Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[strongwxnc]

3 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

That's all we can ask for at this point, at least the storm is still showing.

so true..

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I wouldn’t mind looking at them!

18Z GEFS mean snow:

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

18Z GEFS mean snow:

That would be perfect for a northwest trend if it was 2 days out.  

[wncsnow]

Big increase one run, big decrease the next. 

[cbmclean]

This might sound silly but my eyes have been dazzled by all the pretty maps; what is the actual timeframe of the event that we are trying to reel in?  1/21?

[SnowGoose69]

18Z Op Euro was gonna look nothing like the 18Z GFS if it ran past 144, thats for sure

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Big increase one run, big decrease the next. 

We would be better served to look at the medians anyway, as they are not skewed by the outrageous totals of a few outliers.   Not sure if any site provides the medians?

[cbmclean]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

18Z Op Euro was gonna look nothing like the 18Z GFS if it ran past 144, thats for sure

In the MA thread there has been discussion about how bad the GFS has been performing lately, besides the euro, CMC, UKIE, the Euro AI is also trouncing it.  Perhaps time to relegate it to the JV along with the ICON and the JMA.

[BornAgain13]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

18Z Op Euro was gonna look nothing like the 18Z GFS if it ran past 144, thats for sure

Map?

[BooneWX]

Hold all opinions until king NAM comes into range 

[buckeyefan1]

5 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Ya’ll will know it’s real when the EE rule happens

 

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Hold all opinions until king NAM comes into range 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Place is dead

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Place is dead

It’s weird but I think people are gunshy. I love where we sit

[Met1985]

Meh it's pretty simple..there is a strong storm signal..Now just wait and see how things play out daily. 

[snowinnc]

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Place is dead

Everytime I log on and see there have only been a few new replies since I was on hours earlier it makes me nervous!

[The Alchemist]

10 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It’s weird but I think people are gunshy. I love where we sit

Me too, just printed a snow depth gauge...  I can add another piece to measure up to 21 inches...  but I don't want to jinx us...

IMG_5449.HEIC

[EarlGrey]

Lock it in.

[BooneWX]

One mediocre model suite. We’re fine. We lost last weeks storm completely as we approached this range.

[Upstate Tiger]

I am just glad that the 12z suite was awesome and happy hour was not too happy.  

When it’s the opposite, we never seem to score.   

[GaWx]

 Based on my analysis today of individual members’ qpf, 2m temps, and snowfall, I now know for sure that the WB snowfall on the EPS, like on the GEFS, excludes IP and ZR. My biggest concern for here is for significant ZR potential.
 
 The 12Z EPS and 18Z GEFS means have ~0.14”/0.10” of qpf in the form of 10:1 calculated snow, which is itself very high for an ens mean for snow a week out for this area. But what these aren’t showing is that the mean qpf in the form of IP/ZR on the 12Z EPS is an additional whopping ~0.4” and on the 18Z GEFS is ~0.3”. This means that mean IP/ZR producing qpf is ~3 times that for snow on these two runs! So, just looking at snow means for especially from E NC through far N FL, where the IP/ZR is a bit more prevalent on the 18Z GEFS, is deceptive for this threat.

 I very roughly estimate that the IP/ZR qpf breakdown in the deep SE on the 18Z GEFS is 75% ZR. That implies that the mean ZR qpf could very well be 0.25-0.3”, which is quite high for an ensemble mean a week out. Hopefully there wont be a bad icestorm! But unfortunately for the deep SE, that is a significantly higher probability than a big snow based on these latest two ens means. Hopefully that will change.

[GaWx]

 From KCHS first issued this afternoon:

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHERE   
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT   
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL LOW TRACK, POTENTIALLY BEGINNING AS   
EARLY AS TUESDAY. THIS EVENT WOULD BE UNFOLDING IN THE PRESENCE OF   
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS NOTED ABOVE, YIELDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER   
WEATHER. MODEL GUIDANCE, BOTH OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE   
VARIETY, SUGGESTS A THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA   
AND THE REGION AS A WHOLE. IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT CONSIDERABLE   
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, ESPECIALLY REGARDING SUCH IMPORTANT ITEMS AS   
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TYPES, POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, AND   
SPECIFIC IMPACTED AREAS.  
 
 Our local TV forecasters are wisely not yet mentioning this possibility due to too much uncertainty, especially with wintry precip being rare here (it’s been 7 years without even a trace).

[sarcean]

5 hours ago, Cheeznado said:

CLT is very similar to ATL.

Charlotte rarley if ever has same weather as Atlanta winter weather. Last weekend was very rare exception where Atlanta lucked out but it happens.

[doubledub]

From KILM 

Some dryness could be expected behind the front between
Monday and Tuesday before moisture starts to increase again with the
next system from the Gulf, but uncertainty is high on when it will
arrive. Have added the mention of non-liquid precip Tuesday as cold
high pressure ridging down from the north meets increased moisture
from the south ahead of the system. Early next week should be
interesting!

[buckeyefan1]

3 minutes ago, sarcean said:

Charlotte rarley if ever has same weather as Atlanta winter weather. Last weekend was very rare exception where Atlanta lucked out but it happens.

He was talking about the number of members showing snow from the ensembles 

[Brick Tamland]

Everybody needs to rest up now. Plenty of runs and ups and downs to go to reel in the big one.

[BornAgain13]

To get things started off .... The 18z AI is a Major Winter Storm for next week. Of course u can't see precip details but temps are in the 20s during the storm. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BornAgain13]

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

It is a total end to end ice storm