Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[PackGrad05]

I agree that NW trend is possible, but we are dealing with an anomalously cold air mass so suppression is absolutely on the table. It may be a case where it is just too plain cold. That’s what the euro op is showing.

With that said, the euro op was wrong by a couple inches for central NC during the last system. The ensembles were much more on point.


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[Upstate Tiger]

One thing from overnight that is a bit bothersome is the delay showing up in the last few runs.  Would really like to see that wave follow the 19th storm 24-48 hours later versus 96 hours.  Nevertheless, still have a signal and models likely don’t have a handle on timing of the specific pieces of energy.  

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, Upstate Tiger said:

One thing from overnight that is a bit bothersome is the delay showing up in the last few runs.  Would really like to see that wave follow the 19th storm 24-48 hours later versus 96 hours.  Nevertheless, still have a signal and models likely don’t have a handle on timing of the specific pieces of energy.  

Was typing something similar. This is one of the ways we lose I posted yesterday. The energy gets hung up in the SW and we end up with what the GFS just showed. That would be epic pain 

[BornAgain13]

WPC HR 162

[BornAgain13]

WPC HR 192

[StantonParkHoya]

Glad WPC still believes. I worry.

[buckeyefan1]

Some of ya’ll are going to need therapy by the time February gets here   Hang in there everyone!

[NorthHillsWx]

12 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Some of ya’ll are going to need therapy by the time February gets here   Hang in there everyone!

After the last 6 winters I need it bad

[buckeyefan1]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

After the last 6 winters I need it bad

Right!? This month should’ve come with a trigger warning

[StantonParkHoya]

Days are getting noticeably longer and we’re halfway through January. May not feel like it, but met winter is closing fast. Only a little over 40 days left. 

[NorthHillsWx]

6 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Right!? This month should’ve come with a trigger warning

It need not get forgotten with the RDU crowd that even though the snowless record will not be broken, our 1/2” of slop did not do anything to put a dent in our snow drought. 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and now through 2025 we have seen a grand total of one seasonal snow of 3”, everything else has been 2” or less. We are in an extreme snow drought even for our area

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BooneWX]

Took a break last night and went to bed without looking at the runs. I like where we’re at. Everyone should. This is the most barking signal we’ve had in almost a decade. Last storm we had a windshield wiper effect going but most model suites have generally the same idea and we keep seeing major events on various Ops and ensemble runs. The two caveats I can see screwing this up:

 

1. yesterday was not a good trend in the PNA department. We lost some ground there. It’s inevitably going negative as we head into Feb but for those three/4ish days we need it to quit trending towards neutral. If we don’t have a solid western ridge, we run the risk of the cold dumping south but not south east fast enough. 
 

2. Obvious risk of an amped up storm that creates mixing issues (likely a problem regardless). 
 

aside: we need to have a chat about the GFS. We joke about it quite a bit in this group but I legitimately am not sure you can give it an ounce of weight anymore. 
 

Watch king Euro AI and then prepare to watch king NAM

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Took a break last night and went to bed without looking at the runs. I like where we’re at. Everyone should. This is the most barking signal we’ve had in almost a decade. Last storm we had a windshield wiper effect going but most model suites have generally the same idea and we keep seeing major events on various Ops and ensemble runs. The two caveats I can see screwing this up:

 

1. yesterday was not a good trend in the PNA department. We lost some ground there. It’s inevitably going negative as we head into Feb but for those three/4ish days we need it to quit trending towards neutral. If we don’t have a solid western ridge, we run the risk of the cold dumping south but not south east fast enough. 
 

2. Obvious risk of an amped up storm that creates mixing issues (likely a problem regardless). 
 

aside: we need to have a chat about the GFS. We joke about it quite a bit in this group but I legitimately am not sure you can give it an ounce of weight anymore. 
 

Watch king Euro AI and then prepare to watch king NAM

0z Euro AI was Ice ice baby. Proves your point about the cold holding back to the west, because the track is quite nice

[HKY_WX]

47 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Days are getting noticeably longer and we’re halfway through January. May not feel like it, but met winter is closing fast. Only a little over 40 days left. 

First 2 wks of march are often some of our best chances. On next week, the euro and gfs are notoriously bad at resolving shortwaves in the southwest. Until they agree on when it kicks out, there will continue to be wild Swings. 

[franklin NCwx]

29 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Days are getting noticeably longer and we’re halfway through January. May not feel like it, but met winter is closing fast. Only a little over 40 days left. 

First sun angle post

[PackGrad05]

The cold is holding back because the high is not in an ideal placement for east coast.  It is too far west and that cold dense air has a hard time bleeding past the Apps.

 

[StantonParkHoya]

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

The cold is holding back because the high is not in an ideal placement for east coast.  It is too far west and that cold dense air has a hard time bleeding past the Apps.

 

There is no cold holding back. We have a timing discrepancy on shortwave ejection

[PackGrad05]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

There is no cold holding back. We have a timing discrepancy on shortwave ejection

I understand that, but the arctic push is coming from too far west...   It would be "better" for us to be to our north/northeast.

[strongwxnc]

7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I understand that, but the arctic push is coming from too far west...   It would be "better" for us to be to our north/northeast.

Yup,. As the timing moves more into the week next week plus no strong high pressure. The flow needs to be a more N-S and not W-E. 

Lots on the table still.

Happy hunting. 

 

[StantonParkHoya]

6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I understand that, but the arctic push is coming from too far west...   It would be "better" for us to be to our north/northeast.

Difficult to move Siberia 

[frazdaddy]

17 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Took a break last night and went to bed without looking at the runs. I like where we’re at. Everyone should. This is the most barking signal we’ve had in almost a decade. Last storm we had a windshield wiper effect going but most model suites have generally the same idea and we keep seeing major events on various Ops and ensemble runs. The two caveats I can see screwing this up:

 

1. yesterday was not a good trend in the PNA department. We lost some ground there. It’s inevitably going negative as we head into Feb but for those three/4ish days we need it to quit trending towards neutral. If we don’t have a solid western ridge, we run the risk of the cold dumping south but not south east fast enough. 
 

2. Obvious risk of an amped up storm that creates mixing issues (likely a problem regardless). 
 

aside: we need to have a chat about the GFS. We joke about it quite a bit in this group but I legitimately am not sure you can give it an ounce of weight anymore. 
 

Watch king Euro AI and then prepare to watch king NAM

well said sir , POD

[BooneWX]

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[olafminesaw]

I just would like to point out on this date last year we were on page 15 of the long range discussion thread, this year page 65. And of course that excludes all the posts in the storm thread. At least it hasn't been boring!

[burgertime]

55 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

First 2 wks of march are often some of our best chances. On next week, the euro and gfs are notoriously bad at resolving shortwaves in the southwest. Until they agree on when it kicks out, there will continue to be wild Swings. 

Bingo! 

[NorthHillsWx]

I cannot believe we already got a sun angle post

[StantonParkHoya]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I cannot believe we already got a sun angle post

I had to do it

[NorthHillsWx]

Everyone needs 12z to produce or this place will die

[CentralNC]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Everyone needs 12z to produce or this place will die

I have a feeling trends will go our way today.

[olafminesaw]