Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[buckeyefan1]

Looks icy to me

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The 18Z Euro AI has the 546 thickness line, often a proxy for the snow/sleet line, way NW of the GFS and near the 12Z Euro from Rome, GA, to the TN/NC line. The majority of the qpf on that 12Z Euro was in the form of ZR for much of GA/SC/NC. So, my guess is that much of the 18Z Euro AI precip is similarly ZR over a good portion of GA/SC/NC near and SE of a line from ATL to GSP to RDU. That’s not surprising with the low close to the SE coast rather than well offshore. This as modeled is very likely not a major snowstorm for most here.

[Prismshine Productions]

The 18Z Euro AI has the 546 thickness line, often a proxy for the snow/sleet line, way NW of the GFS and near the 12Z Euro from Rome, GA, to the TN/NC line. The majority of the qpf on that 12Z Euro was in the form of ZR for much of GA/SC/NC. So, my guess is that much of the 18Z Euro AI precip is similarly ZR over a good portion of GA/SC/NC near and SE of a line from ATL to GSP to RDU. That’s not surprising with the low close to the SE coast rather than well offshore. This as modeled is very likely not a major snowstorm for most here.

But rather a catastrophic ice storm

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[StantonParkHoya]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The 18Z Euro AI has the 546 thickness line, often a proxy for the snow/sleet line, way NW of the GFS and near the 12Z Euro from Rome, GA, to the TN/NC line. The majority of the qpf on that 12Z Euro was in the form of ZR for much of GA/SC/NC. So, my guess is that much of the 18Z Euro AI precip is similarly ZR over a good portion of GA/SC/NC near and SE of a line from ATL to GSP to RDU. That’s not surprising with the low close to the SE coast rather than well offshore. This as modeled is very likely not a major snowstorm for most here.

That low is 50 miles off the coast and weak. Pretty close to benchmark for RDU. I don’t know what we’ve got to do to get a pure snow here anymore. 

[StantonParkHoya]

Just realized the Euro AI is almost 36 hours slower than some of the other models. Think we need this to eject out of the southwest faster. We need a Monday/Tuesday storm for a snow play.

[WiseWeather]

Any model against Brick Storm 2025 we toss at this point.


.

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, WiseWeather said:

Any model against Brick Storm 2025 we toss at this point.


.

I'll go back to yelling at the models again to get them in line.

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Just realized the Euro AI is almost 36 hours slower than some of the other models. Think we need this to eject out of the southwest faster. We need a Monday/Tuesday storm for a snow play.

And we still have a chance for a NW track trend from there though the Siberian high may prevent that. Euro AI didn’t do well too far in advance with the surface pressures and winds. Remember those runs with a clipper low and no wedge/warming S winds ahead of it and on back side of offshore high? That looked very suspect based on history and turned out wrong.

[PackGrad05]

May have been mentioned already, but the high is not in a great placement, at least on the GFS.  Having a high centered over the western US is not good for us.  That super cold dense air has a hard time bleeding over the Apps...

We want the strong high to be to our N/NE to funnel the cold stuff east of the Apps.

[Brick Tamland]

ICON has the storm at the end of the run.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

That would be a nice surprise.

[StantonParkHoya]

This weekend about to sneak up on us.. catch us with the change while we’re hunting the fastball 

[Brick Tamland]

End of the ICON looks similar to the good GFS runs earlier today.

 

[GaWx]

0Z ICON has several inches of snow FL Pandandle/SE AL to C GA to NE SC/SE NC and significant IP/ZR further south. Much of this in SC/SE GA and S SC that is S of the snow is ZR, some of it major amounts of 0.75-1” and it’s not over as of the end of the run as there’s probably another 6-9 hours of precip to go with no warming flow off the ocean due to N winds. Thank goodness it is just a model that’s out 168 hours and realizing this kind of ice hasn’t happened there in much of that area in over 100 years.

[StantonParkHoya]

If we can’t win with a 1041 high in the WV panhandle, I don’t want to winter anymore

[Brick Tamland]

Can't sleep on Monday. Might be the opening act.

[wncsnow]

It's early but the GFS looks like it won't be that amped. It's slower but building back in TX at 159

[Brick Tamland]

Well, now the GFS doesn't have the Monday storm here.

[Brick Tamland]

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

1054 mb high there at corner of MO/KS/NE/IA would be near an all-time record high there. Thus I feel it is likely overdone.

[Brick Tamland]

Back in business.

[gamecockinupstateSC]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

Back in business.

We keep getting different looks but in the end still have a signal and get snow into parts of GA, SC, and NC.  Run after run consistency. I know we all want a Big Dog....but some of us still didn't have the ground covered on the 10th.  I would gladly take this.  Of course, it would be nice to get that Big Dog!

[Thrasher Fan]

Last 3 GFS runs have shown only that a storm is there. Absolutely zero consistency with details.

[wncsnow]

Bit of a strung out mess but eastern areas it's decent

[wncsnow]

Canadian has a bigger storm 

[wncsnow]

[wncsnow]

[Brick Tamland]

GFS was decent. Canadian looks more like the big GFS run before.

[wncsnow]