Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[frazdaddy]

40 minutes ago, The Alchemist said:

I hope I’m not speaking out of turn as I don’t know the personal ins and outs of most of the posters on this board. I’m more of a lurker than anything else. But I wonder what the chances are of getting Burgertime to do a play-by-play of the European Friday night or Saturday night… It’d be fun for old times sake and really bring some good mojo to the board.  


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He is in the Netherlands. Time difference issues. I just sent him a text.

[BornAgain13]

12 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

EPS more suppressed.

Don't think the run is finished...

[BooneWX]

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[BornAgain13]

This is a pretty significant jump from 0z

[BornAgain13]

2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

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Some monster hits in their!

[GunBlade]

2 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

That was the overruning storm I alluded to yesterday.  Was in the teens in the Carolinas during the storm with record snow and stayed cold for about a week afterword.  

My family moved from Iowa in 87 and then Charlotte got record snowfalls from that storm in 88 lol. They thought they didn’t get away from the snow. Only took 16 more years to get another storm like that in 2004 hah. Maybe 21 years later we can threepeat 

[BornAgain13]

96 HR EPS for that time period

[Cheeznado]

5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Don't think the run is finished...

Correct. Here are the actual totals:

[frazdaddy]

Burger says he will try to make the Euro tonight

@The Alchemist. @Bevo

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[metalicwx367]

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

The UK I believe was about to bring a big storm!

The US Airforce GALWEM which is based on the UK model was a decent hit for Northern Florida, Central to South Georgia, majority of South Carolina, and central to eastern North Carolina. Pretty much all snow and on the back end of the storm even brings frozen precip down to Orlando and Tampa.

[Cheeznado]

Still about half of the GEFS members are dry. A lot of spread still. As with the last system we will have to wait until the short wave topping the ridge comes into the more data dense regions.

[frazdaddy]

16 minutes ago, metalicwx367 said:

The US Airforce GALWEM which is based on the UK model was a decent hit for Northern Florida, Central to South Georgia, majority of South Carolina, and central to eastern North Carolina. Pretty much all snow and on the back end of the storm even brings frozen precip down to Orlando and Tampa.

Oh my , the band really is back together!

[SnowGoose69]

18 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1/7/1988. 4.2” officially of mainly sleet at KATL and maybe a little less in Dunwoody. Stayed on the ground for a long time!

 Opposite (sort of) occurred 2/1979. Was expected to be mainly snow and ended up almost all sleet (4.2” also at KATL!!) after no more than first hour or so of snow.

I recall 88, the warm nose was totally missed.  I also remember one in the early 90s, forecast was basically nothing and there was 5 inches at ATL.  I think it was supposed to miss well to the south in Macon.

[weatherfide]

5 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Still about half of the GEFS members are dry. A lot of spread still. As with the last system we will have to wait until the short wave topping the ridge comes into the more data dense regions.

Are they dry or sleet or freezing rain?

 

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

96 HR EPS for that time period

I’ve saved a lot of EPS mean snow maps with lots of snow and this one easily takes the cake for the heaviest overall from E half of NC to the Gulf coast, especially this far out! This is massive for being 7 days out, especially in those areas. Some of the members start as snow as early as late afternoon on Mon (1/20).

[Brick Tamland]

Canadian ensembles are going to be good, too.

[HKY_WX]

To those worrying about rain. I think the margin for error on the models here will be more towards the east given the degree of cold. This airmass is Siberian in nature due to the +PNA/Cross Polar flow. It's been a while since we've seen a HP quite like this sitting over the Plaines. Not saying it can't/won't be ice, but I think an OTS solution is more likely than an Apps cutter, for example.

[GaWx]

12Z 1/3/24 EPS 7 days before 1/10 storm (ignore VA/KY and further north snow as that was from an earlier storm):

 

12Z 1/14/24 EPS 7 days before projected 1/21 storm:

[Upstate Tiger]

26 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I recall 88, the warm nose was totally missed.  I also remember one in the early 90s, forecast was basically nothing and there was 5 inches at ATL.  I think it was supposed to miss well to the south in Macon.

Proabably Saturday 1/17/92.  Did not get a drop in the upstate while central Ga got 5"

[Brick Tamland]

Canadian ensembles mean.

[StantonParkHoya]

I can’t underscore for folks enough how big and wild a 3.5-4 inch ensemble mean across all models is for coastal NC at 7 days 

[Prismshine Productions]

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Ens 45 is a dead ringer 1973 redux

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Cheeznado]

EPS members similar to the GEFS, aprrox half have no snow or little snow, there are 14 members with> 4" here.

[NorthHillsWx]

These are the best ensembles we may have ever seen at this range. Unbelievable trends today on that front. 

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, Cheeznado said:

EPS members similar to the GEFS, aprrox half have no snow or little snow, there are 14 members with> 4" here.

Because you’re using ATL as the marker, wonder how many of those dry there still have snow in the east

[Cheeznado]

14 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Because you’re using ATL as the marker, wonder how many of those dry there still have snow in the east

I checked a number of stations in NC and SC, all have ~50% with over .5" of snow, but more big hits than ATL.

[ATDoel]

10 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

EPS members similar to the GEFS, aprrox half have no snow or little snow, there are 14 members with> 4" here.

What does it look like for Birmingham, similar?

[Cheeznado]

6 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

What does it look like for Birmingham, similar?

A few more dry runs than ATL, (or specifically PDK).

[buckeyefan1]