Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[wncsnow]

Canadian looks more like the big Euro run earlier today. 

[wncsnow]

Heh. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Brick Tamland]

Canadian goes from snow to ice but is a huge hit.

 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Well, we have had all three main models show a big dog at one point. I am getting the feeling that this is somewhat legit. One thing that I am still unsure of is the strength of that high pressure. Really.....1050mb+ ..... If that is not as strong as currently modeled come verification time, then all bets are off. I will be watching to see if the models back off of the strength in the coming days and how much.

[wncsnow]

UK wants to join too

[wncsnow]

UK

[wncsnow]

[Brick Tamland]

UK looks like the Canadian and Old GFS runs.

[GaWx]

0Z: CMC and UKMET like the ICON have large amounts of IP/ZR mainly to the south of the snow. GFS ZR not as bad (<0.45 everywhere).

[Brick Tamland]

End of the UK. Still more to come after this for NC.

[Brick Tamland]

So we have the GFS with a decent hit, and the ICON, Canadian and UK with big hits their last run. I say game on!

 

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

End of the UK. Still more to come after this for NC.

 This 0Z UKMET clown map is way overdone in the S/SE portion of the snow shown. For example, Statesboro, GA doesn’t get anywhere near 11.4” of snow because no more than 0.1” of qpf falls when 850s aren’t above 0C. It really is 1” tops. SAV gets no snow. CHS gets far less than 6.9” if any at all. Augusta and Macon get maybe half at best of the 13.6”/14.4” this shows.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[GaWx]

0Z Euro:

Snow

 

Sleet:

 

ZR:

[GaWx]

0Z EPS, which is still more important than the operational this far out although operational slowly becoming more important as we inch closer:

about same impressive amounts N areas but lower S areas except for N FL pen. due to what appears to be an even higher % of the total wintry precip as IP/ZR since this is purely snow:

 

[dsaur]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z Euro:

Snow

 

Sleet:

 

ZR:

Well, at least it's back under an inch.  Seems like zr is similar to earthquakes in that for every half inch the destruction is 4 to 6 fold.

[GaWx]

Right you are, Tony! History says that that run’s ZR was extremely likely to have been overdone.

 Qpf for EPS:

0Z small drop vs 12Z

 

12Z was slightly wetter

[BornAgain13]

0z Euro was suppression City compared to 12z. 0z EPS still solid!

[BornAgain13]

Foot+ here on the CMC... UK was gonna be a big dog as well.

[metalicwx367]

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z EPS, which is still more important than the operational this far out although operational slowly becoming more important as we inch closer:

about same impressive amounts N areas but lower S areas except for N FL pen. due to what appears to be an even higher % of the total wintry precip as IP/ZR since this is purely snow:

 

Yep definitely more freezing rain being depicted down here on this run.

Next week is gonna be a fun one. I'm supposed to fly out back to Australia on 22nd and the town I'm based in might be impacted by a significant tropical cyclone. Fun tracking tropical cyclone threat back in Australia and rare winter weather threat down here.

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, metalicwx367 said:

Yep definitely more freezing rain being depicted down here on this run.

Next week is gonna be a fun one. I'm supposed to fly out back to Australia on 22nd and the town I'm based in might be impacted by a significant tropical cyclone. Fun tracking tropical cyclone threat back in Australia and rare winter weather threat down here.

Yeah, that’s not comforting. If you don’t mind would you please post the 12Z EPS total freezing rain so I could compare my and other areas vs the new run?

[Brick Tamland]

2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

0z Euro was suppression City compared to 12z. 0z EPS still solid!

Euro op seems like it wants to make an entrance to the party fashionably late.

[burgertime]

 

16 hours ago, The Alchemist said:

I hope I’m not speaking out of turn as I don’t know the personal ins and outs of most of the posters on this board. I’m more of a lurker than anything else. But I wonder what the chances are of getting Burgertime to do a play-by-play of the European Friday night or Saturday night… It’d be fun for old times sake and really bring some good mojo to the board.  


.

 

16 hours ago, Bevo said:

Ask him @burgertime

I'll see if I can join in on the fun. Only issue is, A I'm a bit rusty on the pbp and B I'm six hours ahead of you guys so the 00z run of the GFS comes out around 4:30 in the morning for me. The setup is certainly exciting, just wish we had the same in my neck of the woods! 

[burgertime]

The best thing about this setup is real honest to goodness cold air to tap into. That's always the biggest issue for folks in the southeast, where is the cold air source? Always a good sign when the there's a chance the PV could give you snow showers just on the front of it. 

[strongwxnc]

5 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Well, we have had all three main models show a big dog at one point. I am getting the feeling that this is somewhat legit. One thing that I am still unsure of is the strength of that high pressure. Really.....1050mb+ ..... If that is not as strong as currently modeled come verification time, then all bets are off. I will be watching to see if the models back off of the strength in the coming days and how much.

I saw a 1060 on one run scanning this morning Cannot recall which model.

[NorthHillsWx]

06z GFS pushes our system into the Yucatán 

[NorthHillsWx]

Not often you see a 1041 parked over central NC

[CentralNC]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Not often you see a 1041 parked over central NC

Yep, looks cold and dry for sure.  Maybe ice after that.

[Tacoma]

Hey history is the NW Trend, it's only normal for the storm to want to come north northeast.  I guess time will tell but storms want to amp up and gain latitude.  I think the models will flip flop for a day or two.