Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It would be more snow or sleet probably given the quality of the air mass in place ahead of it, that degree of ZR makes no sense really in that setup taken literally

Not saying it's right, and we all know to take soundings on Day 8 with much salt, but 700mb to 900mb is above 0c in NC

[BornAgain13]

5-6" of Snow/Sleet with ZR on top of it. I'll take lol

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

That much freezing rain and still almost 6 inches of snow here. One thing for sure, there is a VERY strong signal for a big storm.

[buckeyefan1]

Ya’ll will know it’s real when the EE rule happens

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Doesn't the Euro have a bias for amping it up and being too warm in this range?

No. It and the models as a whole are cold biased, which is why the storms often track NW and temps are often not as cold as one gets closer. But there are always exceptions. Nobody knows if this will be an exception, but it is a much different setup vs last week’s storm.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Not saying it's right, and we all know to take soundings on Day 8 with much salt, but 700mb to 900mb is above 0c in NC

KRDU at 204 @SnowGoose69

 

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

KRDU at 204 @SnowGoose69

 

Ouch.  Now THAT is a warm nose.  It's like 55 F at 800 HP.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

No

It did from about 96-140 before the most recent upgrade.  This winter season so far that bias seems to be gone

[NorthHillsWx]

EURO with an inland track. That’s why it’s an ice storm. Y’all better hope that NW trend stops I’ve seen this tune before 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

KRDU at 204 @SnowGoose69

 

Ouch

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

EURO with an inland track. That’s why it’s an ice storm. Y’all better hope that NW trend stops I’ve seen this tune before 

Still a lot of time for some waffling back and forth.

[cbmclean]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

Still a lot of time for some waffling back and forth.

Yeah but it generally tends to waffle more back and less forth,

 

Needless to say, we are rooting for the GFS solution against the Euro, which is not a nice place to be :(.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

EURO with an inland track. That’s why it’s an ice storm. Y’all better hope that NW trend stops I’ve seen this tune before 

Its more likely given the setup in place this takes more of an 89 or 73 track than it does coming way NW.  I'd lean more towards this being a storm from coastal NC back through SC/GA/AL/MS now than I would TN/NC/VA but its still far out

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Ouch.  Now THAT is a warm nose.  It's like 55 F at 800 HP.

 

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Ouch

Ofc it's just taking the sounding verbatim.  But that's why it's showing freezing rain 

[BornAgain13]

Ouch, Durham with Freezing Rain at 25 degrees.... That is a catastrophic ICE event. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

Still a lot of time for some waffling back and forth.

There is but I’m just saying, we have seen these cold pushes over modeled time and time again this storm is going to ride that edge and I am becoming more and more concerned it’s inland. Honestly the suppressed runs yesterday gave me hope 

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It did from about 96-140 before the most recent upgrade.  This winter season so far that bias seems to be gone

Thanks. Regardless, the Euro was too cold further out  or 7-10 days before last week’s storm. Remember those runs with single digits at ATL, for example? Also, storm tracks for that storm out 7+ days were much further SE than what verified. But we’re now getting right to day 7/crucial forecast time. It did much better for last week’s storm at 96-140, consistent with what you said. But we’re not there yet. By late tomorrow we will be getting to 140.

 This as you’ve implied is a much different setup with a much colder Siberian high that is progged to be 20 mb stronger to our north/NW vs the weak and weakening high for last week’s storm.

[Cheeznado]

I do NOT!!!!! wantt the Euro to come anywhere close to verifying, it woulds be an unmitigated disaster for many. I had no power for 10 hours with .3" of ZR with this last system, imagine the chaos if this verifies.  It better be more suppressed, all snow or dry would suit me and many many other people better.

[NorthHillsWx]

For my money I bet central/northern VA get this storm. It just wants to snow there this year 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

I do NOT!!!!! wantt the Euro to come anywhere close to verifying, it woulds be an unmitigated disaster for many. I had no power for 10 hours with .3" of ZR with this last system, imagine the chaos if this verifies.  It better be more suppressed, all snow or dry would suit me and many many other people better.

I think you'd see sleet there.  I recall the Feb 2014 event I was forecasting for the SE and we all thought it would be ZR but the air mass was just so cold aloft the warm nose did not verify as strong and that to me was more a wedging setup, this looks like a classic slider storm at the moment more so with a high located in a better spot than it was last week

[Cheeznado]

EPS more suppressed.

[Cheeznado]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think you'd see sleet there.  I recall the Feb 2014 event I was forecasting for the SE and we all thought it would be ZR but the air mass was just so cold aloft the warm nose did not verify as strong and that to me was more a wedging setup, this looks like a classic slider storm at the moment more so with a high located in a better spot than it was last week

There was a storm back in the 80s or maybe early 90's here where there was supposed to be a huge ice storm, and we got 3" or so of sleet

[Tacoma]

The NW Trend seems to never fail.

 

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think you'd see sleet there.  I recall the Feb 2014 event I was forecasting for the SE and we all thought it would be ZR but the air mass was just so cold aloft the warm nose did not verify as strong and that to me was more a wedging setup, this looks like a classic slider storm at the moment more so with a high located in a better spot than it was last week

 Thanks. Here’s my personal experience.
I was in Dunwoody for the 2/2014 storm. It started as rain that quickly changed to ZR. Fortunately, the ZR lasted only a few hours and was fairly light. It changed to a long period of sleet (~1”, my 3rd highest there) followed by snow to end it.
 But the southside (airport to Tony) eastward to Augusta wasn’t so lucky as they had majority ZR and major problems. The Eisenhower Tree at Augusta National fell because of it.

 We’re you then in ATL area?

[BooneWX]

.

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

There was a storm back in the 80s or maybe early 90's here where there was supposed to be a huge ice storm, and we got 3" or so of sleet

1/7/1988. 4.2” officially of mainly sleet at KATL and maybe a little less in Dunwoody. Stayed on the ground for a long time!

 Opposite (sort of) occurred 2/1979. Was expected to be mainly snow and ended up almost all sleet (4.2” also at KATL!!) after no more than first hour or so of snow.

[PackGrad05]

The storm can only cut so much with that much high pressure


.

[Brick Tamland]

4 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

.

All the ensembles are looking good, too.

[Upstate Tiger]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1/7/1988. 4.2” officially of mainly sleet at KATL and maybe a little less in Dunwoody. Stayed on the ground for a long time!

That was the overruning storm I alluded to yesterday.  Was in the teens in the Carolinas during the storm with record snow and stayed cold for about a week afterword.