snowmaker13 Posted yesterday at 03:45 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:45 AM 11 minutes ago, GaWx said: 0Z Icon is significantly colder run vs runs from 12/24 hours ago. Coldest of season by far 1/20-1 and bone dry/no nearby surface low. Has lows on 1/21 of 10/9 at ATL/RDU! The plumbers would be busy! Minn/SPaul highs below 0F 1/19-20! Chicago barely gets above 0F on 1/20! Most of TN highs on 1/20 only in teens! Does the ICON have ensembles? Would be interested on those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 03:48 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:48 AM 2 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: Does the ICON have ensembles? Would be interested on those. If so I have no access to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted yesterday at 03:57 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:57 AM 9 minutes ago, GaWx said: If so I have no access to them. Darn. Would be cool to see them though. No low at all on the OP model? ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 04:24 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:24 AM 0Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 04:27 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:27 AM 0Z GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 04:30 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:30 AM 0Z GFS has 12/1989 or 1/2018: chances of this actually occurring with these amounts on or near the coast…history says small; but note that these types of runs haven’t yet gone away 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted yesterday at 04:31 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:31 AM Excellent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted yesterday at 04:31 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:31 AM 5 hours ago, fig said: Right where I want it this time next week, personally! Me, too! But, I’m not looking at any deterministic runs until we’re inside 186 hours and even then, we need to be within 96 hours to really trust the signal. Still a long ways to go. That said, it’s better to see something at 200 hours than nothing at all. Just trying to keep things in their proper perspective. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted yesterday at 04:38 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:38 AM 9 minutes ago, GaWx said: 0Z GFS Quick off-topic question: Is WeatherBell that much better than Weather Models? I just purchased access to the latter this evening based on a few others preference for it. I really like the looks of these WxBell graphics you’re posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted yesterday at 04:40 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:40 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted yesterday at 04:41 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:41 AM Incoming GFS at Day 10/11... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 04:42 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:42 AM 2 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: Quick off-topic question: Is WeatherBell that much better than Weather Models? I just purchased access to the latter this evening based on a few others preference for it. I really like the looks of these WxBell graphics you’re posting. I’m not really familiar with WxModels to be able to compare them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted yesterday at 04:47 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:47 AM 20 minutes ago, GaWx said: 0Z GFS has 12/1989 or 1/2018: chances of this actually occurring with these amounts on or near the coast…history says small; but note that these types of runs haven’t yet gone away Snow hole over AVL. Must verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted yesterday at 05:02 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:02 AM Trends are out friends 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted yesterday at 05:12 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:12 AM 10 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: Trends are out friends Yes, starting to trend back NW to the original runs Sunday after being suppressed Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 05:16 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:16 AM GFS runs with significant SE coastal wintry precip within 1/21-2: Jan 11 6Z and 12Z Jan 12 6Z and 18Z Jan 13 0Z, 6Z, 12Z, 18Z Jan 14 0Z So, 9 of last 12 and 6 in a row! Normally when the models tease this area the NW trend takes the wintry precip away as it gets closer. That has yet to happen at all in this case. The coastal wintry GFS runs for 1/21-2 started at just over 10 days out. We’re now down to 7.5 days out and there’s no NW trend yet. The prior threat trended NW enough to end the coastal threat by 6 days out. If this doesn’t trend NW by during the Wednesday runs, this would be looking like a totally different situation. It already looks suspiciously different and I wonder if it is due to the Siberian high/extreme cold making this a different situation. 12/1989 and 1/2018 also had extreme cold to the north feeding those coastal storms. Edit: 2 of the last 6 Euro 0Z/12Z runs have had it then, both on 1/12: 0Z and the insane 12Z. The two on 1/13 were dry. The 0Z 1/14, just out, is also dry. No CMC runs through 0Z 1/14 have had it yet. So, since 1/13, GFS has been on an island. @Awesomesauce81 @gtg947h 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 05:49 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:49 AM GEFS: 0Z vs 12Z 12Z 0Z big increase in S VA, NC, SC, GA, and Gulf coast! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted yesterday at 06:00 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:00 AM 9 minutes ago, GaWx said: GEFS: 0Z vs 12Z 12Z 0Z big increase in S VA, NC, SC, GA, and Gulf coast! Why do these half county sized patches of heavier precip appear on these models? Is it just a black cat in the matrix, or is there some alogarithmic reason for them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 06:06 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:06 AM 9 minutes ago, dsaur said: Why do these half county sized patches of heavier precip appear on these models? Is it just a black cat in the matrix, or is there some alogarithmic reason for them? Tony, It’s because those half county areas are on the border between one category and the adjacent one. They’re barely in the higher category. For example, that one county N of Columbus with the higher category is likely only barely above 1” vs their neighbors barely under 1”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted yesterday at 06:31 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:31 AM 0z runs greatly improved 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted yesterday at 06:34 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:34 AM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx367 Posted yesterday at 06:38 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:38 AM 2 hours ago, snowmaker13 said: Does the ICON have ensembles? Would be interested on those. Yes on Pivotalweather.com. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=iconens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2025011400&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted yesterday at 06:41 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:41 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted yesterday at 06:43 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:43 AM 1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: @Brick Tamlandstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted yesterday at 06:45 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:45 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 06:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:54 AM Big increases on 0Z ensemble snow means throughout SE on GEFS, EPS, and GEPS for 1/21-2 vs 12Z: EPS: 12Z 0Z CMC ens: 12Z 0Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted yesterday at 07:22 AM Share Posted yesterday at 07:22 AM Euro Ens gunning for a @Brick Tamlandspecial! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 1) EPS 0Z 1/3/24 EPS (7 days before 1/10 storm): amounts were dropping then: Compare that to 0Z 1/14/24 EPS (7 days before potential 1/21/24 threat): much higher most of GA, SC, NC especially E NC to FL panhandle and with substantial increase since 12Z: 2) GEFS 0Z 1/3/24 GEFS (7 days before 1/10 storm): amounts were dropping then: Compare that to 0Z 1/14/24 GEFS (7 days before potential 1/21/24 threat): much higher ALL of GA, SC, NC, and FL panhandle and with substantial increase since 12Z: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 06z GFS about to go boom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 06z GFS has a massive winter storm for the entire SE. like massive. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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