Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

UK doesn't go out far enough but it sure looks primed for a storm as well.

The UK I believe was about to bring a big storm!

[BornAgain13]

12z GEFS has the storm but a small step back from 6z

[dsaur]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Here’s 12Z GFS sleet for all to look at and especially for @dsaur

Surely with a look like this storm is showing I can do better than that, lol.  I need two inches of sleet, under foot of  snow, to make it memorable...and at least 20 below after to make it all into a Brick.  Thanks for the heads up, though, lol.

[BooneWX]

This whole setup is much simpler to score in. Pretty typical SE winter storm look across the board. Yall get some sleep tonight or buy Red Bull. Could be a long 5-6 days. 

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

This whole setup is much simpler to score in. Pretty typical SE winter storm look across the board. Yall get some sleep tonight or buy Red Bull. Could be a long 5-6 days. 

Would love to see the Euro show what the EPS was showing... I have a feeling the euro will be suppressed today but maybe not...

[GaWx]

GFS runs with significant SE coastal wintry precip within 1/21-2:

Jan 11 6Z and 12Z

Jan 12 6Z and 18Z

Jan 13 0Z, 6Z, 12Z, 18Z

Jan 14 0Z, 6Z, 12Z

So, 11 of last 14 and 8 in a row!

 The 12Z CMC has ZR later, on 1/23-4, with it still falling some areas especially just inland at the end (fortunately only light along coast SAV northeastward):

[BornAgain13]

6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z GEFS has the storm but a small step back from 6z

Well, maybe not to much of a step back just a little later... Still a big run NC and VA

[CaryWx]

7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Well, maybe not to much of a step back just a little later... Still a big run NC and VA

Yeah, some of the ensembles have the storm just further back west

[WinstonSalemArlington]

CFS: wall-to-wall cold through President’s Day

https://x.com/chazzzwx/status/1879199881199489370

[SnowGoose69]

The main idea for areas in the SE is to have the wave that hits New England be weak or develop late, if its early like the Euro has had or it just is too strong it will sharpen up the trof from Texas to the East Coast and hence you won't have the broader meridional look you see on the GFS to allow a storm to ride out of that area along the Gulf.  The CMC develops the storm so late and far north it does not have a ton of impact on the orientation though it does not have the broad extended trof the GFS has

[Brick Tamland]

[BornAgain13]

12z EURO with a massive Winter Storm... But it's warmer than the GFS... It's an upper SE, Mid Atlantic special

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z EURO with a massive Winter Storm... But it's warmer than the GFS... It's an upper SE, Mid Atlantic special

12Z Euro as you said now has a winter storm back (1st since 12Z run on 1/12):

Snow:

 

Sleet:

 

ZR:

[wncsnow]

What a huge mess on the Euro. That would be an incredible ice storm. 

[BornAgain13]

SW VA and Central and Northern VA are the big Snowfall Winners per EURO. Huge Mess and ICE storm elsewhere 

[Brick Tamland]

Glad to just see the Euro has the storm again. I'd gladly take what it's showing here. 

[wncsnow]

That would be the worst ice storm in SC history. With their no real blocking in place, an ice storm is a legit possibility if this storms amps up enough.. there should be a ton of low level dry arctic air. 

[The Alchemist]

I hope I’m not speaking out of turn as I don’t know the personal ins and outs of most of the posters on this board. I’m more of a lurker than anything else. But I wonder what the chances are of getting Burgertime to do a play-by-play of the European Friday night or Saturday night… It’d be fun for old times sake and really bring some good mojo to the board.  


.

[Bevo]

1 minute ago, The Alchemist said:

I hope I’m not speaking out of turn as I don’t know the personal ins and outs of most of the posters on this board. I’m more of a looker than anything else. But I wonder what the chances are of getting Burgertime old times to do a play-by-play of the European Friday night or Saturday night… It’d be fun for old times sake and really bring some good mojo to the board.


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Ask him @burgertime

[ATDoel]

man I would love to see how the models are handling this system vs the last one this far out 

[NorthHillsWx]

What’d I miss at 12z??? Place seems active 

[wncsnow]

Here she comes 

[wncsnow]

[wncsnow]

Never seen this much ZR 

[wncsnow]

[SnowGoose69]

11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

What a huge mess on the Euro. That would be an incredible ice storm. 

It would be more snow or sleet probably given the quality of the air mass in place ahead of it, that degree of ZR makes no sense really in that setup taken literally

[wncsnow]

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

It would be more snow or sleet probably given the quality of the air mass in place ahead of it, that degree of ZR makes no sense really in that setup taken literally

Doesn't the Euro have a bias for amping it up and being too warm in this range?

[wncsnow]

[wncsnow]