[BornAgain13]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

ICON also very close to something SUN PM especially for triad, SW VA folks on here

I'm watching that like a Hawk for up here lol

[Ephesians2]

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I'm watching that like a Hawk for up here lol

Unfortunately I think this is the type of event that tends to trend northwest. But maybe this year is an exception.

[BornAgain13]

5 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

Unfortunately I think this is the type of event that tends to trend northwest. But maybe this year is an exception.

GFS really cranks it up near us Sunday night. 

[olafminesaw]

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

GFS really cranks it up near us Sunday night. 

Yeah, a little warm for accumulations, but certainly could be some mood flakes, or perhaps a car topper!

[Tony Sisk]

24 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

ICON continues with the suppressed look.

ICON Suppression equals South Depression!

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Yeah, a little warm for accumulations, but certainly could be some mood flakes, or perhaps a car topper!

Could be a nice surprise for someone. That’s a potent piece of energy flying through. 

[snowinnc]

36 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

ICON is suppressed, much like its earlier runs. Coastal areas in GA, SC and the FL panhandle get snow. 

I know that the standard NW trend will probably happen, but if the Florida panhandle gets more snow than RDU, I’m going to think that we’re all cursed for some reason when it comes to snow. Come on winter weather!!!

[NorthHillsWx]

Yea the GFS was quite Interesting for Sunday!!!

[Brick Tamland]

GFS has some snow here Sunday night into Monday.

[wncsnow]

Gfs looks like it will be very suppressed too 

[Brick Tamland]

I'd gladly take this, too.

[BornAgain13]

GFS for next week is really pressed down by the cold. Ouch. 

[wncsnow]

GFS doesn't have a storm at all through Wednesday morning 

[NorthHillsWx]

Who needs the Tuesday storm when you can have the Sunday storm!?!

[GaWx]

12Z GFS has snow for a portion of coastal SC and NC Tue night!

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS holding the energy back. Again.

[BornAgain13]

Sharks get some accumulation just off the coast of SC per GFS.